Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
Market Price (9/30/2026): $9.2 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
Market Price (9/30/2026): $9.2Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 121% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% Key risksCTOS key risks include [1] a highly leveraged capital structure with a substantial debt load and [2] declining demand and revenue volatility from its heavy concentration in the utility end market. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 121% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksCTOS key risks include [1] a highly leveraged capital structure with a substantial debt load and [2] declining demand and revenue volatility from its heavy concentration in the utility end market. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Profit-taking and market re-evaluation after significant gains contributed to the stock's decline. Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) shares experienced a substantial appreciation, rising 53% year-to-date and 51% over the past six months as of September 15, 2026. Following such a strong rally, investors may have engaged in profit-taking, leading to a share price pullback, despite the company reporting record fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $563.4 million, a 10.2% increase year-over-year, and beating analyst EPS estimates by $0.04 with $0.05 per share. This sentiment is underscored by D.A. Davidson noting a 25% decline in shares since the start of summer, calling it a "headscratcher" given the bullish outlook.
2. Elevated valuation metrics made the stock susceptible to a correction. As of early September 2026, CTOS traded with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio ranging from approximately 95x to 105x. This was significantly higher than the Trading Companies & Distributors industry median of 27.1, according to data from September 9, 2026. InvestingPro analysis also indicated the stock appeared overvalued relative to its Fair Value, and AAII assigned CTOS a "D" Value Grade, labeling it as "Expensive" as of September 10, 2026. This high valuation, even amidst strong operational performance, could have prompted investors to reduce their positions.
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Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Profit-taking and market re-evaluation after significant gains contributed to the stock's decline. Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) shares experienced a substantial appreciation, rising 53% year-to-date and 51% over the past six months as of September 15, 2026. Following such a strong rally, investors may have engaged in profit-taking, leading to a share price pullback, despite the company reporting record fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $563.4 million, a 10.2% increase year-over-year, and beating analyst EPS estimates by $0.04 with $0.05 per share. This sentiment is underscored by D.A. Davidson noting a 25% decline in shares since the start of summer, calling it a "headscratcher" given the bullish outlook.
2. Elevated valuation metrics made the stock susceptible to a correction. As of early September 2026, CTOS traded with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio ranging from approximately 95x to 105x. This was significantly higher than the Trading Companies & Distributors industry median of 27.1, according to data from September 9, 2026. InvestingPro analysis also indicated the stock appeared overvalued relative to its Fair Value, and AAII assigned CTOS a "D" Value Grade, labeling it as "Expensive" as of September 10, 2026. This high valuation, even amidst strong operational performance, could have prompted investors to reduce their positions.
3. Persistent concerns regarding high leverage acted as a drag on investor sentiment. Custom Truck One Source continued to carry a notable debt load, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.9x as of fiscal Q2 2026 and approximately $1.66 billion in net debt. While management has stated a goal to reduce the leverage ratio to below 3x by 2027 and has made progress in deleveraging from a recent high of 4.7x a year prior, the elevated debt level remains a point of caution for some analysts and could contribute to volatility and downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.8% change in CTOS stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.58 | 9.22 | -3.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,983 | 2,035 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 1.0 | -5.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 227 | 227 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTOS | -3.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.3% | 32.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.1% | 53.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.8% change in CTOS stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.16 | 9.22 | 28.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,937 | 2,035 | 5.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 1.0 | 23.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 227 | 227 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTOS | 28.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | -4.0% | 54.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.2% change in CTOS stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.14 | 9.22 | 50.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,902 | 2,035 | 7.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 1.0 | 40.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 226 | 227 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTOS | 50.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.8% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.7% | 54.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.4% change in CTOS stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 219.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.71 | 9.22 | 37.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,753 | 2,035 | 16.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 1.1% | -65.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.6 | 97.9 | 219.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 246 | 227 | 8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTOS | 37.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.1% | 43.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 63.2% | 52.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTOS Return | 9% | -21% | -2% | -22% | 20% | 62% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -14% | 13% | -9% | 0% | -9% | 8% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTOS Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 40% | 58% | 42% | 40% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTOS Max Drawdown | -40% | -48% | -37% | -56% | -37% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -31% | -28% | -31% | -35% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UHAL, HTZ, VAI, CTAS, TRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1401 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Custom Truck One Source's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CTOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1401 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Custom Truck One Source's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) is a North American provider of specialized heavy equipment and related services essential for critical infrastructure industries. The company primarily focuses on three core areas: equipment rental, new equipment sales, and aftermarket parts and services, serving a vital role in supporting the ongoing development and maintenance of key infrastructure.
CTOS's offerings include renting a diverse fleet of specialized equipment such as truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, service trucks, dump trucks, trailers, and digger derricks. Beyond rentals, the company also sells new equipment, often modified to meet specific customer operational needs. To ensure equipment longevity and performance, CTOS provides comprehensive aftermarket support, encompassing maintenance, repair services, and the sale of specialized parts. Its primary customer base spans the electric utility (transmission and distribution), telecommunications, and rail sectors, as well as other general infrastructure-related industries across North America.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Custom Truck One Source (CTOS):
- Like United Rentals (URI), but highly specialized in rental equipment for utility, telecom, and infrastructure work.
- A Ryder System (R) or Penske Truck Rental for the highly specialized work vehicles and equipment (including sales, rental, and service) needed by power companies, telecom providers, and infrastructure developers.
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- Equipment Rental Services: Provides rental of specialty equipment such as truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, and digger derricks to various infrastructure-related industries.
- Equipment Sales: Offers new specialty equipment for sale, which can be customized to meet specific customer requirements.
- Aftermarket Parts Sales: Sells specialized aftermarket parts for trucks and other equipment.
- Maintenance and Repair Services: Provides comprehensive maintenance and repair services for trucks and other specialty equipment.
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- Electric utility transmission and distribution companies
- Telecommunications companies
- Rail companies
- Other infrastructure-related industries
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- Altec Industries
- Terex Corporation (TEX)
- Manitex International, Inc. (MNTX)
- PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
- Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTG.DE)
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Ryan McMonagle, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. McMonagle became the Chief Executive Officer of Custom Truck One Source in March 2023. He initially joined Custom Truck as Chief Financial Officer in 2015, following The Blackstone Group's investment in the company. He then served as Chief Operating Officer from 2017 and President from 2021. Prior to his tenure at Custom Truck, Mr. McMonagle held the CFO position at Sound United and DEI Holdings, a portfolio company of Charlesbank Capital Partners. He was also the CFO and Chief Development Officer for Smashburger, a portfolio company of Consumer Capital Partners, showcasing a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms. Mr. McMonagle began his career at Bain and Company.
Christopher Eperjesy, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Eperjesy was appointed Chief Financial Officer in August 2022. Before joining Custom Truck One Source, he served as the Chief Financial Officer of Clarios International Inc., a global energy storage company, from August 2020 to June 2022. From December 2018 to August 2020, he was Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Cooper Tire & Rubber Company. His previous experience also includes serving as CFO for The IMAGINE Group from August 2017 to December 2018 and for Arctic Cat Inc. from February 2015 to April 2017. Earlier in his career, Mr. Eperjesy spent 13 years at Twin Disc Inc., where he held roles including Chief Financial Officer, Vice President of Finance, Treasurer, and Secretary. He began his career as a CPA at Coopers & Lybrand.
Fred Ross, Founder
Mr. Ross founded Custom Truck & Equipment, LLC, the predecessor to Custom Truck One Source, in 1996. He was actively involved in all aspects of the specialty equipment business, growing it into a leading sales and rental company. He served as CEO of Custom Truck & Equipment until affiliates of Blackstone purchased a majority interest in 2015, at which point the business, along with other entities, formed Custom Truck One Source. Mr. Ross continued as CEO of Custom Truck One Source until March 2023, when he transitioned to the role of Founder and continues to serve as a director.
Joseph Ross, President — Sales
Joseph Ross is the President — Sales for Custom Truck One Source.
Thomas Rich, President — Rentals
Thomas Rich serves as the President — Rentals for Custom Truck One Source.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing demand from electric utility, telecommunications, and other infrastructure-related industries for **electric and alternative-fuel heavy equipment** as part of their decarbonization initiatives represents a clear emerging threat. This trend could accelerate the obsolescence of Custom Truck One Source's existing diesel-powered fleet, necessitating substantial capital investment in new equipment and charging infrastructure. Failure to adapt rapidly could lead to reduced demand for their current assets, increased operational costs for fleet transition, and a potential loss of market share as clients prioritize contractors and rental providers with greener equipment solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) operates within several significant addressable markets in North America for its specialty equipment rental, sales, and aftermarket services.
Equipment Rental Solutions
The overall equipment rental market in North America was valued at approximately USD 122.9 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 180.8 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.94% during the forecast period (2024-2032).
- Crane Rental Market (North America): This market was valued at USD 5.55 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 14.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 11.20% from 2025 to 2033.
- Aerial Lift Rental Market (North America): The Aerial Work Platform rental market in North America was valued at USD 20.74 billion in 2023 and is forecast to grow to USD 29.5 billion by 2028 at a CAGR of 5.99% between 2023 and 2028.
- Digger Derrick Truck Market (North America): The North American digger derrick truck market was valued at USD 800 million in 2024 and is projected to grow substantially to USD 1,200 million by 2035.
Truck and Equipment Sales
The North America Heavy Construction Equipment Market, which includes sales of various machinery such as excavators, loaders, material handling equipment, and specialized machinery, was valued at USD 73.35 billion in 2024. This market is anticipated to reach USD 114.08 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.03% from 2025 to 2033.
Aftermarket Parts and Services
The North America Heavy Equipment Aftermarket Services Market is projected to grow from USD 62.4 billion in 2025 to USD 98.7 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 6.8% during the forecast period. This market encompasses maintenance, repair, spare parts supply, refurbishment, remanufacturing, and technical support.
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Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) anticipates several key drivers for revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Sustained Growth in Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS) Segment: The company expects continued strength and expansion within its Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS) segment, particularly driven by demand in core Transmission & Distribution (T&D) markets. The ERS segment experienced significant revenue growth in the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, with improved average fleet utilization reaching nearly 84%, the highest in almost three years. Management projects further growth within ERS for 2026.
- Expansion of the Rental Fleet: Custom Truck One Source plans for strategic investments in its rental fleet, expecting a net rental fleet investment of approximately $150 million to $170 million in 2026. This investment is anticipated to lead to mid-single-digit net Original Equipment Cost (OEC) growth, directly contributing to increased rental volume and associated revenue.
- Product Portfolio Expansion through Strategic Partnerships: The company is focused on broadening its product offerings through strategic initiatives, such as its recently announced partnership with Hiab. This collaboration is aimed at expanding the product portfolio and fostering long-term revenue growth.
- Growth in Aftermarket Parts and Services: Custom Truck One Source intends to expand its aftermarket service capacity. This expansion is designed to boost revenue generation from truck and equipment maintenance, repair services, and the sale of specialized aftermarket parts.
- Continued Demand for Vocational Vehicles in Truck and Equipment Sales (TES): Despite some quarterly fluctuations, the Truck and Equipment Sales (TES) segment achieved record annual revenue in 2025, propelled by sustained demand for vocational vehicles across its end markets. The company also ended the year with a robust sales order backlog, indicating ongoing demand.
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Share Repurchases
- In January 2025, Custom Truck One Source repurchased 8,143,635 shares of its common stock from affiliates of Energy Capital Partners for approximately $32.57 million.
- The repurchased shares were acquired at $4.00 per share, representing a 23% discount from the stock's closing price on January 29, 2025.
Share Issuance
- In April 2021, Nesco Holdings, Inc. (now Custom Truck One Source, Inc.) completed the acquisition of Custom Truck One Source, L.P., which resulted in a significant increase in shares outstanding from 48.87 million in 2020 to 184.81 million in 2021.
- The number of outstanding shares saw increases from 0.18 billion in 2021 to 0.24 billion in 2023, before decreasing to 0.19 billion in 2025.
Inbound Investments
- The company's formation was significantly impacted by the acquisition of Custom Truck One Source, L.P. by Nesco Holdings, Inc. on April 1, 2021, leading to the rebranding as Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
- Affiliates of Energy Capital Partners were a prior significant investor in the company, evidenced by the share repurchase from them in January 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Net rental fleet investment exceeded $250 million in 2025.
- For 2026, net rental fleet investment is projected to be approximately $150 million to $170 million, a notable reduction from the prior year.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on maintaining and growing the company's rental fleet to support the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, and other infrastructure-related industries, leveraging demand drivers such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and grid modernization.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Support Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTOS | Custom Truck One Source | 5.1% | 97.9x | 45.4% | 48.7% | -1.2% | — |
| CTAS | Cintas | 8.5% | 39.6x | -2.1% | 68.8% | 117.7% | +119pp |
| UNF | UniFirst | 4.6% | 39.8x | 53.6% | 59.5% | 23.9% | +25pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 3.3% | 113.9% | 189.8% | FIX 2283% · STRL 2127% · CDNL 2005% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 87.4% | 59.3% | 175.1% | HOS 40479% · MATX 199% · KEX 175% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 3.8% | 46.8% | 114.3% | CAT 369% · WAB 248% · ALSN 245% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -10.8% | 59.6% | 67.8% | ATI 1036% · FTAI 834% · HWM 651% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 3.8% | 34.4% | 52.9% | DXPE 517% · AIT 289% · WCC 227% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 18.8% | 59.2% | 52.1% | FSTR 141% · CSX 69% · UNP 57% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 13.8% | 48.8% | 49.3% | CRS 1167% · PSIX 1123% · GHM 600% |
| Diversified Support Services ← | 33 | 12.7% | 28.0% | 35.8% | LIME 3206% · TH 417% · WLFC 323% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 37.5% | 1.4% | 30.1% | XPO 266% · R 215% · CVLG 151% |
| Building Products | 33 | -14.1% | 1.4% | 21.6% | LMB 624% · GFF 365% · PPIH 302% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 3.4% | 51.6% | 14.0% | POWL 2392% · BE 1456% · VRT 936% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.7% | 4.9% | -1.0% | RCMT 578% · CSW 135% · DD 76% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -33.9% | 43.0% | -3.5% | UBER 55% · CAR -4% · LYFT -72% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -13.5% | 10.1% | -6.7% | CECO 903% · ADUR 437% · NVRI 315% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 8.8% | -0.6% | -7.0% | BLBD 170% · DE 116% · GENC 55% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -18.0% | -27.1% | -14.2% | HURN 201% · CRAI 78% · GRNQ 39% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -35.1% | -15.8% | -28.9% | EXLS 40% · BR 6% · G -27% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 16.0% | 16.8% | -31.9% | LTM 2814% · UAL 137% · DAL 106% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 15.5% | 18.6% | -32.9% | PBI 175% · TILE 134% · HNI 50% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | -2.0% | -16.7% | -36.6% | BBSI 70% · ADP 46% · KFY 10% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -30.0% | -23.7% | -38.5% | CHRW 94% · FDX 81% · EXPD 67% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -25.4% | 20.5% | -40.5% | CIX 169% · MG 110% · NL 79% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -70.4% | -78.1% | -68.8% | JOBY -40% · ASLE -69% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| CTOS Stock (-11%): Weak 2026 Guidance Sparks Sell-Off | 03/13/2026 | |
| Custom Truck One Source Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| null | 10/17/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| Rev LTM | 6,961 |
| Op Inc LTM | 341 |
| FCF LTM | -113 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -122 |
| CFO LTM | 1,628 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,755 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/06/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.82 | $8.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.2% | 9.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.4% | 46.3% |
| Downside Capture | 185.47 | 137.01 |
| Upside Capture | 27.69 | 157.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.1% | 44.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.38 | 1.61 | 1.52 |
| Up Beta | 3.10 | 2.82 | 1.25 | 1.54 | 2.23 | 1.49 |
| Down Beta | 3.83 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 1.17 | 1.57 |
| Up Capture | -70% | -0% | 103% | 178% | 225% | 308% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 66 | 124 | 361 |
| Down Capture | 133% | 174% | 127% | 126% | 128% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 59 | 120 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTOS | 49.4% | 46.3% | 1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.9% | 17.2% | 0.48 | 54.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 13.0% | 0.90 | 44.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 10.5% | 29.6% | 0.34 | 11.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.5% | 20.8% | 1.52 | -6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 13.6% | -0.02 | 19.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.6% | 44.7% | -0.50 | 17.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTOS | -1.1% | 50.8% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 51.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 44.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.6% | 0.42 | 10.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 34.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 52.4% | 0.46 | 20.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTOS | -0.9% | 54.6% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 36.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/3/2026 | 3.7% | 0.2% | -16.6% |
| 4/27/2026 | 2.6% | 8.8% | 11.4% |
| 3/10/2026 | -11.3% | -3.4% | 9.7% |
| 10/27/2025 | -10.7% | -13.8% | -8.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | 8.6% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | -3.0% | 2.2% | 6.7% |
| 3/4/2025 | 20.1% | 22.1% | 9.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.0% | 25.9% | 50.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -12.0% | -8.0% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 25.9% | 50.6% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -15.1% | -16.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/3/2026 | 3.7% | 0.2% | -16.6% |
| 4/27/2026 | 2.6% | 8.8% | 11.4% |
| 3/10/2026 | -11.3% | -3.4% | 9.7% |
| 10/27/2025 | -10.7% | -13.8% | -8.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | 8.6% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | -3.0% | 2.2% | 6.7% |
| 3/4/2025 | 20.1% | 22.1% | 9.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.0% | 25.9% | 50.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -12.7% | -8.8% | -12.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | -14.9% | -7.8% | -4.1% |
| 3/7/2024 | -17.7% | -14.5% | -5.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | -18.2% | -15.1% | -2.8% |
| 8/8/2023 | 1.8% | -1.1% | 1.2% |
| 5/9/2023 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 12.5% |
| 3/14/2023 | 8.4% | 10.3% | 4.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -15.6% | -6.8% | -0.6% |
| 8/9/2022 | 2.0% | 12.0% | 2.9% |
| 5/10/2022 | -2.9% | 16.9% | 3.2% |
| 3/10/2022 | 3.3% | 13.4% | -2.6% |
| 5/12/2021 | -1.4% | -8.0% | -5.9% |
| 11/9/2020 | 4.1% | 7.2% | 50.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -12.0% | -8.0% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 25.9% | 50.6% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -15.1% | -16.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/15/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/17/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/16/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/28/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net rental fleet investment | Reported | 170.00 Mil | 185.00 Mil | |||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 10.5% | 4.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.10 Bil | 2.15 Bil | 4.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.06 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 SER Revenue | Reported | 850.00 Mil | 862.50 Mil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 852.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 STEM Revenue | Reported | 1.63 Bil | 1.67 Bil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.62 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 16.5% | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 11.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 437.50 Mil | 446.25 Mil | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 427.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Levered free cash flow | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.06 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.06 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 SER Revenue | Reported | 835.00 Mil | 852.50 Mil | |||||
| 2026 STEM Revenue | Reported | 1.58 Bil | 1.62 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 11.5% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 415.00 Mil | 427.50 Mil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 422.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Levered Free Cash Flow | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Rental Fleet Investment | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.06 Bil | 2.12 Bil | 2.4% | Higher New | Actual: 2.02 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 ERS Revenue | Reported | 725.00 Mil | 742.50 Mil | 760.00 Mil | 10.0% | Higher New | Actual: 675.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 TES Revenue | Reported | 1.12 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 1.20 Bil | -1.9% | Lower New | Actual: 1.19 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 APS Revenue | Reported | 155.00 Mil | 157.50 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 155.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 410.00 Mil | 422.50 Mil | 435.00 Mil | 11.2% | Higher New | Actual: 380.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | ||||
| 2026 Levered Free Cash Flow | Reported | 50.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/27/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 1.97 Bil | 2.02 Bil | 2.06 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.02 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 ERS Revenue | Reported | 660.00 Mil | 675.00 Mil | 690.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 675.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 TES Revenue | Reported | 1.16 Bil | 1.19 Bil | 1.21 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.19 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 APS Revenue | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 155.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 155.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 370.00 Mil | 380.00 Mil | 390.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 380.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Custom Truck One Source — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Diversified Support Services Resources |
| Facilities Management Journal (FMJ) |
| Supply Chain Brain |
| Corporate Services News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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