Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $115.9 | Market Cap: $24.0 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $115.9Market Cap: $24.0 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordability & Value Retail. Themes include Discount Retail, and Value-Oriented Consumer Goods. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordability & Value Retail. Themes include Discount Retail, and Value-Oriented Consumer Goods. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -21% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DLTR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the recent movement in Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat and Revenue Growth: Dollar Tree reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.21 for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, significantly surpassing the forecasted $1.09. The company's revenue also saw a healthy increase of 9.4% year-over-year, reaching $4.7 billion, which met market expectations.
2. Raised Full-Year Fiscal 2025 Outlook: Following the strong quarterly performance, Dollar Tree raised its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $5.60 to $5.80, up from its previous forecast. The company also increased its net sales expectations to between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DLTR Return | 15% | 30% | 1% | 0% | -47% | 55% | 23% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 81% | -5% | 6% | 10% | 49% | 296% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DLTR Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 60% | 48% | 55% | 53% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DLTR Max Drawdown | -30% | -22% | -10% | -27% | -57% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -12% | -36% | -27% | -24% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROST, DG, DDS, CTRN, WMT. See DLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DLTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 369 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 504 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ROST, DG, DDS, CTRN, WMT
In The Past
Dollar Tree's stock fell -40.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.5% loss requires a 68.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DLTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dollar Tree
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 120.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.8 |
| Rev LTM | 16,637 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,621 |
| FCF LTM | 1,684 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,109 |
| CFO LTM | 2,699 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,574 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 25.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.7 |
| P/E | 15.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 59.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 46.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Tree | 16,770 | 15,406 | 13,922 | 13,265 | 12,508 |
| Other revenue | 11 | 6 | 11 | 1 | |
| Corporate, support and Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Family Dollar | 12,388 | 12,243 | 11,103 | ||
| Total | 16,781 | 15,412 | 26,321 | 25,509 | 23,611 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Tree | 2,279 | 2,536 | 1,607 | 1,598 | 1,670 |
| Corporate, support and Other | -504 | -436 | -339 | -366 | -333 |
| Family Dollar | 543 | 656 | -75 | ||
| Total | 1,774 | 2,099 | 1,811 | 1,888 | 1,262 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6042025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3262025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3202024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11292023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8242023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5252023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3102023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8252022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3152022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |