Tearsheet

Cogent Biosciences (COGT)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $39.25 | Market Cap: $5.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Cogent Biosciences (COGT)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $39.25
Market Cap: $5.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -308 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 556%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 327%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 138%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -308 Mil
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 556%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 327%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 138%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COGT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Bezuclastinib.

Cogent Biosciences received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for bezuclastinib in NonAdvanced Systemic Mastocytosis (NonAdvSM) patients, including those previously treated with avapritinib, and in patients with Smoldering Systemic Mastocytosis on October 20, 2025. This designation expedites the development and review of drugs for serious conditions and signals the potential for bezuclastinib to redefine the treatment paradigm for these diseases.

2. Positive Top-Line Results from Phase 3 PEAK Trial.

On November 10, 2025, Cogent Biosciences announced positive top-line results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib plus sunitinib in patients with imatinib-resistant Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST). The combination therapy demonstrated a 50% reduction in the risk of progression or death compared to sunitinib alone, with a median progression-free survival of 16.5 months versus 9.2 months. This significant clinical achievement suggests bezuclastinib has the potential to become a new standard of care in this patient population.

3. Strong Financial Position and Upcoming Milestones.

The company reported a strong pro forma cash position of $430 million as of September 30, 2025, which is expected to fund operations into 2027, including through the anticipated launch of bezuclastinib. Additionally, the company announced the upcoming reporting of top-line results from the registration-directed APEX trial in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) patients in December 2025, maintaining a positive outlook for future data readouts.

4. Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets.

Following the positive clinical trial results and regulatory updates in November 2025, several research analysts significantly upgraded their ratings and increased price targets for Cogent Biosciences. For example, HC Wainwright raised its price target to $50.00, Robert W. Baird increased its objective to $34.00, Wedbush upgraded the stock to "outperform" with a $38.00 target, and Leerink Partners raised its price objective to $50.00. These revisions reflected growing confidence in the company's pipeline and market potential.

5. Strategic Public Offerings to Support Growth.

On November 10, 2025, Cogent Biosciences commenced concurrent public offerings of $200 million in convertible senior notes due 2031 and $200 million of its common stock. This move was aimed at strengthening the company's capital position, enabling it to continue funding its operations, advancing its clinical programs, and preparing for the potential commercial launch of bezuclastinib. This strategic financing demonstrated the company's confidence in its future growth and ability to execute on its development plans.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COGT Return290%-24%35%-49%33%404%1265%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%3%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COGT Win Rate58%42%33%33%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COGT Max Drawdown-56%-47%-54%-65%-26%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOGTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven318.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven700 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven271.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven112 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-97.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3188.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Cogent Biosciences's stock fell -76.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2022. A -76.1% loss requires a 318.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cogent Biosciences (COGT)

Better Bets than Cogent Biosciences (COGT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cogent Biosciences

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COGTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCogent B.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price39.31457.36-2.631.17-20.97
Mkt Cap5.4116.9----61.2
Rev LTM011,723-0--0
Op Inc LTM-308-92--5---92
FCF LTM-2473,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1942,064--10---10
CFO LTM-2463,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1922,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

COGTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCogent B.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-----0.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----31.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----28.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

COGTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCogent B.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap5.4116.9----61.2
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-6.322.4----8.1
P/E-6.727.2----10.3
P/CFO-8.026.9----9.4
Total Yield-14.9%3.7%-----5.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.2%2.3%-----6.5%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.2-0.0-----0.1

Returns

COGTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCogent B.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn178.2%8.5%--23.2%-23.2%
3M Rtn203.8%15.2%----109.5%
6M Rtn556.3%3.1%----279.7%
12M Rtn326.8%-1.4%----162.7%
3Y Rtn214.5%44.0%----129.2%
1M Excs Rtn176.9%7.2%--22.0%-22.0%
3M Excs Rtn195.4%9.7%----102.5%
6M Excs Rtn540.8%-12.4%----264.2%
12M Excs Rtn301.7%-15.2%----143.3%
3Y Excs Rtn156.5%-28.7%----63.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development and commercialization of precision therapies for genetically defined diseases    22
Total    22


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development and commercialization of precision therapies for genetically defined diseases313301232251 
Total313301232251 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,477,473
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.8%
Average Daily Volume6,515,153
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.38
Basic Shares Quantity137,550,159
Short % of Basic Shares11.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021315202210-K 12/31/2021