Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.3%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 132%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.3%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 132%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CLF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Positive Outlook: Cleveland-Cliffs reported its third-quarter 2025 results on October 20, 2025. While consolidated revenues of $4.7 billion missed the $4.9 billion forecast, the company achieved a significant 51% sequential increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $143 million, up from $94 million in the second quarter of 2025. This improvement, despite a net loss, was perceived positively by investors, leading to a stock surge of as much as 24% after the announcement.

2. Increased Demand for Automotive-Grade Steel and Strategic Partnerships: The company's CEO highlighted a clear recovery in demand for automotive-grade steel in the U.S., which was attributed to new trade environments. Cleveland-Cliffs secured new multi-year supply agreements with major automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), with automotive sales comprising 30% of its direct sales. Additionally, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a major global steel producer was announced, aiming to leverage Cliffs' U.S. footprint and expected to be highly accretive for shareholders.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CLF Return77%50%-26%27%-54%43%63%
Peers Return2%77%35%25%-9%38%285%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CLF Win Rate58%58%42%58%33%83% 
Peers Win Rate56%62%50%50%58%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CLF Max Drawdown-63%-8%-45%-14%-55%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-6%-13%-6%-12%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, RS, CMC. See CLF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-63.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven214 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-52.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven473 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven892.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to NUE, KNF, STLD, CRS, RS


In The Past

Cleveland-Cliffs's stock fell -64.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/28/2022. A -64.1% loss requires a 178.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)

Better Bets than Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CLF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
CLF_4302023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE04302023CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%17.4%-9.8%
CLF_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.0%-11.5%-31.3%
CLF_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-37.3%-63.7%
CLF_9302017_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302017CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.8%77.1%-18.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
CLF_4302023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE04302023CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%17.4%-9.8%
CLF_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.0%-11.5%-31.3%
CLF_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-37.3%-63.7%
CLF_9302017_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302017CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.8%77.1%-18.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cleveland-Cliffs

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CLFNUESTLDRSCMCMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Steel Dy.Reliance Commerci. 
Mkt Price12.71165.11171.97291.5370.56165.11
Mkt Cap6.331.125.315.37.915.3
Rev LTM18,62231,88317,63513,9227,79817,635
Op Inc LTM-1,5392,5181,519982520982
FCF LTM-1,547-331311662312311
FCF 3Y Avg1412,5121,0181,0735421,018
CFO LTM-9213,1681,5241,0297151,029
CFO 3Y Avg8045,3532,5621,4889861,488

Growth & Margins

CLFNUESTLDRSCMCMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Steel Dy.Reliance Commerci. 
Rev Chg LTM-6.8%1.7%-1.5%-0.9%-1.6%-1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.2%-9.3%-8.0%-7.0%-4.3%-7.2%
Rev Chg Q3.6%14.5%11.2%6.8%5.9%6.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%3.5%2.8%1.7%1.5%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM-8.3%7.9%8.6%7.1%6.7%7.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.9%12.9%13.7%9.6%9.5%9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.9%0.5%-0.2%0.7%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-4.9%9.9%8.6%7.4%9.2%8.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.6%16.0%13.8%10.3%11.9%11.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.3%-1.0%1.8%4.8%4.0%1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%7.2%5.4%7.4%6.5%6.5%

Valuation

CLFNUESTLDRSCMCMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Steel Dy.Reliance Commerci. 
Mkt Cap6.331.125.315.37.915.3
P/S0.31.01.21.10.81.0
P/EBIT-3.9-13.813.441.813.6
P/E-3.618.818.220.275.518.8
P/CFO-6.69.813.414.38.99.8
Total Yield-27.7%7.0%6.9%6.7%2.6%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%1.4%1.7%1.3%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.5%-5.6%7.0%8.9%6.3%
D/E1.3-0.20.10.20.2
Net D/E1.3-0.10.10.00.1

Returns

CLFNUESTLDRSCMCMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Steel Dy.Reliance Commerci. 
1M Rtn20.9%13.2%11.2%7.1%18.5%13.2%
3M Rtn8.8%17.3%32.1%0.7%22.4%17.3%
6M Rtn77.3%36.5%29.8%-5.2%46.8%36.5%
12M Rtn24.5%34.2%42.7%1.5%25.1%25.1%
3Y Rtn-18.8%16.6%65.5%49.7%50.4%49.7%
1M Excs Rtn15.6%11.6%9.3%6.4%15.4%11.6%
3M Excs Rtn3.7%13.9%28.0%-2.6%17.9%13.9%
6M Excs Rtn63.0%22.3%15.6%-19.4%32.6%22.3%
12M Excs Rtn-9.1%6.4%16.0%-16.5%2.7%2.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-93.3%-58.4%-6.4%-27.2%-24.5%-27.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steelmaking    1,990
Total    1,990


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steelmaking16,88018,07018,32615,8492,557
Other Businesses657315306239 
Corporate507    
Intersegment eliminations-507370343683947
Total17,53718,75518,97516,7713,504


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity69,623,556
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.3%
Average Daily Volume20,063,864
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.47
Basic Shares Quantity495,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/20/202521.5%-1.4%-17.6%
7/21/202512.4%20.7%11.6%
5/7/2025-15.8%-11.2%-10.5%
2/3/20258.0%21.6%3.1%
11/4/2024-11.4%-4.5%-5.1%
7/22/20244.4%0.3%-18.5%
4/22/2024-11.0%-13.4%-16.0%
1/29/20246.6%5.3%7.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121013
# Negative111310
Median Positive6.5%9.4%8.0%
Median Negative-7.9%-6.5%-14.1%
Max Positive21.5%21.6%19.9%
Max Negative-15.8%-16.4%-55.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021