Salesforce (CRM)
Market Price (3/21/2026): $195.99 | Market Cap: $183.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Salesforce (CRM)
Market Price (3/21/2026): $195.99Market Cap: $183.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Key risksCRM key risks include [1] intense competition from rival AI offerings hampering product demand and [2] significant cybersecurity threats targeting its vast repository of sensitive customer data. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.9% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Key risksCRM key risks include [1] intense competition from rival AI offerings hampering product demand and [2] significant cybersecurity threats targeting its vast repository of sensitive customer data. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Lower-than-Expected Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue Guidance.
Salesforce's stock experienced downward pressure following the release of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25, 2026, where despite an earnings beat (EPS of $3.81 against a $3.05 forecast, and revenue of $11.2 billion against an $11.18 billion forecast), the company issued a "soft" revenue outlook for fiscal year 2027. The projected fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $45.8 billion to $46.2 billion, implying 10% to 11% growth, fell below Wall Street's consensus expectation of approximately $46.06 billion.
2. Decelerating Growth in Core Segments and Overall Revenue.
Concerns over slowing growth contributed to the negative trend, particularly the deceleration in Salesforce's fundamental Sales Cloud segment, which saw its year-over-year growth slow to 8.4%. This, combined with the 10%-11% overall revenue growth projected for fiscal year 2027, amplified investor anxieties regarding the company's ability to sustain higher growth rates as it matures.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.1% change in CRM stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 230.17 | 195.38 | -15.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 39,502 | 41,525 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.9% | 18.0% | 6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.0 | 24.5 | -25.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 956 | 935 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -15.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 23.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 29.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.5% change in CRM stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 255.39 | 195.38 | -23.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 38,591 | 41,525 | 7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.1% | 18.0% | 11.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.5 | 24.5 | -38.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 960 | 935 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -23.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 3.2% | 30.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.0% change in CRM stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 295.92 | 195.38 | -34.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,189 | 41,525 | 11.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 18.0% | 12.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 47.7 | 24.5 | -48.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 956 | 935 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -34.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 54.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 20.5% | 55.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.9% change in CRM stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 1856.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 161.65 | 195.38 | 20.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30,294 | 41,525 | 37.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.9% | 18.0% | 1856.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 579.7 | 24.5 | -95.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 997 | 935 | 6.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | 20.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 51.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 102.2% | 51.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRM Return | 14% | -48% | 98% | 28% | -20% | -26% | -11% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -34% | 70% | 24% | -12% | -26% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRM Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 30% | 67% | 58% | 37% | 13% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRM Max Drawdown | -8% | -50% | 0% | -17% | -32% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -45% | -5% | -13% | -30% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, NOW, HUBS. See CRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, NOW, HUBS
In The Past
Salesforce's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Salesforce (CRM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Salesforce is like SAP for customer relationships, providing a comprehensive cloud platform instead of ERP.
- Salesforce is like Oracle for a company's sales, service, and marketing departments, offering an integrated suite of cloud-based applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Sales Cloud: Enables businesses to store data, monitor leads, forecast opportunities, and manage quotes and contracts.
- Service Cloud: Provides tools for delivering trusted and highly personalized customer service and support at scale.
- Salesforce Platform: Offers a flexible platform with drag-and-drop tools for building custom business applications.
- Trailhead (Online Learning Platform): Allows individuals to learn in-demand Salesforce skills and earn certifications.
- Slack: A comprehensive system of engagement for team communication and collaboration.
- Marketing Cloud: Helps companies plan, personalize, and optimize one-to-one customer marketing journeys.
- Commerce Cloud: Empowers brands to unify the customer experience across mobile, web, social, and physical store commerce points.
- Tableau: An end-to-end analytics solution for various enterprise use cases.
- MuleSoft: An integration offering designed to unlock data across an enterprise.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Marc Benioff, Chair and CEO
Marc Benioff is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Salesforce. He graduated from the University of Southern California and began his career at Oracle Corporation, where he became its youngest vice president at 26 years old during his 13-year tenure. Benioff demonstrated entrepreneurial spirit early on, founding Liberty Software at age 15 to create and sell video games, which helped fund his college education. He co-founded Salesforce in 1999, envisioning a cloud-based platform for customer relationship management, a radical departure from traditional on-premises software. Benioff is also the owner of Time magazine since 2018 and has established Time Ventures, a venture capital fund.
Robin Washington, President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer (COFO)
Robin Washington became President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer (COFO) of Salesforce, effective March 21, 2025, a newly created role combining operational and financial leadership. She has a significant history with Salesforce, having served on its Board of Directors since 2013, and as Lead Independent Director from 2022 until March 2025. Prior to her current role, Washington held several prominent finance positions, including Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Gilead Sciences (2008–2019), CFO at Hyperion Solutions (2006–2007), and Chief Accounting Officer at PeopleSoft. She is a Certified Public Accountant and serves on the boards of other major companies, including Alphabet Inc., Eikon Therapeutics, Honeywell International, and Vertiv Holdings Co.
Parker Harris, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer (CTO)
Parker Harris is a co-founder of Salesforce and currently serves as its Chief Technology Officer. He is instrumental in defining Salesforce's technology vision, overseeing its architecture, and leading the engineering teams for products like Slack. Before co-founding Salesforce, Harris co-founded Left Coast Software and contributed to field sales automation at Metropolis Software.
David Schmaier, President and Chief Strategy Officer
David Schmaier is the President and Chief Strategy Officer at Salesforce. He spearheads strategic priorities including M&A and venture capital, and oversees stakeholder capitalism and corporate philanthropy efforts. Schmaier joined Salesforce through the acquisition of Vlocity, where he was the Co-Founder and CEO from 2014 to 2020. Before Vlocity, he was a founding executive and Executive Vice President at Siebel Systems. He also serves as a strategic advisory board member for Genstar Capital, a private equity firm.
Sabastian Niles, President and Chief Legal Officer
Sabastian Niles is the President and Chief Legal Officer at Salesforce, a position he assumed in 2023. He leads the company's global legal and corporate affairs, including government affairs, public policy, and the Office of Ethical and Humane Use of Technology and Responsible AI. Prior to joining Salesforce, Niles was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, where he specialized in advising global companies on corporate governance, enterprise risk oversight, stakeholder and shareholder affairs, strategic investments, and mergers and acquisitions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlKey Risks to Salesforce (CRM)
- Intensifying Competition and AI Disruption: Salesforce faces significant risks from an aggressive AI "arms race" with well-funded technology giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, who are embedding advanced AI capabilities directly into their competing platforms. This could potentially erode Salesforce's unique value proposition and market dominance in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector. There's also a threat from AI-first approaches that could entirely bypass traditional CRM systems, as some organizations might view AI as capable of managing customer relationships without dedicated CRM infrastructure. While Salesforce is heavily investing in AI, there's an execution risk, and the monetization of these investments may take time to translate into significant revenue contributions, contributing to investor unease about future AI-driven growth and competitive pressure.
- Cybersecurity Risks and Data Privacy/Compliance: Salesforce environments, which often house sensitive organizational data, are prime targets for cyberattacks. Key cybersecurity threats include data exposure due to complex permission models, sensitive data residing in inappropriate locations, API connection vulnerabilities, misconfigurations, and a disconnect between Salesforce administrators and security teams. Recent significant cyberattacks, particularly those exploiting third-party integrations and misconfigured guest user profiles, underscore the ongoing and evolving nature of these threats. Furthermore, increasing global data privacy regulations, such as GDPR, CCPA, and HIPAA, create complex operational challenges and compliance costs for Salesforce. Failure to adhere to these evolving regulatory requirements can lead to substantial fines, legal actions, reputational damage, and a loss of customer trust.
- Slowing Revenue Growth and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Salesforce has experienced a deceleration in its revenue growth, with recent guidance suggesting a slowdown. This trend is partly attributed to cautious enterprise spending in an uncertain economic environment, where businesses are elongating purchase cycles and scrutinizing budgets more closely. Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions can further affect overall enterprise IT spending, directly impacting Salesforce's growth. The company's reliance on a subscription-based revenue model means it must continuously deliver value and innovate to retain customers, as any significant customer attrition or lower renewal rates could impact its financial stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Microsoft's accelerating integration of advanced AI capabilities (such as through its Copilot offerings) across its extensive enterprise ecosystem, including Dynamics 365, Office 365, and Azure, presents a clear emerging threat. This strategy aims to provide a unified, AI-powered business platform that could challenge Salesforce's comprehensive Customer 360 platform by offering an alternative 'all-in-one' solution for customers seeking deeply integrated productivity, collaboration, and CRM functionalities from a single vendor.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the addressable market sizes for Salesforce's main products or services:
- Sales Cloud (CRM Software): The global Customer Relationship Management (CRM) market size was valued at approximately USD 112.91 billion in 2025.
- Service Cloud (Customer Service Software): The global customer service software market is projected to reach USD 51.3 billion in 2025.
- Platform (Low-Code Application Development Platform): The global low-code development platform market is estimated to be valued at USD 35.2 billion in 2025.
- Slack (Collaboration Software): The global team collaboration software market size was USD 27.89 billion in 2025.
- Marketing Cloud (Marketing Automation Software): The global marketing automation software market size was valued at USD 11.42 billion in 2024.
- Commerce Cloud (E-commerce Platform): The global e-commerce platform market size was estimated at USD 9.40 billion in 2024.
- Tableau (Business Intelligence & Analytics): The global business intelligence software market size was estimated at USD 40.13 billion in 2025.
- MuleSoft (Integration Platform as a Service - iPaaS): The global integration platform as a service (iPaaS) market size was valued at USD 15.63 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Salesforce (CRM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Expansion and Monetization of AI-Driven Products: A primary driver is the continued growth and monetization of Salesforce's artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, particularly Agentforce and Data Cloud. Agentforce has demonstrated significant annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth and is central to Salesforce's vision of becoming the "Agentic Enterprise," integrating AI across sales, service, marketing, and Slack. The company is actively monetizing AI through premium SKUs, new seat additions, and flexible credits for agentic use cases.
- Enhanced Cross-Selling and Platform Adoption: Salesforce is focused on deepening customer relationships by expanding the adoption of its comprehensive Customer 360 platform and various cloud offerings. The company emphasizes delivering a full suite of its clouds, with a notable increase in deals that include six or more clouds. This strategy aims to increase average revenue per user (ARPU) by cross-selling Data Cloud, Service, and Slack.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Future revenue growth is also anticipated from strategic acquisitions. The Informatica acquisition, completed in late 2025, is expected to be accretive to the Data Cloud segment starting in fiscal year 2027 and act as a catalyst for growth. Salesforce plans to continue with disciplined, AI-centric "tuck-in" acquisitions with clear cross-sell paths.
- Targeted Customer and Market Expansion: Salesforce is expanding its customer base by targeting new segments, such as small businesses, through solutions like Salesforce Starter, which bundles sales, service, marketing, AI, and Data Cloud. Additionally, the company is investing in international expansion, increasing local cloud infrastructure, and democratizing CRM access in high-growth regions like Asia-Pacific.
- Optimized Pricing and Packaging: Salesforce's evolving pricing and packaging strategy is designed to drive higher sales and deliver increased value to companies of all sizes and industries. This approach contributes to revenue growth by optimizing how its products and services are offered to the market.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Salesforce (CRM)
Share Repurchases
- Salesforce announced a $50 billion share repurchase program in February 2026, which replaced all prior authorizations.
- In March 2026, the company entered into accelerated share repurchase agreements totaling $25 billion, funded by the sale of senior notes.
- Over the three years leading up to February 2026, Salesforce repurchased $28 billion in shares.
Share Issuance
- Salesforce's annual "Shares Issued" amounted to approximately $1.5 billion for fiscal year 2025.
- The quarterly value for "Shares Issued" was $239.0 million in Q4 2025.
- The company's annual shares outstanding have generally decreased over the last few years, from 981 million in 2023 to 962 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Salesforce plans to invest $15 billion in San Francisco over five years starting from October 2025, primarily to establish a new AI Incubator Hub and foster the AI ecosystem.
- Key acquisitions include Informatica for $8 billion (definitive agreement signed in 2025), Own Company for $1.9 billion (November 2024), and Zoomin for $450 million (January 2025).
- The company also acquired Slack for $27.7 billion in December 2020, significantly enhancing its collaboration capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Salesforce's capital expenditures were -$717 million in fiscal year 2022, -$798 million in fiscal year 2023, -$736 million in fiscal year 2024, -$658 million in fiscal year 2025, and -$594 million in fiscal year 2026.
- Capital expenditures averaged $652.3 million annually from fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2025, peaking at $730.5 million in January 2023.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CRM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.1% | -14.1% | -21.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 221.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 148.7 |
| Rev LTM | 32,647 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,812 |
| FCF LTM | 7,192 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,879 |
| CFO LTM | 12,514 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,618 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 148.7 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 19.8 |
| P/E | 25.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -26.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -37.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -31.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 14.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agentforce Service | 9,054 | 8,245 | 7,369 | 6,474 | 5,377 |
| Agentforce Sales | 8,322 | 7,580 | 6,831 | 5,989 | 5,191 |
| Agentforce 360 Platform, Slack and Other | 7,247 | 6,611 | 5,967 | 4,509 | 3,324 |
| Agentforce Integration and Agentforce Analytics | 5,775 | 5,189 | 4,338 | 3,783 | 2,951 |
| Agentforce Marketing and Agentforce Commerce | 5,281 | 4,912 | 4,516 | 3,902 | 3,133 |
| Professional services and other | 2,216 | 2,320 | 2,331 | 1,835 | 1,276 |
| Total | 37,895 | 34,857 | 31,352 | 26,492 | 21,252 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $195.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 185.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/23/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -32.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $206.06 | $240.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.2% | -18.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.1% | 34.8% |
| Downside Capture | 186.28 | 132.15 |
| Upside Capture | 59.58 | 74.97 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.0% | 52.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.62 | 1.42 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| Up Beta | 0.63 | 1.58 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| Down Beta | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.98 | 1.16 |
| Up Capture | 172% | 90% | 166% | 79% | 74% | 149% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 15 | 29 | 61 | 127 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 323% | 316% | 241% | 165% | 125% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 26 | 32 | 63 | 124 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | -29.7% | 34.7% | -0.96 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.6% | 26.6% | 0.86 | 53.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 52.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | -8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 26.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 21.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | -1.5% | 35.8% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.2% | 24.6% | 0.59 | 62.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 61.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 38.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.7% | 0.30 | 27.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 10.7% | 34.6% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.6% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 67.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 63.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 40.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 19.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | 4.0% | 0.7% | |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% |
| 9/3/2025 | -4.9% | -5.4% | -6.7% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.3% | -4.7% | -0.8% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.0% | -5.0% | -9.6% |
| 12/3/2024 | 11.0% | 5.2% | 0.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.7% | -4.9% | 7.0% |
| 5/29/2024 | -19.7% | -12.9% | -5.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -6.3% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 26.0% | 30.2% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -18.6% | -18.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirk, David Blair | Direct | Buy | 12182025 | 258.64 | 1,936 | 500,722 | 2,761,473 | Form | |
| 2 | Morfit, G Mason | See footnotes | Buy | 12082025 | 260.58 | 96,000 | 25,015,680 | 780,309,155 | Form | |
| 3 | Harris, Parker | Co-Founder and CTO, Slack | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 234.70 | 134,662 | 31,605,031 | 32,803,170 | Form |
| 4 | Benioff, Marc | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 259.00 | 122 | 31,598 | 3,085,142,836 | Form |
| 5 | Benioff, Marc | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 258.20 | 2,250 | 580,940 | 3,075,513,543 | Form |
CRM Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The risk/reward is attractive. The Probability-Adjusted Skew of 1.77x indicates a favorable asymmetric bet. While the moat is contested by a formidable competitor (Microsoft), the powerful secular tailwind of enterprise AI adoption provides a strong margin of safety. The company is successfully executing its pivot to a new growth driver, which the market has not fully priced in, creating a buyable opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderWhile the core CRM business is maturing, the investment thesis is now dominated by the hyper-growth AI/Data product cycle (Agentforce & Data 360), which is growing at triple digits. The focus is on the durability of this new growth vector and defending its moat against Microsoft, which aligns with the 'High-Beta Compounder' framework.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis hinges on the company's ability to cross-sell its new, high-growth AI and Data Cloud services into its massive installed base, creating an accretive, consumption-based revenue stream that re-accelerates overall company growth and expands margins, even as the core 'per-seat' CRM business matures.
- Agentforce & Data 360 combined ARR reached nearly $1.4 billion, growing at an explosive 114% YoY in Q3 FY26.
- All of the top 10 deals in Q4 FY25 included a Data and AI component, indicating successful bundling and adoption at the highest enterprise level.
- Company raised FY26 revenue guidance, suggesting near-term confidence in this new growth driver.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that Microsoft successfully leverages its existing enterprise footprint (Microsoft 365, Azure) to bundle a 'good enough' AI-powered CRM (Dynamics 365 + Copilot) at a lower Total Cost of Ownership, causing Salesforce to lose deals, face pricing pressure, and cede market share in its core 'Platform Consolidator' segment.
- Microsoft Dynamics 365 revenue grew 19% in its latest quarter, outpacing Salesforce's core subscription growth of 10%.
- Microsoft is aggressively bundling its AI-powered Copilot for Sales with Dynamics 365 and the broader Microsoft 365 ecosystem, with new features rolling out in February 2026.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Agentforce & Data 360 ARR Growth | > 80% YoY | This is the primary driver of the bull thesis. Sustained hyper-growth is required to re-accelerate total company revenue and justify the premium valuation. A drop below this level would signal maturation of the new growth engine. |
| Current Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) Growth | > 12% YoY | This is the best leading indicator for near-term revenue. The current 11% growth lags peers. It must accelerate, as guided by management, to confirm that the new AI products are lifting the overall business, not just offsetting core weakness. |
| Core Cloud Revenue Growth (Sales + Service) | Stabilization > 7% YoY | While the focus is on AI, the core clouds are the cash engine. A deceleration below 7% would indicate that the 'AI Cannibalization' or 'Competitive/Share' risks are materializing faster than expected, threatening the funding of the new initiatives. |
AI Growth Engine vs. Core Platform Saturation
BULL VIEW
The 114% YoY growth in Agentforce & Data 360 ARR is the start of a new, high-margin S-curve, justifying a premium valuation and offsetting any core business moderation.
CORE TENSION
Can the new, high-growth AI/Data products re-accelerate overall growth before the mature, core CRM clouds (Sales, Service) succumb to market saturation and competitive pressure?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Market reacted positively to Q3 FY26 earnings, focusing on the nearly $1.4B ARR from Agentforce & Data 360 (+114% YoY) and raised FY26 guidance, despite slower core cloud growth.
BEAR VIEW
Core cloud deceleration (Marketing +1% YoY) is a structural drag. The new AI business is too small and its consumption model too volatile to carry the company's growth story.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late Feb / Early Mar 2026 | Q4 FY26 Earnings Call & FY27 Guidance Watch: Growth rate delta between AI/Data ARR vs. core Sales/Service cloud revenue. Any FY27 revenue guidance below ~8% would be a major negative. |
Ongoing (Key Update July 2026) | Microsoft's Copilot Bundle Update Watch: Commentary on Salesforce's earnings call regarding competitive win rates against Microsoft Dynamics, or any announcements of defensive discounting. |
Ongoing (Next 2-4 Quarters) | Major Enterprise Layoff Announcements Watch: Large-scale, AI-driven headcount reduction announcements in sales or service departments from major Salesforce customers (e.g., G2000 tech/finance firms). |
Anytime (Next 6 Months) | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Scrutiny Watch: Announcement of a formal investigation by the European Commission into Salesforce's platform practices under the 'gatekeeper' designation. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/11/2025 | 52-Week Low Details: Stock hit a 52-week low, reflecting broad market weakness in the software sector and concerns over decelerating growth in its core business ahead of Q2 earnings. | Fell notably by -3.3% $239.70 -> $231.90 |
8/1/2025 | Announced Price Increases Details: Salesforce announced an average 6% price increase on core products, effective August 2025. The move signals pricing power but the stock saw a negative reaction on the day. | Fell notably by -2.9% $257.46 -> $249.90 |
9/3/2025 | Q2 FY26 Earnings Release Details: The company reported its Q2 results, raising its full-year revenue and operating margin guidance. Despite the positive outlook, the stock declined in the following session. [7, 8] | Fell notably by -4.8% $255.59 -> $243.19 |
10/14/2025 | Dreamforce 2025 Conference Details: Annual user conference held from Oct 14-16, showcasing innovations in AI and Data Cloud. The event typically creates positive buzz but had a muted stock reaction this year. [18, 25] | Slight -1.3% pullback $239.38 -> $236.19 |
11/18/2025 | Completed Acquisition of Informatica Details: Salesforce announced the completion of its Informatica acquisition to bolster its Data Cloud and AI capabilities, creating a unified data foundation for its Agentforce platform. [15, 28] | Slight -1.5% pullback $236.64 -> $233.12 |
12/3/2025 | Q3 FY26 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $10.26B (missing est. of $10.27B) but beat EPS ($3.25 vs $2.86 est). Raised FY26 revenue guidance. Stock rose on strong profitability and AI momentum. [2, 5] | Rose significantly by 3.7% $238.33 -> $247.06 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.18x S&P) with Spiking near-term risk. While the AI growth thesis is compelling (Bullish Sentiment), the expensive valuation prevents a max position. Capping size to Normal (4-6%) balances the strong fundamental story with high volatility.
Diversification Alternatives
ADBE
INDUSTRYAdobe is a high-quality, wide-moat peer in enterprise software with a similar subscription model. It offers exposure to digital transformation without the specific CRM market headwinds.
PTC
INDUSTRYPTC offers a more focused play on the industrial software and digital transformation trend, with less direct competition from mega-cap players like Microsoft in its core CAD/PLM niches.
Salesforce is transitioning from a broad, multi-cloud CRM suite provider to an AI-first 'Agentic Enterprise' platform, where growth is increasingly driven by consumption-based AI and Data products (Agentforce, Data 360) layered on top of its mature, seat-based core business.
Filter all news through the lens of AI-driven growth and margin stability. The key debate is whether new AI revenue can outpace potential seat-based erosion from AI-driven automation.
Agentforce and Data 360 ARR growth exceeding +100% YoY; cRPO growth accelerating or staying in the double-digits; evidence of AI driving multi-cloud adoption and net new customer wins; sustained non-GAAP operating margins above 34%.
Deceleration of Agentforce ARR growth below 50%; cRPO growth falling into the single digits; analyst reports citing AI-native competitors causing customer churn or pricing pressure; downward revisions to long-term revenue targets ($60B+ by FY30).
Minor quarterly beats or misses on the core SaaS businesses (Sales, Service clouds); individual competitor announcements without third-party market share data; short-term stock price fluctuations unrelated to fundamental AI adoption metrics.
Repricing Catalyst
The rapid monetization of the Agentforce and Data 360 platforms is the primary catalyst. This combined offering reached an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over $2.9 billion in Q4 FY26, growing over 200% YoY. Management's ability to demonstrate that this new, high-growth, consumption-based revenue stream can be successfully layered onto the existing customer base to re-accelerate overall growth is key to a valuation re-rating.
AI-Powered CRM Applications (Sales, Service, etc.)
$38.6B TTM (93% of Total) · 95% MarginWhat It Is
Agentforce Sales, Agentforce Service, Agentforce Marketing and Commerce Clouds. These are the core CRM applications delivered via a SaaS model.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises of all sizes pay recurring subscription fees, typically on a per-user basis. They pay because the platform is deeply embedded in their commercial workflows, creating high switching costs related to data migration, user retraining, and integration with other systems.
Competition
AI & Data Platform (Agentforce, Data 360, Slack, Tableau)
$2.9B TTM (7% of Total) · 95% MarginWhat It Is
Agentforce (AI agent platform), Data 360 (hyperscale data engine), Slack (collaboration), Tableau (analytics), MuleSoft (integration).
Who Pays & How
Existing Salesforce customers pay to unify their customer data and build AI agents on top of their core CRM. They pay to automate tasks, gain deeper insights, and improve productivity, leveraging their existing Salesforce data as a key asset.
Competition
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