Salesforce (CRM)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $177.93 | Market Cap: $166.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Salesforce (CRM)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $177.93Market Cap: $166.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 28 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82% | Key risksCRM key risks include [1] intense competition from rival AI offerings hampering product demand and [2] significant cybersecurity threats targeting its vast repository of sensitive customer data. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 28 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82% |
| Key risksCRM key risks include [1] intense competition from rival AI offerings hampering product demand and [2] significant cybersecurity threats targeting its vast repository of sensitive customer data. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Conservative Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance Disappointed Investors.
Salesforce reported strong fourth quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings on February 25, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $3.81, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $3.05, and revenue of $11.20 billion, slightly above analyst estimates of $11.18 billion. However, the company's forward-looking guidance for fiscal year 2027 projected conservative revenue growth of 10-11%, which "failed to satisfy a market hungry for the triple-digit "AI alpha" promised during the 2024–2025 hype cycle" and triggered "market fears about reduced revenue forecasts."
2. Intensified Concerns Regarding AI Monetization and Increased Competition.
A significant factor contributing to the stock's decline was "rising concerns that general-purpose AI tools could erode demand for niche enterprise software" and "slower artificial intelligence implementation than expected." The market has been actively debating "the monetization of AI within the enterprise software space", with "growing concerns about the rate of AI returns and increasing competition." Notably, Microsoft and ServiceNow have been identified as mounting competitive pressures.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.6% change in CRM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 264.25 | 178.16 | -32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,317 | 41,525 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 18.0% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.7 | 22.3 | -35.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 948 | 935 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 18.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 11.3% | 28.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.5% change in CRM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 236.03 | 178.16 | -24.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 39,502 | 41,525 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.9% | 18.0% | 6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.9 | 22.3 | -34.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 956 | 935 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -24.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 23.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.9% | 31.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.0% change in CRM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 265.95 | 178.16 | -33.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,895 | 41,525 | 9.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 18.0% | 9.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.2 | 22.3 | -45.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 959 | 935 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -33.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 55.9% | 48.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.5% change in CRM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -97.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 196.89 | 178.16 | -9.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,352 | 41,525 | 32.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 18.0% | 2606.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 930.5 | 22.3 | -97.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 983 | 935 | 5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | -9.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 48.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 116.4% | 49.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRM Return | 14% | -48% | 98% | 28% | -20% | -34% | -21% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -34% | 70% | 24% | -12% | -29% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRM Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 30% | 67% | 58% | 37% | 15% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRM Max Drawdown | -8% | -50% | 0% | -17% | -32% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -45% | -5% | -13% | -30% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, NOW, HUBS. See CRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, NOW, HUBS
In The Past
Salesforce's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Salesforce (CRM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Salesforce is like SAP for customer relationships, providing a comprehensive cloud platform instead of ERP.
- Salesforce is like Oracle for a company's sales, service, and marketing departments, offering an integrated suite of cloud-based applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Sales Cloud: Enables businesses to store data, monitor leads, forecast opportunities, and manage quotes and contracts.
- Service Cloud: Provides tools for delivering trusted and highly personalized customer service and support at scale.
- Salesforce Platform: Offers a flexible platform with drag-and-drop tools for building custom business applications.
- Trailhead (Online Learning Platform): Allows individuals to learn in-demand Salesforce skills and earn certifications.
- Slack: A comprehensive system of engagement for team communication and collaboration.
- Marketing Cloud: Helps companies plan, personalize, and optimize one-to-one customer marketing journeys.
- Commerce Cloud: Empowers brands to unify the customer experience across mobile, web, social, and physical store commerce points.
- Tableau: An end-to-end analytics solution for various enterprise use cases.
- MuleSoft: An integration offering designed to unlock data across an enterprise.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Marc Benioff, Chair and CEO
Marc Benioff is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Salesforce. He graduated from the University of Southern California and began his career at Oracle Corporation, where he became its youngest vice president at 26 years old during his 13-year tenure. Benioff demonstrated entrepreneurial spirit early on, founding Liberty Software at age 15 to create and sell video games, which helped fund his college education. He co-founded Salesforce in 1999, envisioning a cloud-based platform for customer relationship management, a radical departure from traditional on-premises software. Benioff is also the owner of Time magazine since 2018 and has established Time Ventures, a venture capital fund.
Robin Washington, President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer (COFO)
Robin Washington became President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer (COFO) of Salesforce, effective March 21, 2025, a newly created role combining operational and financial leadership. She has a significant history with Salesforce, having served on its Board of Directors since 2013, and as Lead Independent Director from 2022 until March 2025. Prior to her current role, Washington held several prominent finance positions, including Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Gilead Sciences (2008–2019), CFO at Hyperion Solutions (2006–2007), and Chief Accounting Officer at PeopleSoft. She is a Certified Public Accountant and serves on the boards of other major companies, including Alphabet Inc., Eikon Therapeutics, Honeywell International, and Vertiv Holdings Co.
Parker Harris, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer (CTO)
Parker Harris is a co-founder of Salesforce and currently serves as its Chief Technology Officer. He is instrumental in defining Salesforce's technology vision, overseeing its architecture, and leading the engineering teams for products like Slack. Before co-founding Salesforce, Harris co-founded Left Coast Software and contributed to field sales automation at Metropolis Software.
David Schmaier, President and Chief Strategy Officer
David Schmaier is the President and Chief Strategy Officer at Salesforce. He spearheads strategic priorities including M&A and venture capital, and oversees stakeholder capitalism and corporate philanthropy efforts. Schmaier joined Salesforce through the acquisition of Vlocity, where he was the Co-Founder and CEO from 2014 to 2020. Before Vlocity, he was a founding executive and Executive Vice President at Siebel Systems. He also serves as a strategic advisory board member for Genstar Capital, a private equity firm.
Sabastian Niles, President and Chief Legal Officer
Sabastian Niles is the President and Chief Legal Officer at Salesforce, a position he assumed in 2023. He leads the company's global legal and corporate affairs, including government affairs, public policy, and the Office of Ethical and Humane Use of Technology and Responsible AI. Prior to joining Salesforce, Niles was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, where he specialized in advising global companies on corporate governance, enterprise risk oversight, stakeholder and shareholder affairs, strategic investments, and mergers and acquisitions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlKey Risks to Salesforce (CRM)
- Intensifying Competition and AI Disruption: Salesforce faces significant risks from an aggressive AI "arms race" with well-funded technology giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, who are embedding advanced AI capabilities directly into their competing platforms. This could potentially erode Salesforce's unique value proposition and market dominance in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector. There's also a threat from AI-first approaches that could entirely bypass traditional CRM systems, as some organizations might view AI as capable of managing customer relationships without dedicated CRM infrastructure. While Salesforce is heavily investing in AI, there's an execution risk, and the monetization of these investments may take time to translate into significant revenue contributions, contributing to investor unease about future AI-driven growth and competitive pressure.
- Cybersecurity Risks and Data Privacy/Compliance: Salesforce environments, which often house sensitive organizational data, are prime targets for cyberattacks. Key cybersecurity threats include data exposure due to complex permission models, sensitive data residing in inappropriate locations, API connection vulnerabilities, misconfigurations, and a disconnect between Salesforce administrators and security teams. Recent significant cyberattacks, particularly those exploiting third-party integrations and misconfigured guest user profiles, underscore the ongoing and evolving nature of these threats. Furthermore, increasing global data privacy regulations, such as GDPR, CCPA, and HIPAA, create complex operational challenges and compliance costs for Salesforce. Failure to adhere to these evolving regulatory requirements can lead to substantial fines, legal actions, reputational damage, and a loss of customer trust.
- Slowing Revenue Growth and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Salesforce has experienced a deceleration in its revenue growth, with recent guidance suggesting a slowdown. This trend is partly attributed to cautious enterprise spending in an uncertain economic environment, where businesses are elongating purchase cycles and scrutinizing budgets more closely. Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions can further affect overall enterprise IT spending, directly impacting Salesforce's growth. The company's reliance on a subscription-based revenue model means it must continuously deliver value and innovate to retain customers, as any significant customer attrition or lower renewal rates could impact its financial stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Microsoft's accelerating integration of advanced AI capabilities (such as through its Copilot offerings) across its extensive enterprise ecosystem, including Dynamics 365, Office 365, and Azure, presents a clear emerging threat. This strategy aims to provide a unified, AI-powered business platform that could challenge Salesforce's comprehensive Customer 360 platform by offering an alternative 'all-in-one' solution for customers seeking deeply integrated productivity, collaboration, and CRM functionalities from a single vendor.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the addressable market sizes for Salesforce's main products or services:
- Sales Cloud (CRM Software): The global Customer Relationship Management (CRM) market size was valued at approximately USD 112.91 billion in 2025.
- Service Cloud (Customer Service Software): The global customer service software market is projected to reach USD 51.3 billion in 2025.
- Platform (Low-Code Application Development Platform): The global low-code development platform market is estimated to be valued at USD 35.2 billion in 2025.
- Slack (Collaboration Software): The global team collaboration software market size was USD 27.89 billion in 2025.
- Marketing Cloud (Marketing Automation Software): The global marketing automation software market size was valued at USD 11.42 billion in 2024.
- Commerce Cloud (E-commerce Platform): The global e-commerce platform market size was estimated at USD 9.40 billion in 2024.
- Tableau (Business Intelligence & Analytics): The global business intelligence software market size was estimated at USD 40.13 billion in 2025.
- MuleSoft (Integration Platform as a Service - iPaaS): The global integration platform as a service (iPaaS) market size was valued at USD 15.63 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Salesforce (CRM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Expansion and Monetization of AI-Driven Products: A primary driver is the continued growth and monetization of Salesforce's artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, particularly Agentforce and Data Cloud. Agentforce has demonstrated significant annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth and is central to Salesforce's vision of becoming the "Agentic Enterprise," integrating AI across sales, service, marketing, and Slack. The company is actively monetizing AI through premium SKUs, new seat additions, and flexible credits for agentic use cases.
- Enhanced Cross-Selling and Platform Adoption: Salesforce is focused on deepening customer relationships by expanding the adoption of its comprehensive Customer 360 platform and various cloud offerings. The company emphasizes delivering a full suite of its clouds, with a notable increase in deals that include six or more clouds. This strategy aims to increase average revenue per user (ARPU) by cross-selling Data Cloud, Service, and Slack.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Future revenue growth is also anticipated from strategic acquisitions. The Informatica acquisition, completed in late 2025, is expected to be accretive to the Data Cloud segment starting in fiscal year 2027 and act as a catalyst for growth. Salesforce plans to continue with disciplined, AI-centric "tuck-in" acquisitions with clear cross-sell paths.
- Targeted Customer and Market Expansion: Salesforce is expanding its customer base by targeting new segments, such as small businesses, through solutions like Salesforce Starter, which bundles sales, service, marketing, AI, and Data Cloud. Additionally, the company is investing in international expansion, increasing local cloud infrastructure, and democratizing CRM access in high-growth regions like Asia-Pacific.
- Optimized Pricing and Packaging: Salesforce's evolving pricing and packaging strategy is designed to drive higher sales and deliver increased value to companies of all sizes and industries. This approach contributes to revenue growth by optimizing how its products and services are offered to the market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions for Salesforce (CRM)
Share Repurchases
- Salesforce announced a $50 billion share repurchase program in February 2026, which replaced all prior authorizations.
- In March 2026, the company entered into accelerated share repurchase agreements totaling $25 billion, funded by the sale of senior notes.
- Over the three years leading up to February 2026, Salesforce repurchased $28 billion in shares.
Share Issuance
- Salesforce's annual "Shares Issued" amounted to approximately $1.5 billion for fiscal year 2025.
- The quarterly value for "Shares Issued" was $239.0 million in Q4 2025.
- The company's annual shares outstanding have generally decreased over the last few years, from 981 million in 2023 to 962 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Salesforce plans to invest $15 billion in San Francisco over five years starting from October 2025, primarily to establish a new AI Incubator Hub and foster the AI ecosystem.
- Key acquisitions include Informatica for $8 billion (definitive agreement signed in 2025), Own Company for $1.9 billion (November 2024), and Zoomin for $450 million (January 2025).
- The company also acquired Slack for $27.7 billion in December 2020, significantly enhancing its collaboration capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Salesforce's capital expenditures were -$717 million in fiscal year 2022, -$798 million in fiscal year 2023, -$736 million in fiscal year 2024, -$658 million in fiscal year 2025, and -$594 million in fiscal year 2026.
- Capital expenditures averaged $652.3 million annually from fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2025, peaking at $730.5 million in January 2023.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.7% | -17.7% | -21.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 200.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 133.6 |
| Rev LTM | 32,989 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,939 |
| FCF LTM | 7,470 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,233 |
| CFO LTM | 12,752 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,829 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 35.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 133.6 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.1 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 28.6 |
| P/CFO | 16.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -20.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -34.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -32.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -62.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agentforce Service | 9,054 | 8,245 | 7,369 | 6,474 | 5,377 |
| Agentforce Sales | 8,322 | 7,580 | 6,831 | 5,989 | 5,191 |
| Agentforce 360 Platform, Slack and Other | 7,247 | 6,611 | 5,967 | 4,509 | 3,324 |
| Agentforce Integration and Agentforce Analytics | 5,775 | 5,189 | 4,338 | 3,783 | 2,951 |
| Agentforce Marketing and Agentforce Commerce | 5,281 | 4,912 | 4,516 | 3,902 | 3,133 |
| Professional services and other | 2,216 | 2,320 | 2,331 | 1,835 | 1,276 |
| Total | 37,895 | 34,857 | 31,352 | 26,492 | 21,252 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $178.16 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 166.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/23/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -38.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $186.87 | $229.67 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.7% | -22.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.2% | 34.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| Upside Capture | 42.51 | 59.82 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 14.8% | 31.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.56 | 0.42 | 0.62 | 0.76 | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | 2.03 | 1.04 | 1.54 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | -1.87 | -1.19 | -0.98 | -0.06 | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| Up Capture | -75% | 61% | 40% | 72% | 61% | 121% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 25 | 60 | 127 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 13% | 115% | 176% | 132% | 118% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 38 | 66 | 125 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | -28.4% | 34.9% | -0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 62.8% | 20.7% | 2.25 | 35.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 32.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 7.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 17.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | -4.7% | 36.3% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.5% | 24.8% | 0.67 | 61.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 59.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 37.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 26.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 9.0% | 34.9% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.2% | 24.4% | 0.87 | 66.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 62.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 39.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 19.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | 4.0% | 0.7% | -3.2% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% |
| 9/3/2025 | -4.9% | -5.4% | -6.7% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.3% | -4.7% | -0.8% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.0% | -5.0% | -9.6% |
| 12/3/2024 | 11.0% | 5.2% | 0.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.7% | -4.9% | 7.0% |
| 5/29/2024 | -19.7% | -12.9% | -5.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -6.3% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 26.0% | 30.2% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -18.6% | -18.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Revenue | 11.03 Bil | 11.05 Bil | 11.08 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2027 Diluted net income per share | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.79 | ||||
| 2027 Revenue | 45.80 Bil | 46.00 Bil | 46.20 Bil | 10.8% | Higher New | Actual: 41.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Diluted net income per share | 7.85 | 7.89 | 7.93 | 9.1% | Higher New | Actual: 7.23 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Operating margin | 20.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% | Higher New | Actual: 20.3% for 2026 | ||
| 2027 Operating cash flow growth | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | -29.6% | Lower New | Actual: 13.5% for 2026 | |
| 2030 Revenue | 63.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 12/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 11.13 Bil | 11.18 Bil | 11.23 Bil | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 EPS | 1.47 | 1.48 | 1.49 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 41.45 Bil | 41.50 Bil | 41.55 Bil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 41.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 7.22 | 7.23 | 7.24 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 20.3% | -4.2% | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 21.2% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow Growth | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 12.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Growth | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | Higher New | |||
CRM Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The final score reflects a compelling but high-risk investment case. The valuation is cheap and offers significant upside if the AI pivot is successful, justifying a high base score. However, this is balanced by the very real threat of core business deceleration, evidenced by weakening RPO, and intense competitive pressure from Microsoft. This is a classic 'battleground' stock where the outcome is uncertain, making a Market Weight position appropriate until there is clearer evidence that the new AI growth engine is decisively winning.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'Salesforce is a former high-growth company that is now focusing on profitability, FCF generation, and attempting to re-ignite growth through a significant pivot to its AI-driven 'Agentforce' platform. This perfectly aligns with the 'Transition / Profit Pivot' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Salesforce is successfully layering a new, hyper-growth AI and Data business on top of its mature CRM core. This new revenue stream is growing fast enough to offset the natural deceleration in the legacy business, re-accelerating blended revenue growth and driving margin expansion.
