Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $32.215 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $32.215Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ENPH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance: Enphase Energy's projected revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025, guided between $310 million and $350 million, significantly missed analyst expectations, which were around $374.4 million to $385.8 million. This shortfall in outlook was a primary driver of the stock's negative movement.
2. Weakening Demand in Europe: Management specifically cited a softening in demand within the European market as a contributing factor to the lower-than-expected revenue guidance for Q4 2025.
3. Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Margins: The company indicated that reciprocal tariffs were negatively affecting its profitability, with an anticipated approximately 5 percentage points drag on the non-GAAP gross margin for Q4 2025.
4. Preliminary Weak Q1 2026 Outlook: Beyond the immediate quarter, Enphase Energy's preliminary forecast for Q1 2026 revenue was also notably weak, estimated around $250 million. This was attributed to expected seasonal weakness and a deliberate channel destocking process extending into 2026, further dampening investor sentiment.
5. Stalling U.S. Electrification Trends and Policy Concerns: Market watchers expressed caution due to perceived stalling U.S. electrification trends and the potential impact of evolving policy landscapes, including the accelerated phasing out of key renewable energy tax credits starting in 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ENPH Return | 572% | 4% | 45% | -50% | -48% | -52% | 26% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ENPH Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 33% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ENPH Max Drawdown | -8% | -35% | -34% | -71% | -55% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SEDG, TSLA, GNRC, RUN, SPWR. See ENPH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ENPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 344.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 120 days |
Compare to FSLR, RUN, SEDG, CSIQ, MAXN
In The Past
Enphase Energy's stock fell -77.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -77.5% loss requires a 344.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ENPH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.3% | -22.3% | -36.9% |
| 11302024 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -42.0% | -59.6% | -63.4% |
| 08312023 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.4% | -4.3% | -40.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.3% | -22.3% | -36.9% |
| 11302024 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -42.0% | -59.6% | -63.4% |
| 08312023 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.4% | -4.3% | -40.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Enphase Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,915 |
| Op Inc LTM | 77 |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 405 |
| CFO LTM | 173 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 518 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | -12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -42.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -111.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -15.1% | -21.0% | -24.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -14.2% | -21.2% | -16.0% |
| 4/22/2025 | -15.6% | -10.7% | -11.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.5% | -5.5% | -11.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | -14.9% | -9.9% | -31.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | 12.8% | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| 4/23/2024 | -5.6% | -4.2% | 6.8% |
| 2/6/2024 | 16.9% | 22.9% | 29.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 12.0% | 13.5% | 17.6% |
| Median Negative | -14.2% | -10.3% | -17.4% |
| Max Positive | 42.4% | 37.0% | 47.1% |
| Max Negative | -25.7% | -30.7% | -40.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |