Cerence (CRNC)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $11.09 | Market Cap: $480.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Cerence (CRNC)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $11.09Market Cap: $480.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 347x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.6% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 173% | ||
| Key risksCRNC key risks include [1] a significant convertible debt maturing in June 2025 straining its financial position, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 347x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 173% |
| Key risksCRNC key risks include [1] a significant convertible debt maturing in June 2025 straining its financial position, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CRNC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Cerence (CRNC) stock moved by 6.6% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
**1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and Upbeat Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance.**
Cerence reported robust financial performance for its fiscal fourth quarter 2025, exceeding revenue and earnings per share estimates, and posted a narrower loss than anticipated. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting approximately 23% year-over-year revenue growth. This positive forecast notably includes a $49.5 million payment from a Samsung patent license. This strong financial reporting and forward-looking guidance likely boosted investor confidence.
**2. Introduction of New AI Agents and Expansion Beyond In-Car Experience.**
In December 2025, Cerence significantly expanded its artificial intelligence ecosystem by introducing two new AI agents: a dealer assist agent and an ownership companion agent. These agents are designed to extend Cerence's conversational AI capabilities beyond the vehicle itself, integrating into automotive dealerships and OEM services. This strategic move signals new potential revenue streams and broader market penetration for Cerence's AI technology.
**3. Recognition for Cerence xUI Platform.**
Cerence's next-generation hybrid, agentic AI assistant platform, Cerence xUI, received industry recognition in October 2025 when it was selected as the AutoTech AI Solution of the Year by AutoTech Breakthrough. This award highlights external validation of the platform's innovation and capabilities, potentially increasing its attractiveness to current and prospective automotive partners.
**4. Significant Insider Buying.**
On November 21, 2025, Cerence's Chief Executive Officer, Brian M. Krzanich, demonstrated strong confidence in the company's future by acquiring 552,800 shares of common stock. This transaction, executed as an equity award, was valued at approximately $5.72 million. Such a substantial insider purchase by a key executive often serves as a positive signal to the market regarding the company's prospects.
**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.**
During this period, despite a general "Hold" consensus rating among analysts, there were positive adjustments and reaffirmations of price targets, reflecting an acknowledgment of Cerence's progress. For instance, Goldman Sachs maintained its "Hold" rating while raising its price target from $10 to $11 on November 20, 2025. Analysts continued to project an average price target that indicated potential upside from the stock's current levels.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRNC Return | 344% | -24% | -76% | 6% | -60% | 37% | -53% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 529% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRNC Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRNC Max Drawdown | -41% | -31% | -82% | -20% | -88% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 846.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 148 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Cerence's stock fell -89.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -89.4% loss requires a 846.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Cerence Earnings Notes | ||
| Would You Still Hold Cerence Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CRNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 01312022 | CRNC | Cerence | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -55.6% | -61.4% | -77.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 01312022 | CRNC | Cerence | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -55.6% | -61.4% | -77.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cerence
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 252 |
| Op Inc LTM | 13 |
| FCF LTM | 151 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 186 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | 74.7 |
| P/E | -26.0 |
| P/CFO | 22.9 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -40.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -43.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | 27.5% | 31.8% | |
| 5/7/2025 | -12.2% | -4.3% | 1.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 13.7% | 14.0% | -26.8% |
| 11/21/2024 | 106.7% | 137.2% | 172.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 16.9% | 2.3% | 23.2% |
| 5/9/2024 | -34.3% | -49.3% | -68.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | -7.1% | -17.3% | -29.9% |
| 11/27/2023 | -2.1% | 1.7% | 15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 12.9% | 17.1% | 21.0% |
| Median Negative | -12.2% | -17.3% | -29.9% |
| Max Positive | 106.7% | 137.2% | 172.0% |
| Max Negative | -34.3% | -49.3% | -68.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11202025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11252024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11292022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |