DEFSEC Technologies (DFSC)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $3.67 | Market Cap: $2.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
DEFSEC Technologies (DFSC)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $3.67Market Cap: $2.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 166% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -209% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Autonomous Technologies, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Network Security, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -212%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -216% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 166% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Autonomous Technologies, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Network Security, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -209% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -212%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -216% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DFSC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 4.5% movement in DEFSEC Technologies (DFSC) stock for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 8, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2025 Financial Results.
DEFSEC Technologies reported robust financial results for its fiscal third quarter of 2025 on August 13, 2025, just prior to the specified period. The company announced a 330% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $1.4 million, and an 879% surge in gross margin to $0.4 million. This growth was primarily attributed to Land C4ISR government contracts and the performance of its ARWEN® product line, setting a positive tone for the stock.
2. Significant Increase in Annualized Billings for Government Services.
On December 5, 2025, DEFSEC Technologies announced substantial momentum in its government services sector. The company projects its annualized program billings to increase to approximately CAD$8.3 million starting February 2026, a significant rise from the CAD$5.1 million reported on October 29, 2025. This represents a 704% increase compared to FY2024 programmatic revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DFSC Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | -11% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 44% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DFSC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DFSC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
DFSC has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1463 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DFSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for DEFSEC Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 111 |
| Op Inc LTM | -9 |
| FCF LTM | -9 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1 |
| CFO LTM | -9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 86.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 56.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 37.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -209.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -348.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -160.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -357.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -181.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -388.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.5 |
| P/E | -264.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.8 |
| Total Yield | -9.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 211.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 370.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 38.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 198.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 440.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5162025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12302024 | 20-F 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8152024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 1222024 | 20-F 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 1272023 | 20-F 9/30/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |