Cerence (CRNC)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $8.55 | Market Cap: $369.9 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Cerence (CRNC)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $8.55Market Cap: $369.9 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -102%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 169% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 204% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -102%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 169% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 204% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CRNC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Cerence (CRNC) experienced a stock movement of -0.7% for the approximate period from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025. This slight decline can be attributed to a combination of positive financial performance and strategic advancements being weighed against year-over-year revenue challenges and cautious future projections.
1. Strong Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Performance.
On August 6, 2025, Cerence announced robust financial results for its third fiscal quarter of 2025, exceeding its guidance for both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. The company reported revenue of $62.2 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $9.0 million, along with its fifth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow.
2. Raised Full Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance.
Following the better-than-expected Q3 results, Cerence raised and narrowed its full fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $244 million to $249 million, demonstrating management's confidence in its operational execution and market position.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRNC Return | 344% | -24% | -76% | 6% | -60% | 9% | -62% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 6% | 52% | -26% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRNC Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 5% | 21% | 33% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRNC Max Drawdown | -41% | -31% | -82% | -20% | -88% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -1% | -4% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BIYA, BLIV, BMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 846.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 148 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BIYA, BLIV, BMR
In The Past
Cerence's stock fell -89.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -89.4% loss requires a 846.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Cerence Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CRNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 01312022 | CRNC | Cerence | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -55.6% | -61.4% | -77.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 01312022 | CRNC | Cerence | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -55.6% | -61.4% | -77.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cerence
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 2.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 246 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5 |
| FCF LTM | 42 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 859 |
| CFO LTM | 55 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 899 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 43.9 |
| P/E | 60.7 |
| P/CFO | 24.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -32.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -34.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -34.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2025 | -12.2% | -4.3% | 1.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 13.7% | 14.0% | -26.8% |
| 11/21/2024 | 106.7% | 137.2% | 172.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 16.9% | 2.3% | 23.2% |
| 5/9/2024 | -34.3% | -49.3% | -68.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | -7.1% | -17.3% | -29.9% |
| 11/27/2023 | -2.1% | 1.7% | 15.7% |
| 8/8/2023 | 4.0% | 3.7% | -2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 12.1% | 14.0% | 21.0% |
| Median Negative | -12.2% | -17.3% | -29.9% |
| Max Positive | 106.7% | 137.2% | 172.0% |
| Max Negative | -34.3% | -49.3% | -68.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11252024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11292022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Mentz Christian | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 8182025 | Sell | 12.74 | 4,000 | 50,943 | 1,767,054 | Form |
| 1 | Mentz Christian | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 2252025 | Sell | 14.73 | 3,600 | 53,028 | 2,102,663 | Form |
| 2 | BEAUDOIN THOMAS L | 2042025 | Sell | 11.68 | 5,000 | 58,400 | 2,031,923 | Form | |
| 3 | BEAUDOIN THOMAS L | 1022025 | Sell | 7.98 | 5,000 | 39,900 | 1,428,149 | Form | |
| 4 | BEAUDOIN THOMAS L | 12032024 | Sell | 7.36 | 5,000 | 36,800 | 1,353,990 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |