Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.45 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.45Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 170% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 170% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CTOS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Custom Truck One Source reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on October 27, 2025, where total revenue of $482.1 million, despite growing 7.8% year-over-year, fell short of analyst expectations of approximately $490 million.
2. Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, Custom Truck One Source's shares experienced a significant decline, falling 14.7% on October 28, 2025, primarily attributed to the company missing analyst consensus for both revenue and earnings per share.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTOS Return | 79% | 9% | -21% | -2% | -22% | 31% | 54% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 36% | -10% | 40% | 9% | 6% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTOS Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 50% | 28% | 50% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTOS Max Drawdown | -57% | -11% | -41% | -25% | -50% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -2% | -25% | -6% | -8% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 247.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 521 days | 120 days |
Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST
In The Past
Custom Truck One Source's stock fell -58.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -58.2% loss requires a 139.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CTOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Custom Truck One Source
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 153.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,706 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,175 |
| FCF LTM | 484 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 493 |
| CFO LTM | 1,415 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,406 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.4 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 26.8 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10272025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |