Tearsheet

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $5.965 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $5.965
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0%
3   Key risks
CTOS key risks include [1] a highly leveraged capital structure with a substantial debt load and [2] declining demand and revenue volatility from its heavy concentration in the utility end market.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0%
6 Key risks
CTOS key risks include [1] a highly leveraged capital structure with a substantial debt load and [2] declining demand and revenue volatility from its heavy concentration in the utility end market.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CTOS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss

Custom Truck One Source reported its Q3 2025 earnings on October 27, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.03, missing analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.02. Quarterly revenue also increased by 7.8% year-over-year to $482.06 million, falling below analyst estimates of $492.12 million. This earnings miss likely contributed to negative sentiment. 2. Q2 2025 Performance Below Expectations and Revised Guidance

In early August 2025, the company's Q2 2025 results were released and came in below market expectations. Following this, management lowered its multi-year internal growth outlook, leading analysts to cut earnings assumptions for 2025 to 2027 and revise their ratings.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CTOS Return79%9%-21%-2%-22%24%45%
Peers Return4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CTOS Win Rate67%67%42%58%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CTOS Max Drawdown-57%-11%-41%-25%-50%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, URI, FAST, FERG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCTOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven139.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven260 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-71.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven247.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven521 days120 days

Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FAST, FERG


In The Past

Custom Truck One Source's stock fell -58.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -58.2% loss requires a 139.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)

Better Bets than Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CTOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Custom Truck One Source

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CTOSWSOUHALURIFASTFERGMedian
NameCustom T.Watsco U-Haul United R.Fastenal Ferguson. 
Mkt Price5.96347.8351.65812.4242.35228.85140.25
Mkt Cap1.413.210.152.148.644.929.0
Rev LTM1,9377,4145,97215,9867,99831,1597,706
Op Inc LTM1327347004,0091,6162,7891,175
FCF LTM-124517-1,8204509651,647484
FCF 3Y Avg-278540-1,7174461,0691,765493
CFO LTM3455491,6204,9821,2101,9931,415
CFO 3Y Avg1325731,5334,8121,2792,1451,406

Growth & Margins

CTOSWSOUHALURIFASTFERGMedian
NameCustom T.Watsco U-Haul United R.Fastenal Ferguson. 
Rev Chg LTM7.4%-0.7%5.9%6.7%6.9%4.9%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.9%1.0%0.5%13.2%5.5%1.6%3.6%
Rev Chg Q7.8%-4.3%3.7%5.9%11.7%5.1%5.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%-1.2%1.0%1.5%2.9%1.3%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM6.8%9.9%11.7%25.1%20.2%9.0%10.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.1%10.2%16.6%26.5%20.4%8.9%13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.1%-0.6%-0.4%0.1%0.2%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM17.8%7.4%27.1%31.2%15.1%6.4%16.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.9%7.7%26.5%32.2%16.9%7.1%12.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.4%7.0%-30.5%2.8%12.1%5.3%4.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-15.1%7.3%-29.6%2.9%14.2%5.9%4.4%

Valuation

CTOSWSOUHALURIFASTFERGMedian
NameCustom T.Watsco U-Haul United R.Fastenal Ferguson. 
Mkt Cap1.413.210.152.148.644.929.0
P/S0.71.81.73.36.11.41.7
P/EBIT9.317.916.212.830.016.616.4
P/E-55.425.243.520.639.623.024.1
P/CFO3.924.06.310.540.222.516.5
Total Yield-1.8%7.5%2.6%5.7%4.5%4.4%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.5%0.3%0.9%2.0%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-24.9%3.4%-14.2%0.9%2.7%-0.9%
D/E1.80.00.80.30.00.10.2
Net D/E1.8-0.00.60.30.00.10.2

Returns

CTOSWSOUHALURIFASTFERGMedian
NameCustom T.Watsco U-Haul United R.Fastenal Ferguson. 
1M Rtn10.6%3.3%2.1%1.6%6.1%-3.4%2.7%
3M Rtn3.1%-10.0%-8.3%-13.5%-10.5%0.1%-9.2%
6M Rtn25.5%-16.3%-16.1%15.6%4.5%6.8%5.6%
12M Rtn20.9%-26.3%-27.1%13.4%15.6%30.1%14.5%
3Y Rtn-1.3%51.2%-12.7%139.1%91.5%-51.2%
1M Excs Rtn6.7%0.7%1.7%-0.4%4.2%-6.2%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-3.1%-12.5%-10.3%-15.8%-11.8%-3.5%-11.0%
6M Excs Rtn10.0%-31.2%-29.6%0.4%-9.9%-6.6%-8.2%
12M Excs Rtn4.4%-42.7%-41.6%-4.9%-1.5%12.9%-3.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-78.2%-29.6%-91.5%56.8%13.1%--29.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Truck and Equipment Sales (TES)9907705902547
Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS)726661460211217
Aftermarket Parts and Services (APS)14914211766 
Total1,8651,5731,167303264


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,785,393
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.5%
Average Daily Volume942,313
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.96
Basic Shares Quantity226,560,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/2025-10.7%-13.8%-8.5%
7/30/20258.6%2.5%7.2%
3/4/202520.1%22.1%9.5%
10/30/20243.0%25.9%50.6%
8/1/2024-12.7%-8.8%-12.0%
3/7/2024-17.7%-14.5%-5.6%
11/7/2023-18.2%-15.1%-2.8%
8/8/20231.8%-1.1%1.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive978
# Negative798
Median Positive4.1%10.3%6.8%
Median Negative-12.7%-8.8%-5.8%
Max Positive20.1%25.9%50.6%
Max Negative-18.2%-15.1%-12.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/31/2021