Tearsheet

Cerence (CRNC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.91 | Market Cap: $515.3 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Cerence (CRNC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.91
Market Cap: $515.3 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.4%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 174%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.4%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 174%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CRNC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement of Cerence (CRNC) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat. Cerence reported Q4 2025 revenue of $60.6 million, surpassing its guidance range of $53 million to $58 million and exceeding analyst estimates. The company also reported a narrower loss per share of $0.24, significantly beating the analyst estimate of a $0.66 loss per share.

2. Optimistic Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance. The company provided strong guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting revenue in the range of $300 million to $320 million, which represents a 23% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. This forward-looking outlook contributed to investor confidence.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CRNC Return344%-24%-76%6%-60%42%-51%
Peers Return13%-2%-7%5%55%836%1483%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CRNC Win Rate67%58%33%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate13%10%9%30%44%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CRNC Max Drawdown-41%-31%-82%-20%-88%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-4%-8%-15%-8%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCRNCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven846.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven62 days148 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Cerence's stock fell -89.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -89.4% loss requires a 846.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cerence (CRNC)

Better Bets than Cerence (CRNC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can Cerence Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CRNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
CRNC_1312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01312022CRNCCerenceDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-55.6%-61.4%-77.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
CRNC_1312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01312022CRNCCerenceDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-55.6%-61.4%-77.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cerence

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price12.11307.241.292.223.427.565.49
Mkt Cap0.565.40.1---0.5
Rev LTM2466,60527-21,026246
Op Inc LTM51,5151--0655
FCF LTM421,8471--255149
FCF 3Y Avg151,704---216216
CFO LTM551,9254--310182
CFO 3Y Avg231,775---271271

Growth & Margins

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM-31.2%13.8%29.7%--10.6%12.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.6%11.7%---10.2%10.2%
Rev Chg Q-11.8%17.1%86.2%--12.0%14.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.3%4.1%19.3%--2.9%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%22.9%5.0%--3.8%6.3%5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.2%21.5%---6.9%6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.4%0.8%-0.1%---0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM22.2%29.1%13.5%--30.2%25.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%30.7%---29.0%29.0%
FCF/Rev LTM17.0%28.0%4.9%--24.9%20.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%29.5%---23.1%23.1%

Valuation

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap0.565.40.1---0.5
P/S1.810.01.8---1.8
P/EBIT-36.546.724.6---24.6
P/E-17.163.235.8---35.8
P/CFO8.134.313.5---13.5
Total Yield-5.8%1.6%2.8%---1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.6%3.3%----5.4%
D/E0.50.00.0---0.0
Net D/E0.30.0-0.2---0.0

Returns

CRNCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCerence Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn9.6%1.2%-52.2%-12.3%-3.1%-13.3%-7.7%
3M Rtn25.2%-3.2%-53.8%-20.1%-14.5%-64.8%-17.3%
6M Rtn24.6%3.0%104.0%-30.6%-14.5%-64.8%-5.8%
12M Rtn68.7%2.8%--27.5%4,785.7%-64.8%2.8%
3Y Rtn-36.9%52.8%--3,320.0%-64.8%7.9%
1M Excs Rtn9.6%1.2%-52.2%-12.2%-3.1%-13.3%-7.7%
3M Excs Rtn15.8%-9.3%-59.4%-23.1%-19.8%-70.2%-21.5%
6M Excs Rtn9.9%-11.7%89.3%-45.3%-29.2%-79.6%-20.5%
12M Excs Rtn50.9%-8.3%--45.7%4,643.1%-78.4%-8.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-94.0%-15.5%--3,299.3%-137.6%-54.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,382,866
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202517.1%
Average Daily Volume1,381,737
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.07
Basic Shares Quantity43,262,000
Short % of Basic Shares19.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241125202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231129202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221129202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211123202110-K 9/30/2021