Canadian Solar (CSIQ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $23.295 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $23.295Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -20 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 357% | |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 120% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% | ||
| Key risksCSIQ key risks include [1] vulnerability to potentially catastrophic retroactive US tariffs and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions due to its significant manufacturing operations in China, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -20 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 357% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 120% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksCSIQ key risks include [1] vulnerability to potentially catastrophic retroactive US tariffs and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions due to its significant manufacturing operations in China, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CSIQ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) experienced a significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results and Exceeded Guidance. Canadian Solar reported strong Q2 2025 results on August 21, 2025, with a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase in solar module shipments to 7.9 GW, within guidance, and a gross margin of 29.8%, exceeding guidance of 23% to 25%. This strong performance likely set a positive tone for the stock leading into the specified period.
2. Exceeding Q3 2025 Revenue Expectations. On November 13, 2025, Canadian Solar announced its Q3 2025 financial results, reporting revenue of $1.5 billion, which surpassed analyst consensus estimates of $1.37 billion to $1.39 billion. This revenue beat, despite a wider-than-expected earnings loss, led to a significant positive market reaction with pre-market trading showing an upward movement of over 12% and the stock being up over 80% in the month leading to the announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSIQ Return | 132% | -39% | -1% | -15% | -58% | 109% | 5% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSIQ Win Rate | 83% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 25% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSIQ Max Drawdown | -40% | -41% | -28% | -38% | -59% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, FLNC, SPWR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSIQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 233.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 268 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1600.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,306 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
Canadian Solar's stock fell -70.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/21/2021. A -70.1% loss requires a 233.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSIQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canadian Solar
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,888 |
| Op Inc LTM | -33 |
| FCF LTM | -115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -229 |
| CFO LTM | 18 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -14.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | -5.3 |
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | -0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 73.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 61.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Solar Infrastructure (CSI) Solar | 7,231 | 6,976 | 4,372 | 3,105 | 2,591 |
| Recurrent Energy | 498 | 822 | 1,124 | 726 | 719 |
| Elimination and unallocated items | -115 | -329 | -219 | -355 | -109 |
| Total | 7,614 | 7,469 | 5,277 | 3,476 | 3,201 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Solar Infrastructure (CSI) Solar | 456 | 344 | 74 | 253 | 268 |
| Recurrent Energy | 97 | 80 | 97 | 53 | 19 |
| Elimination and unallocated items | -99 | -68 | 19 | -86 | -28 |
| Total | 453 | 356 | 190 | 220 | 259 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8212025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4302025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8222024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4262024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8222023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4182023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5242022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4282022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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