Tearsheet

Cerence (CRNC)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $11.09 | Market Cap: $480.6 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Cerence (CRNC)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $11.09
Market Cap: $480.6 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 347x
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.6%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
  Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 173%
6   Key risks
CRNC key risks include [1] a significant convertible debt maturing in June 2025 straining its financial position, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.6%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 347x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%
7 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0%
10 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 173%
11 Key risks
CRNC key risks include [1] a significant convertible debt maturing in June 2025 straining its financial position, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CRNC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining why Cerence (CRNC) stock moved by 6.6% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025: **1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and Upbeat Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance.** Cerence reported robust financial performance for its fiscal fourth quarter 2025, exceeding revenue and earnings per share estimates, and posted a narrower loss than anticipated. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting approximately 23% year-over-year revenue growth. This positive forecast notably includes a $49.5 million payment from a Samsung patent license. This strong financial reporting and forward-looking guidance likely boosted investor confidence.

**2. Introduction of New AI Agents and Expansion Beyond In-Car Experience.** In December 2025, Cerence significantly expanded its artificial intelligence ecosystem by introducing two new AI agents: a dealer assist agent and an ownership companion agent. These agents are designed to extend Cerence's conversational AI capabilities beyond the vehicle itself, integrating into automotive dealerships and OEM services. This strategic move signals new potential revenue streams and broader market penetration for Cerence's AI technology.

**3. Recognition for Cerence xUI Platform.** Cerence's next-generation hybrid, agentic AI assistant platform, Cerence xUI, received industry recognition in October 2025 when it was selected as the AutoTech AI Solution of the Year by AutoTech Breakthrough. This award highlights external validation of the platform's innovation and capabilities, potentially increasing its attractiveness to current and prospective automotive partners.

**4. Significant Insider Buying.** On November 21, 2025, Cerence's Chief Executive Officer, Brian M. Krzanich, demonstrated strong confidence in the company's future by acquiring 552,800 shares of common stock. This transaction, executed as an equity award, was valued at approximately $5.72 million. Such a substantial insider purchase by a key executive often serves as a positive signal to the market regarding the company's prospects.

**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.** During this period, despite a general "Hold" consensus rating among analysts, there were positive adjustments and reaffirmations of price targets, reflecting an acknowledgment of Cerence's progress. For instance, Goldman Sachs maintained its "Hold" rating while raising its price target from $10 to $11 on November 20, 2025. Analysts continued to project an average price target that indicated potential upside from the stock's current levels.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CRNC Return344%-24%-76%6%-60%37%-53%
Peers Return529%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CRNC Win Rate67%58%33%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate33% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CRNC Max Drawdown-41%-31%-82%-20%-88%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCRNCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven846.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven62 days148 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Cerence's stock fell -89.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -89.4% loss requires a 846.3% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Cerence (CRNC)

Better Bets than Cerence (CRNC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CRNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%
CRNC_1312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01312022CRNCCerenceDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-55.6%-61.4%-77.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%
CRNC_1312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01312022CRNCCerenceDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-55.6%-61.4%-77.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cerence

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price11.22300.081.361.992.127.905.01
Mkt Cap0.563.90.1-0.05.00.5
Rev LTM2526,88831-21,026252
Op Inc LTM131,6441--06513
FCF LTM472,083-1--255151
FCF 3Y Avg201,690---216216
CFO LTM612,1552--310186
CFO 3Y Avg291,765---271271

Growth & Margins

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM-24.0%15.6%55.1%--10.6%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.2%12.1%---10.2%10.2%
Rev Chg Q10.6%18.0%90.4%--12.0%15.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%4.3%15.1%--2.9%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM5.2%23.9%4.5%--3.8%6.3%5.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.7%22.0%---6.9%6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.1%0.9%-0.5%---0.1%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM24.3%31.3%7.0%--30.2%27.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.7%29.1%---29.0%29.0%
FCF/Rev LTM18.6%30.2%-2.6%--24.9%21.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.7%27.9%---23.1%23.1%

Valuation

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap0.563.90.1-0.05.00.5
P/S1.99.32.5-8.64.94.9
P/EBIT346.841.538.2-491.974.774.7
P/E-26.057.553.4--2,843.5-1,744.2-26.0
P/CFO7.929.735.7--16.122.9
Total Yield-3.8%1.7%1.9%--0.0%-0.1%-0.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%3.0%---1.6%3.0%
D/E0.40.00.0-0.00.20.0
Net D/E0.30.0-0.1--0.00.20.0

Returns

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn41.7%3.1%-1.4%1.5%-32.3%9.6%2.3%
3M Rtn-10.2%-7.0%-62.1%-34.1%-47.0%-63.3%-40.6%
6M Rtn30.2%1.0%117.9%-37.2%-47.0%-63.3%-18.1%
12M Rtn48.0%2.2%--51.7%3,679.0%-63.3%2.2%
3Y Rtn-39.3%59.7%--3,161.5%-63.3%10.2%
1M Excs Rtn38.8%0.2%-4.3%-1.4%-35.2%6.7%-0.6%
3M Excs Rtn-12.3%-9.6%-62.9%-37.3%-49.1%-65.4%-43.2%
6M Excs Rtn15.8%-13.7%91.9%-50.3%-60.4%-76.7%-32.0%
12M Excs Rtn24.4%-13.9%--63.8%3,426.3%-76.2%-13.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-110.1%-21.1%--2,857.5%-134.3%-65.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Connected services133758611097
License125145159202164
Professional services7374847569
Total332294328387331


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,965,234
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.0%
Average Daily Volume2,897,033
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.75
Basic Shares Quantity43,339,000
Short % of Basic Shares18.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/19/202527.5%31.8% 
5/7/2025-12.2%-4.3%1.8%
2/6/202513.7%14.0%-26.8%
11/21/2024106.7%137.2%172.0%
8/8/202416.9%2.3%23.2%
5/9/2024-34.3%-49.3%-68.2%
2/6/2024-7.1%-17.3%-29.9%
11/27/2023-2.1%1.7%15.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121413
# Negative11910
Median Positive12.9%17.1%21.0%
Median Negative-12.2%-17.3%-29.9%
Max Positive106.7%137.2%172.0%
Max Negative-34.3%-49.3%-68.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251120202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241125202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231129202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221129202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021