Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $9.72 | Market Cap: $5.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $9.72Market Cap: $5.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.8% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 136% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32% Key risksCLF key risks include [1] a substantial reliance on the automotive industry, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 136% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32% |
| Key risksCLF key risks include [1] a substantial reliance on the automotive industry, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) stock has lost about 25% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Revenue and Weak Q1 2026 Guidance Significantly Impacted Investor Confidence. Cleveland-Cliffs reported its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings on February 9, 2026. While the company's adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.43 beat analysts' estimates of -$0.62 by 30.65%, its revenue fell short. Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $4.31 billion, missing the consensus estimate of approximately $4.6 billion. The market reacted negatively, with shares plummeting 9.5% pre-market and declining an additional 16.4% the day after the earnings announcement. Compounding this, the company's Q1 2026 EBITDA projection of roughly $140 million substantially missed the Bloomberg consensus of $321 million, leading to a further stock decline of 15-20%.
2. Weak Steel Demand, Particularly from the Automotive Sector, and an Uncertain Market Outlook. Cleveland-Cliffs' performance in 2025 was negatively affected by persistently weak production levels from the automotive sector throughout the year. This key customer segment, coupled with "value-destructive" legacy contracts that expired at year-end, contributed to a full-year 2025 GAAP net loss of $1.4 billion, which was roughly double the loss in 2024. While some projections for 2026 anticipate a modest rebound in global steel demand (e.g., World Steel expecting 1.8% growth aided by construction and investment), the overall steel market continues to navigate challenges from tariffs, shifting regional demand, environmental requirements, and geopolitical uncertainty.
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1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Revenue and Weak Q1 2026 Guidance Significantly Impacted Investor Confidence. Cleveland-Cliffs reported its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings on February 9, 2026. While the company's adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.43 beat analysts' estimates of -$0.62 by 30.65%, its revenue fell short. Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $4.31 billion, missing the consensus estimate of approximately $4.6 billion. The market reacted negatively, with shares plummeting 9.5% pre-market and declining an additional 16.4% the day after the earnings announcement. Compounding this, the company's Q1 2026 EBITDA projection of roughly $140 million substantially missed the Bloomberg consensus of $321 million, leading to a further stock decline of 15-20%.
2. Weak Steel Demand, Particularly from the Automotive Sector, and an Uncertain Market Outlook. Cleveland-Cliffs' performance in 2025 was negatively affected by persistently weak production levels from the automotive sector throughout the year. This key customer segment, coupled with "value-destructive" legacy contracts that expired at year-end, contributed to a full-year 2025 GAAP net loss of $1.4 billion, which was roughly double the loss in 2024. While some projections for 2026 anticipate a modest rebound in global steel demand (e.g., World Steel expecting 1.8% growth aided by construction and investment), the overall steel market continues to navigate challenges from tariffs, shifting regional demand, environmental requirements, and geopolitical uncertainty.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.3% change in CLF stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.28 | 9.66 | -27.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,622 | 18,610 | -0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.3 | -19.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 495 | 547 | -9.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CLF | -27.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 32.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.3% | 42.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.8% change in CLF stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.20 | 9.66 | -20.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,457 | 18,610 | 0.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | -13.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 495 | 547 | -9.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CLF | -20.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 43.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.3% | 41.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.5% change in CLF stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.22 | 9.66 | 17.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,185 | 18,610 | -3.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.3 | 36.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 486 | 547 | -11.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CLF | 17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 47.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.3% | 48.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -47.3% change in CLF stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.33 | 9.66 | -47.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 22,989 | 18,610 | -19.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.3 | -31.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 516 | 547 | -5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -47.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CLF | -47.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 45.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 34.5% | 50.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CLF Return | 50% | -26% | 27% | -54% | 41% | -29% | -35% |
| Peers Return | 77% | 35% | 25% | -9% | 36% | 10% | 308% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CLF Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 65% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CLF Max Drawdown | -8% | -45% | -14% | -55% | -38% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -13% | -6% | -12% | -9% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, RS, CMC. See CLF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 473 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 892.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NUE, STLD, RS, CMC
In The Past
Cleveland-Cliffs's stock fell -64.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/28/2022. A -64.1% loss requires a 178.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in North America. The company offers carbon steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel products; stainless steel products; plates; and grain oriented and non-oriented electrical steel products. It also provides tubular components, including carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing. In addition, the company offers tinplate products, such as electrolytic tin coated and chrome coated sheet, and tin mill products; tooling and sampling; raw materials; ingots, rolled blooms, and cast blooms; and hot-briquetted iron products. Further, it owns five iron ore mines in Minnesota and Michigan. The company serves automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, distributors and converters, and steel producers. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. and changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
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- The Alcoa for steel
- The Intel of heavy industry materials
- The Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) of the metals industry
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- Flat-Rolled Steel Products: Cleveland-Cliffs produces a wide range of carbon steel products such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and various galvanized steels, along with stainless steel, plates, and electrical steel products.
- Tubular Components: The company offers carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing.
- Tinplate Products: They provide electrolytic tin coated and chrome coated sheet, and other tin mill products.
- Intermediate Steel Forms: This category includes ingots, rolled blooms, and cast blooms, which are semi-finished steel products.
- Hot-Briquetted Iron (HBI): Cleveland-Cliffs produces hot-briquetted iron, a premium metallic feedstock for steelmaking.
- Iron Ore: The company owns and operates iron ore mines, providing a key raw material for steel production.
- Tooling and Sampling: They also offer specialized tooling and sampling services as part of their operations.
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Lourenco Goncalves
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Lourenco Goncalves has served as Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Cleveland-Cliffs since August 2014. He spearheaded a significant strategic initiative that transformed Cleveland-Cliffs into a prominent player in the U.S. steel industry. Mr. Goncalves successfully led four major company acquisitions, including AK Steel in March 2020, ArcelorMittal USA in December 2020, Ferrous Processing and Trading Company in November 2021, and Stelco Holdings Inc. in November 2024. Prior to his tenure at Cleveland-Cliffs, he served for over 10 years as Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Metals USA Holdings Corp. Before that, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of California Steel Industries, Inc. for five years. Earlier in his career, Mr. Goncalves was employed by Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN), a major steel and mining company in Brazil, and was a board member of Ascometal SAS from October 2011 to April 2014.
Celso L. Goncalves
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Celso L. Goncalves is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., where he oversees Finance, Accounting, Tax, Treasury, Investor Relations, and Business Development. He joined Cleveland-Cliffs in September 2016 as Assistant Treasurer and progressed through various financial roles, including Senior Vice President of Finance & Treasurer, before assuming his current position in September 2021. Before joining Cleveland-Cliffs, Mr. Goncalves worked in the Industrials Investment Banking group at Deutsche Bank in New York, where he executed capital markets and strategic advisory transactions for corporate and private equity clients globally. He also served in the Leveraged Finance group at Jefferies in New York, structuring and executing High Yield and Leveraged Loan transactions, and was a founding member of Jefferies' Latin America Investment Banking group.
Clifford T. Smith
Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Clifford T. Smith holds the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer at Cleveland-Cliffs. He is responsible for the executive leadership of the Steelmaking business' operations and commercial sales, and he also oversees the company's Research and Innovation Center and technology group. Mr. Smith played a crucial role in the company's acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA in 2020.
James D. Graham
Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer & Secretary
James D. Graham serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer & Secretary for Cleveland-Cliffs. His executive responsibilities encompass Legal, Risk Management, Compliance, Government Relations, Human Resources & Labor Relations, Benefits, Corporate Communications, and Strategic Partnerships.
Paul Finan
Executive Vice President, Strategic Development
Paul Finan is the Executive Vice President, Strategic Development of Cleveland-Cliffs. In this role, he is responsible for the company's strategic planning, budgeting, forecasting, corporate financial analysis, and investor relations functions. Mr. Finan began his career with Cleveland-Cliffs in 2010 within the Financial Development Program, and his previous roles include Senior Vice President of Finance from 2021 to 2025 and head of investor relations from 2014 to 2021.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) faces several key risks inherent to the steel industry and its operational model.Key Risks to Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
- Economic Downturns and Cyclical Demand: The demand for steel is highly cyclical and closely tied to the overall health of the economy, particularly in key end-markets such as automotive, infrastructure, and manufacturing. A slowdown in these sectors, or a broader economic recession, directly translates to decreased demand for Cleveland-Cliffs' products, leading to lower sales, reduced capacity utilization, and negatively impacting profitability and cash flow. For instance, weak demand from the automotive sector negatively affected CLF's performance in 2025.
- Volatility in Steel and Raw Material Prices: Cleveland-Cliffs operates in an industry characterized by significant fluctuations in the prices of steel, as well as key raw materials like iron ore. These price volatilities, influenced by global economic activity, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical developments, can severely impact the company's revenue, profit margins, and financial stability. Historically, steel prices have experienced substantial swings, with surges and collapses affecting profitability.
- Impact of Trade Policies and Import Competition: The steel industry is significantly influenced by international trade policies, including tariffs, quotas, and trade agreements. Changes in these policies can lead to increased import competition, especially from countries with overcapacity like China, which can depress domestic steel prices and reduce market share for North American producers like Cleveland-Cliffs. Trade tensions and the influx of lower-priced imports can create an uneven playing field and hinder the profitability of domestic steelmakers.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates in several significant North American markets for its main products and services. Here's an overview of the estimated addressable market sizes:
- Flat-Rolled Steel Products: The U.S. flat steel market, which holds a commanding 90.0% share in North America, was valued at approximately $50 billion in 2024. Based on this, the estimated addressable market for flat-rolled steel products in North America is approximately $55.55 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.0% from 2025 to 2035.
- Tubular Components: The North America steel pipes & tubes market generated a revenue of USD 30,788.3 million in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 36,333.9 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.1% from 2023 to 2030. More specifically, the North America Welded Steel Tubes Market was valued at US$ 40,096.5 million in 2024 and is expected to reach US$ 59,364.1 million by 2031, registering a CAGR of 6.2% from 2025 to 2031.
- Tinplate Products: The tinplate market in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, reaching an estimated value of USD 5,771.4 million by 2032.
- Iron Ore: The North America Iron Ore Mining Market size was USD 76,619.30 million in 2024 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 7.2% from 2024 to 2031.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) over the Next 2-3 Years
- Recovery and Growth in Automotive Demand: Cleveland-Cliffs, as a primary supplier of automotive-grade steel in the U.S., is expected to benefit significantly from a rebound in the North American automotive sector. The company has secured multi-year fixed-price contracts with major automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and management anticipates improved automotive shipments and higher utilization rates for its steel products in 2026 and beyond.
- Increased Steel Pricing (Average Selling Prices - ASPs): Management forecasts a reversal in realized steel prices, projecting an improvement of approximately $60 per ton in average selling prices in 2026 compared to 2025. This positive outlook for pricing is attributed to stabilizing market conditions, tightening import conditions, and generally higher spot steel prices.
- Termination of a Low-Margin Slab Supply Contract: The termination of an index-based slab contract with ArcelorMittal is considered a "game changer" for Cleveland-Cliffs' profitability. This move is expected to generate an estimated $500 million in incremental EBITDA annually, driven by approximately $700 million in revenue benefit at current hot-rolled coil (HRC) spreads, even after accounting for increased conversion costs.
- Growing Demand for Electrical Steels: Cleveland-Cliffs is the sole North American producer of Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES) and Non-Oriented Electrical Steel (NOES), crucial for transformers and electric vehicle motors. Demand for these specialized steels is at record levels, propelled by the expansion and modernization of the U.S. electrical grid, the proliferation of data centers, and government initiatives like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The company's investment in a new electrical transformer production plant, slated for early 2026, is expected to further boost demand for its GOES.
- Manufacturing Onshoring and Trade Protection: The prevailing "Fortress America" trend, characterized by reshoring initiatives and existing Section 232 tariffs on imported steel, is expected to drive increased domestic steel demand. Cleveland-Cliffs is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its status as an American-owned and operated steel company, potentially benefiting from government-linked infrastructure projects and strategic partnerships designed to attract foreign investment.
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Share Repurchases
- Cleveland-Cliffs' annual share buybacks totaled $733 million in 2024.
- In 2023, the company executed $152 million in annual share repurchases.
- A new $1.5 billion share repurchase program was authorized in April 2024.
Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs commenced an underwritten public offering of 75,000,000 common shares, with an option for the underwriter to purchase up to an additional 11,250,000 common shares.
- The offering of 75 million common shares was priced at approximately $12.85 per share, aiming to generate gross proceeds of $964 million to repay borrowings and for general corporate purposes.
- Cleveland-Cliffs' shares outstanding increased by 5.77% year-over-year for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, reaching 495 million.
Inbound Investments
- In March 2024, Cleveland-Cliffs announced that two of its projects were selected for award negotiations for up to $575 million in total funding from the U.S. Department of Energy, aimed at accelerating industrial decarbonization technologies.
- POSCO, Korea's largest steel manufacturer, was identified as Cleveland-Cliffs' strategic partner under a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) executed on September 17, 2025, with formal agreements anticipated by late 2025 or early 2026 and transaction completion expected in 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Cleveland-Cliffs completed the acquisition of Stelco Holdings Inc. for C$3.27 billion (approximately $2.5 billion) in November 2024, enhancing its steel production capabilities and diversifying its markets in North America.
- In October 2025, the company announced its aggressive foray into rare earth mineral production, based on indicators at existing mining sites in Michigan and Minnesota.
- In 2021, Cleveland-Cliffs acquired a scrap metals business, which serves to diversify its feedstock, particularly for electric arc furnaces.
Capital Expenditures
- Cleveland-Cliffs reported capital expenditures of $943 million in 2022, $646 million in 2023, and $695 million in 2024.
- The company expects capital expenditures to be approximately $700 million for full-year 2025 and 2026.
- Capital expenditures are projected to increase to approximately $900 million in 2027 for the Burns Harbor reline, before returning to around $700 million in 2028.
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| 04302023 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 17.4% | -9.8% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 189.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 18,177 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,004 |
| FCF LTM | 394 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 780 |
| CFO LTM | 840 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,311 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 22.5 |
| P/CFO | 13.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 57.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 25.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.00 | $11.38 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.4% | -15.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.8% | 72.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| Upside Capture | 1.43 | 235.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.2% | 39.2% |
CLF Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.82 | 2.02 | 1.73 | 2.55 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
| Up Beta | -2.59 | 3.26 | 1.82 | 2.90 | 1.48 | 1.47 |
| Down Beta | 2.01 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.44 | 1.92 | 1.82 |
| Up Capture | 125% | -34% | 32% | 247% | 448% | 562% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 17 | 30 | 69 | 133 | 366 |
| Down Capture | 244% | 234% | 204% | 212% | 160% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 31 | 54 | 114 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLF | 36.0% | 72.3% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 29.7% | 16.7% | 1.38 | 42.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | 20.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | 17.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 25.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 27.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLF | -11.2% | 59.3% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.3% | 18.9% | 0.28 | 55.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 46.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 16.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 25.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 22.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLF | 13.6% | 64.8% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.8% | 20.6% | 0.47 | 53.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 45.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 28.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/9/2026 | -16.4% | -29.5% | -35.2% |
| 10/20/2025 | 21.5% | -1.4% | -17.6% |
| 7/21/2025 | 12.4% | 20.7% | 11.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -11.2% | -10.5% |
| 2/3/2025 | 8.0% | 21.6% | 3.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -11.4% | -4.5% | -5.1% |
| 7/22/2024 | 4.4% | 0.3% | -18.5% |
| 4/22/2024 | -11.0% | -13.4% | -16.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.9% | -6.5% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 21.5% | 21.6% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -29.5% | -35.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Steel shipment volumes | 16.50 Mil | 16.75 Mil | 17.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Steel unit cost reductions | 10 | -80.0% | -40 | Lower New | Actual: 50 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 700.00 Mil | 33.3% | Higher New | Actual: 525.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Selling, general and administrative expenses | 575.00 Mil | 4.6% | Higher New | Actual: 550.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Depreciation, depletion and amortization | 1.10 Bil | -8.3% | Lower New | Actual: 1.20 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Cash Pension and OPEB payments and contributions | 125.00 Mil | -16.7% | Lower New | Actual: 150.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 525.00 Mil | -12.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Selling, general and administrative expenses | 550.00 Mil | -4.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 575.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Steel unit cost reductions | 50 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 50 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Depreciation, depletion and amortization | 1.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.20 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Cash Pension and OPEB payments and contributions | 150.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 150.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Graham, James D | EVP Chief Legal Admin & Sec | Direct | Sell | 5232025 | 6.85 | 120,000 | 822,036 | 3,372,052 | Form |
| 2 | Goncalves, Lourenco | Chairman, President & CEO | 2025 grantor retained annuity trust | Sell | 2112026 | 12.42 | 3,000,000 | Form | ||
| 3 | Camara, Edilson | Direct | Buy | 2132026 | 10.13 | 19,700 | 199,626 | 425,426 | Form | |
| 4 | Smith, Clifford T | EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 10.46 | 200,000 | 2,092,080 | 5,863,358 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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