ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $93.3 | Market Cap: $116.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $93.3Market Cap: $116.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 6.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil | Key risksCOP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6% |
| Key risksCOP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Global Oil Oversupply and Price Decline: A significant factor contributing to the stock's movement was the notable decline in global oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude trading at approximately $57-$60 per barrel, representing four-year lows by December 2025. This was driven by a growing global oil glut, where supply was outpacing demand, creating downward pressure on energy sector valuations, including ConocoPhillips.
2. Weakening Sentiment in the Energy Sector: The broader energy market experienced negative sentiment during this period due to the prevailing oversupply of oil and falling prices. By December 2025, an analyst indicator for the energy sector showed a "Red Zone signal," suggesting an excess of bullish investors, which is typically observed before a market decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.4% change in COP stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 5.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.16 | 93.31 | 2.35% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57798.00 | 59788.00 | 3.44% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.89% | 14.81% | -6.83% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.48 | 13.13 | 5.17% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1257.51 | 1245.25 | 0.97% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.34% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 2.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 21.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 0.9% | 88.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.5% change in COP stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.12 | 93.31 | 3.54% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57414.00 | 59788.00 | 4.13% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.62% | 14.81% | -10.92% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.03 | 13.13 | 9.16% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1273.35 | 1245.25 | 2.21% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.49% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 19.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 3.7% | 89.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.5% change in COP stock from 12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 22.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12222024 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.94 | 93.31 | 1.49% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55238.00 | 59788.00 | 8.24% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.01% | 14.81% | -17.77% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.74 | 13.13 | 22.28% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1161.32 | 1245.25 | -7.23% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.96% |
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 55.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 8.6% | 91.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.0% change in COP stock from 12/23/2022 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -38.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12232022 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 105.98 | 93.31 | -11.95% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 75056.00 | 59788.00 | -20.34% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.06% | 14.81% | -38.46% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.43 | 13.13 | 76.68% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1265.89 | 1245.25 | 1.63% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.98% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | -15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 10.2% | 89.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COP Return | -36% | 87% | 74% | 2% | -12% | -4% | 79% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 91% | 75% | -10% | -5% | -0% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COP Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 73% | 62% | 47% | 48% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COP Max Drawdown | -65% | -1% | 0% | -20% | -16% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -0% | 0% | -17% | -14% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 558 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 868 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,690 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EOG, OKE, EPM, BSM, COP
In The Past
ConocoPhillips's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.4% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
- The 'pure play' oil and gas producer, like the exploration and production division of an ExxonMobil or Chevron, but as a standalone company.
- A specialized 'mining' company for crude oil and natural gas, focused solely on finding and extracting these resources globally.
- Imagine the part of a major oil company like Shell or BP that only focuses on drilling and pumping oil from the ground, without any refineries or gas stations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Crude Oil: A raw fossil fuel extracted from subsurface reservoirs, primarily refined into various petroleum products like gasoline and diesel.
- Natural Gas: A gaseous hydrocarbon fuel, mainly methane, extracted from geological formations, used for heating, power generation, and industrial processes.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): A group of hydrocarbons, including ethane, propane, and butane, separated from natural gas, valued as petrochemical feedstocks and fuels.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Natural gas that has been supercooled into a liquid state for efficient global transportation and storage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (COP) is an upstream oil and gas company focused on exploration and production. As such, it primarily sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in large volumes to other companies rather than directly to individuals.
While ConocoPhillips typically does not disclose specific major customers by name in its public filings (unless a single customer accounts for more than 10% of its revenue, which is uncommon for a company with such a diverse portfolio and market reach), its customers generally fall into the following categories. The examples provided are representative of the types of companies that would be major purchasers from ConocoPhillips.
- Refining Companies: These companies purchase crude oil from ConocoPhillips to process it into various petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks.
- Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
- Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
- Phillips 66 (PSX) - Note: Phillips 66 was spun off from ConocoPhillips in 2012, becoming a major downstream customer for crude oil and NGLs.
- ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)
- Chevron Corporation (CVX)
- Natural Gas Marketers, Utilities, and Industrial Users: These entities purchase natural gas from ConocoPhillips for distribution to residential and commercial customers, power generation, or use in industrial processes.
- BP plc (BP) - Through its energy trading and marketing arms.
- Shell plc (SHEL) - Through its energy trading and marketing arms.
- Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) - Represents a type of large utility that would purchase natural gas, though not necessarily a direct, major customer of COP specifically disclosed by name.
- Commodity Trading Firms: These firms buy and sell large volumes of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs on global markets.
- Glencore plc (GLCNF)
- Vitol (Private Company)
- Trafigura (Private Company)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Schlumberger (SLB)
- Halliburton (HAL)
- Baker Hughes (BKR)
- NOV Inc. (NOV)
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Ryan Lance, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ryan Lance assumed the role of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ConocoPhillips in May 2012. He is a petroleum engineer with four decades of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. His career includes senior management and technical positions at ConocoPhillips, its predecessor Phillips Petroleum, and ARCO. Before becoming CEO, his executive assignments at ConocoPhillips included responsibilities for international exploration and production, regional oversight for Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and North America, and leadership in technology, major projects, downstream strategy, integration, and specialty functions. Lance spent 17 years with ARCO, where he ultimately served as vice president of Western North Slope operations in Alaska, which Phillips acquired in 2001.
Andrew M. O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Strategy and Commercial
Andrew M. O'Brien was appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective June 1, 2025. He also holds the title of Executive Vice President, Strategy and Commercial, overseeing finance, corporate planning, business development, commercial, sustainable development, and low carbon technology teams. O'Brien brings more than 27 years of experience within ConocoPhillips and its predecessor, Conoco. Prior to his CFO appointment, he served as Senior Vice President of Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability, and Technology. His past roles include leadership positions in global operations, treasury, corporate planning and development, and various finance, planning, and strategy roles across the U.K., Canada, Alaska, Indonesia, and Houston. He began his career as a financial analyst with Conoco in Warwick, England, in 1997. O'Brien is a chartered management accountant and earned a bachelor's degree in business administration from the University of Plymouth in 1996. He also serves on the board of directors for Aris Water Solutions, Inc.
Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Technical Functions
Kirk Johnson serves as the Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Technical Functions, leading the company's worldwide operations across Alaska, Asia Pacific, Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, and overseeing global technical functions as well as digital and information technology. He has over 25 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. Johnson started his career with BP in 1997, holding various engineering, operations, and project positions supporting oil and gas activities in Alaska. He joined ConocoPhillips in 2008, where he progressed through asset management and corporate planning roles. His previous leadership roles at ConocoPhillips include senior vice president, Lower 48 Assets and Operations; vice president, Corporate Planning and Development; and president, Canada.
Nicholas G. Olds, Executive Vice President, Lower 48 and Global HSE
Nicholas G. Olds is the Executive Vice President, Lower 48 and Global Health, Safety and Environment (HSE), responsible for ConocoPhillips' operations in the Lower 48 states and global HSE initiatives. He has 33 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry, having started his career with predecessor company Conoco in Houston in 1992. Throughout his tenure, Olds has held numerous engineering, development, operations, and management positions across the United States, Nigeria, Norway, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Alaska. His prior leadership roles include Executive Vice President, Global Operations; Vice President, Corporate Planning & Development; Vice President, Mid-Continent Business Unit in the Lower 48; and Vice President, North Slope Operations and Development in Alaska. Olds earned a bachelor's degree in petroleum engineering from Montana Tech University.
Kelly Brunetti Rose, Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Kelly Brunetti Rose is the Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for ConocoPhillips. In this capacity, she provides oversight on all legal issues affecting the corporation and also oversees communications, brand, charitable investments, and corporate events. ConocoPhillips announced her appointment as general counsel in 2018. Before joining ConocoPhillips, Rose was a corporate transactional partner at Baker Botts in Houston, where she spent her entire 27-year legal career. At Baker Botts, she advised ConocoPhillips and other significant oil and gas companies on numerous multi-billion-dollar mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures, and securities offerings. She is a 1991 graduate of the University of Florida Fredric Levin College of Law.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to ConocoPhillips's business are primarily driven by external market forces and the evolving regulatory landscape for the energy sector.- Volatile Commodity Prices: ConocoPhillips's operating results, ability to execute its strategy, and the carrying value of its assets are highly exposed to the effects of fluctuating crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) prices. These prices can vary significantly due to factors beyond the company's control, such as geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdowns, and overall supply and demand dynamics, directly impacting revenues, operating income, and cash flows.
- Environmental and Regulatory Risks, including Climate Change Policy: The company faces ongoing and increasing capital expenditures and operating costs to comply with environmental laws and regulations. New or more stringent climate change-related regulations, including potential carbon taxes or policies aimed at a net-zero energy transition, could significantly affect business plans, increase costs, and potentially reduce demand for the company's hydrocarbon products.
- Integration Challenges from Acquisitions: The acquisition of Marathon Oil presents integration challenges, including potential difficulties in realizing expected synergies and benefits, as well as the risk of higher-than-expected integration costs and disruptions to ongoing business operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (COP) faces clear emerging threats primarily stemming from the accelerating global energy transition, which directly impacts the long-term demand for its core products (oil and natural gas).
- **Rapid acceleration of Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption:** The exponential growth in electric vehicle sales globally represents a clear emerging threat to long-term crude oil demand. As EVs displace internal combustion engine vehicles, the demand for gasoline and diesel, and consequently the crude oil from which they are refined, is projected to decline. This trend is not a hypothetical but a measurable market shift with increasing policy support (e.g., bans on new gasoline car sales by certain dates in various regions), directly threatening the core market for a significant portion of ConocoPhillips' production.
- **Decreasing costs and increasing efficiency of renewable energy (solar, wind) coupled with advancements in battery storage:** The continuous and rapid reduction in the cost of solar and wind power, alongside significant improvements in battery storage technology, makes renewable energy increasingly competitive with fossil fuels for electricity generation. This directly threatens the long-term demand for natural gas, a key product for ConocoPhillips, especially in regions transitioning away from carbon-intensive power sources. As these technologies scale, they also enable broader electrification, indirectly reducing demand for oil in other sectors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (symbol: COP) is an independent exploration and production company primarily engaged in the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) on a global scale.
Addressable Markets for Main Products:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately $2.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach $3.0 trillion by 2033. North America is identified as the largest regional market for crude oil, with the Asia Pacific region holding a significant share of the global market revenue, estimated at 42.25% in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size was valued at USD 1127.09 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 2142.88 billion by 2032. North America continues to be the world's largest natural gas producer.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): The global liquefied natural gas market size was valued at approximately USD 122.60 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 226.97 billion by 2030. Another projection estimates the market could reach USD 1088.33 billion by 2033. The Asia Pacific region dominated the global LNG industry, accounting for over 81.1% of the revenue share in 2024. North America also accounts for a significant market share due to robust LNG exports.
- Bitumen and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): While ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets bitumen and natural gas liquids globally, specific global addressable market sizes for these products as standalone entities were not readily available in the provided search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (COP) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of increased production volumes, the advancement of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) portfolio, and strategic project developments, alongside disciplined capital allocation.
- Increased Production Volumes: ConocoPhillips has demonstrated consistent operational performance, exceeding production guidance and anticipating higher volumes. For the full year 2025, the company raised its production guidance to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). This growth is partly attributed to strong performance in its Lower 48 operations and the integration of acquisitions, such as the Marathon Oil acquisition, which is expected to contribute to higher production.
- Growth in LNG Projects: The company is making significant strides in its global LNG portfolio, which is poised to become a key revenue driver. ConocoPhillips expects its LNG projects, including Qatar NFE, Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, and Qatar NFS LNG startups, to contribute approximately $1 billion in annual free cash flow improvement from 2026 through 2028. The first LNG for New Fortress Energy is expected in 2026.
- Advancement of the Willow Project: The Willow project in Alaska, despite increased capital estimates, remains a crucial long-term growth asset. While its full impact on free cash flow, projected at approximately $7 billion, is anticipated by 2029, the continued development and progress toward its early 2029 online target will be a significant driver of future revenue potential within the next 2-3 years as it nears completion and begins to ramp up.
- Disciplined Capital Allocation and Cost Management: ConocoPhillips is focused on optimizing its financial performance through strategic capital expenditure management and cost reductions. The company plans to reduce capital outlays, with expected capital expenditures of approximately $12 billion in 2026, a decrease from 2025 levels, and operating costs projected to decline to approximately $10.2 billion in 2026. This disciplined approach, coupled with asset divestiture plans targeting $5 billion by the end of 2026, aims to enhance financial flexibility and boost free cash flow, effectively improving revenue quality and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- ConocoPhillips increased its existing share repurchase authorization by up to $20 billion in October 2024, raising the total authorization to not exceed $65 billion in aggregate repurchases.
- The company repurchased $5.5 billion in shares in 2024, $5.4 billion in 2023, and $9.3 billion in 2022.
- ConocoPhillips plans to repurchase over $20 billion in shares in the first three years following the Marathon Oil acquisition, with over $7 billion in the first full year.
Share Issuance
- The acquisition of Marathon Oil in November 2024 was an all-stock transaction, which involved the issuance of ConocoPhillips stock to Marathon Oil shareholders.
- ConocoPhillips reported 1.259 billion shares outstanding for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, reflecting a 7.58% increase year-over-year.
- In 2024, ConocoPhillips issued 3,670,653 stock-settled Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) upon vesting.
Outbound Investments
- ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Oil in November 2024 for $22.5 billion, including $5.4 billion of net debt, expanding its US unconventional position across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and Bakken shale basins.
- In September 2021, ConocoPhillips acquired Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Permian basin assets for approximately $9.5 billion in cash.
- In 2023, ConocoPhillips completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in Surmont for $2.7 billion.
Capital Expenditures
- ConocoPhillips funded $12.1 billion in capital expenditures and investments in 2024, and $11.248 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are approximately $12.9 billion, and for 2026, they are projected to be around $12 billion.
- Primary focuses of capital expenditures include projects like the Willow Project in Alaska and investments in LNG projects such as North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) in Qatar, and Port Arthur LNG Phase One.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to COP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 29.1% | 29.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -7.1% |
| 02292020 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | 12.0% | -53.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ConocoPhillips
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 86.1 |
| Rev LTM | 43,194 |
| Op Inc LTM | 10,044 |
| FCF LTM | 5,490 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,038 |
| CFO LTM | 15,594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,296 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 86.1 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 5.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -11.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $93.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 116.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/31/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $89.30 | $90.98 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.5% | 33.8% |
| Downside Capture | 22.87 | 69.81 |
| Upside Capture | 31.11 | 60.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.5% | 55.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Up Beta | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.98 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 1.42 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 1.44 | 1.09 |
| Up Capture | 24% | 9% | -21% | 17% | 34% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 63 | 126 | 372 |
| Down Capture | 29% | 69% | 46% | 19% | 82% | 88% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 62 | 122 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of COP With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -1.8% | 5.5% | 14.7% | 67.3% | 6.8% | -0.5% | -16.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 33.7% | 24.6% | 19.7% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 35.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 0.23 | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 91.5% | 55.9% | 5.6% | 65.7% | 45.2% | 22.7% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of COP With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 21.9% | 22.0% | 15.0% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 35.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 33.5% | 26.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.63 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 92.0% | 38.5% | 13.9% | 62.5% | 25.4% | 15.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of COP With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 10.1% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 69.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 38.7% | 29.8% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 90.2% | 52.1% | 3.9% | 61.0% | 38.7% | 12.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.3% | 1.6% | 6.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.5% | -3.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.4% | -2.0% | 1.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.2% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 14.9% | 48.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -5.9% | -15.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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