- Agentforce & Data 360 combined ARR reached over $2.9 billion in Q4 FY2026, growing over 200% YoY.
- Agentforce-specific ARR reached $800 million in its first full year, growing 169% YoY.
- In Q4 FY2026, seven of the top ten largest customer deals included components of the Agentforce AI platform.
- Current RPO growth of +16% YoY is outpacing overall revenue growth, signaling future acceleration.
PRIMARY RISK
Microsoft is aggressively bundling its 'good enough' Dynamics 365 and Copilot AI tools with its ubiquitous Office 365 and Azure platforms. This creates significant pricing pressure and threatens to erode Salesforce's market share in the core Sales and Service clouds, which remain the primary profit engine.
- Core growth is decelerating, with both Current RPO and Total RPO growth slowing in recent quarters.
- Microsoft possesses a structural cost advantage by owning its own Azure cloud infrastructure, allowing for more aggressive bundling.
- Salesforce's market share slightly decreased from 21.7% to 20.7% in the most recent year, despite the overall market growing.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Agentforce & Data 360 ARR Growth | >100% YoY | This is the primary evidence for the bull thesis. Sustained hyper-growth proves the new AI layer can offset core deceleration. |
| Current RPO (cRPO) Growth | Stabilizing or re-accelerating above 15% YoY | This is the best leading indicator of core business health. A stabilization or re-acceleration would invalidate the bear case of a rapidly decaying core. |
| Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Expansion towards 34.3% target | Confirms management's execution on the 'profit pivot' and demonstrates operating leverage, which is key for FCF generation and shareholder returns. |
AI Growth Engine vs. Core Business Erosion
BULL VIEW
Agentforce & Data Cloud ARR growth (>200% YoY) is a powerful new engine that will re-accelerate blended growth and drive significant margin expansion.
CORE TENSION
Can hyper-growth in the new Agentforce AI platform outpace the competitive pressure and deceleration of the core Sales and Service clouds from Microsoft's bundling strategy?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The core operational health is 'WEAKENING' with Current RPO growth decelerating, per the Market-Rewarded KPIs module. This supports the Bearish stance despite strong AI-layer growth.
BEAR VIEW
Slowing RPO growth confirms the core business is decaying under pressure from Microsoft, and the new AI revenue is not yet large enough to offset this decline.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late May 2026 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Watch: Current RPO (cRPO) growth rate. Must stabilize above the 16% baseline from Q4 to counter the bear thesis of core business decay. |
Late August 2026 | Q2 FY27 Earnings Call & Guidance Watch: FY27 Non-GAAP Operating Margin guidance. Watch for any retreat from the 34.3% target, which would signal pricing pressure from Microsoft is hitting profitability. |
September 15-17, 2026 | Dreamforce '26 AI Showcase Watch: Headline: Tangible, generally available Agentforce products with clear pricing vs. theoretical concepts. Success is defined by concrete deliverables. |
Late July 2026 | Microsoft Q4 FY26 Earnings Call Watch: Headline: Any specific commentary on Dynamics 365 + Copilot enterprise win rates against Salesforce. The key signal is competitive displacement. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 1, 2025 | Informatica Acquisition Completion Details: Salesforce completed its acquisition of Informatica in November 2025, aimed at enhancing its data integration and governance capabilities for the Agentforce platform. | Flat (0.4%) $259.34 -> $260.26 |
Dec 1, 2025 | Executive Change Announcement Details: Salesforce announced that David Ward from Lumen Technologies would assume the role of President and Chief Architect, a key technical leadership position. | Flat (0.8%) $231.87 -> $233.74 |
Dec 3, 2025 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings and Results Details: Raised FY26 revenue guidance. Announced Agentforce & Data 360 ARR hit nearly $1.4 billion, a 114% YoY increase. Reported cRPO growth of 11% YoY. | Rose significantly by 3.7% $237.74 -> $246.44 |
Feb 10, 2026 | Executive Reshuffle & Layoffs Details: Reports surfaced of workforce reductions affecting under 1,000 employees and a significant leadership reshuffle with six new appointments following five high-profile departures. | Fell notably by -4.4% $192.96 -> $184.53 |
Feb 25, 2026 | Q4 FY2026 Earnings and Results Details: Reported Q4 revenue growth of +10% YoY. Agentforce ARR hit $800M (+169% YoY). However, core business health showed weakness with decelerating cRPO growth of +16% YoY. | Rose significantly by 4.0% $191.27 -> $198.97 |
Apr 22, 2026 | Google Cloud Partnership Expansion Details: Salesforce and Google Cloud expanded their partnership, enabling AI agents to act across both platforms with deep context and end-to-end workflows. | Modest 1.4% gain $187.11 -> $189.80 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.3x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment and Contested Moat override the Cheap valuation, mandating a Conservative sizing to manage risk.
Diversification Alternatives
ROP
SECTORUnlike CRM's concentrated battle against Microsoft, ROP's diversified portfolio of niche, mission-critical software businesses provides a more durable, less volatile thesis.
PTC
INDUSTRYOperates in industrial/engineering software (CAD, PLM), a sector with high switching costs and less existential threat from generative AI compared to CRM's knowledge-worker focus.
Salesforce is transitioning from a portfolio of CRM applications into a unified, AI-first platform where automated 'agents' and human employees collaborate, driven by its Agentforce and Data Cloud offerings.
Filter all news through the lens of AI-driven growth and margin expansion. The key question is whether Agentforce and Data Cloud can re-accelerate growth and create a new, deeper moat.
Agentforce ARR growth >100% YoY; total RPO growth accelerating >15% YoY; large enterprise wins (> $10M) citing Agentforce as the driver; evidence of AI driving higher ARPU or seat expansion.
Deceleration in RPO growth below revenue growth; named enterprise customers choosing Microsoft's Copilot stack over Agentforce; pricing pressure on core Sales or Service clouds; any signs of negative leverage or margin compression.
Quarterly fluctuations in Professional Services revenue; individual benchmark comparisons with single-point competitors; executive commentary on macroeconomic conditions without specific impact metrics.
Repricing Catalyst
The rapid adoption of the Agentforce and Data 360 platforms, which collectively reached an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of over $2.9 billion in Q4 FY2026, growing over 200% YoY. This includes the Agentforce-specific ARR reaching $800 million, up 169% YoY, signaling a powerful new revenue stream and validation of its 'Agentic Enterprise' strategy. Management is targeting $60B+ in revenue by FY2030, implying a re-acceleration of growth.
Subscription & Support (Core CRM & Cloud Apps)
$39.4B TTM (95% of Total) · 77% MarginWhat It Is
Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, Marketing Cloud, Commerce Cloud, Tableau Analytics, MuleSoft integration, Slack collaboration platform, and the core Agentforce 360 Platform.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises like Amazon, Ford, AT&T, and Pfizer pay recurring subscription fees to unify customer data and workflows. The platform's deep integration, extensive customization via the AppExchange, and high switching costs create significant customer lock-in.
Competition
Professional Services & Other
$2.1B TTM (5% of Total) · 10% MarginWhat It Is
Consulting, implementation, and training services to help customers deploy and customize Salesforce products.
Who Pays & How
Large enterprise customers pay for these services to ensure successful, large-scale deployments and to build custom applications on the Salesforce platform.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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