Cogent Biosciences (COGT)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $39.25 | Market Cap: $5.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Cogent Biosciences (COGT)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $39.25Market Cap: $5.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -308 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 556%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 327% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 138% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -308 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 556%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 327% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 138% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
COGT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Bezuclastinib.
Cogent Biosciences received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for bezuclastinib in NonAdvanced Systemic Mastocytosis (NonAdvSM) patients, including those previously treated with avapritinib, and in patients with Smoldering Systemic Mastocytosis on October 20, 2025. This designation expedites the development and review of drugs for serious conditions and signals the potential for bezuclastinib to redefine the treatment paradigm for these diseases.
2. Positive Top-Line Results from Phase 3 PEAK Trial.
On November 10, 2025, Cogent Biosciences announced positive top-line results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib plus sunitinib in patients with imatinib-resistant Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST). The combination therapy demonstrated a 50% reduction in the risk of progression or death compared to sunitinib alone, with a median progression-free survival of 16.5 months versus 9.2 months. This significant clinical achievement suggests bezuclastinib has the potential to become a new standard of care in this patient population.
3. Strong Financial Position and Upcoming Milestones.
The company reported a strong pro forma cash position of $430 million as of September 30, 2025, which is expected to fund operations into 2027, including through the anticipated launch of bezuclastinib. Additionally, the company announced the upcoming reporting of top-line results from the registration-directed APEX trial in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) patients in December 2025, maintaining a positive outlook for future data readouts.
4. Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets.
Following the positive clinical trial results and regulatory updates in November 2025, several research analysts significantly upgraded their ratings and increased price targets for Cogent Biosciences. For example, HC Wainwright raised its price target to $50.00, Robert W. Baird increased its objective to $34.00, Wedbush upgraded the stock to "outperform" with a $38.00 target, and Leerink Partners raised its price objective to $50.00. These revisions reflected growing confidence in the company's pipeline and market potential.
5. Strategic Public Offerings to Support Growth.
On November 10, 2025, Cogent Biosciences commenced concurrent public offerings of $200 million in convertible senior notes due 2031 and $200 million of its common stock. This move was aimed at strengthening the company's capital position, enabling it to continue funding its operations, advancing its clinical programs, and preparing for the potential commercial launch of bezuclastinib. This strategic financing demonstrated the company's confidence in its future growth and ability to execute on its development plans.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COGT Return | 290% | -24% | 35% | -49% | 33% | 404% | 1265% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 3% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COGT Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COGT Max Drawdown | -56% | -47% | -54% | -65% | -26% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COGT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 318.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 271.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -97.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3188.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Cogent Biosciences's stock fell -76.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2022. A -76.1% loss requires a 318.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to COGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cogent Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 61.2 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 61.2 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 10.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | -5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 109.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 279.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 162.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 129.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 102.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 264.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 143.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 63.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and commercialization of precision therapies for genetically defined diseases | 22 | ||||
| Total | 22 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and commercialization of precision therapies for genetically defined diseases | 313 | 301 | 232 | 251 | |
| Total | 313 | 301 | 232 | 251 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |