Columbia Financial (CLBK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.95 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Columbia Financial (CLBK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.95Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 21x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 103x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.16 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.5% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments. | Uninsured deposits are highUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 81% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.16 |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 21x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 103x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Uninsured deposits are highUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 81% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CLBK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Improved Lending Environment and Federal Reserve Actions. Columbia Financial, along with the broader savings and loan industry, experienced a boost from an improved lending environment. This improvement was largely supported by a Federal Reserve rate cut and indications of further easing, which were expected to stabilize funding costs for financial institutions and enhance income from loans. 2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. The company reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with revenues increasing by 29.4% compared to the previous year, exceeding analysts' expectations. Net income significantly rose to $14.9 million, up from $6.2 million in Q3 2024, and the Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.15 surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.13.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CLBK Return | -8% | 34% | 4% | -11% | -18% | 3% | -4% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CLBK Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CLBK Max Drawdown | -37% | -1% | -10% | -32% | -28% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CLBK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 640 days | 120 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Columbia Financial's stock fell -36.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/27/2022. A -36.0% loss requires a 56.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CLBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 07312022 | CLBK | Columbia Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.0% | -14.1% | -28.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 07312022 | CLBK | Columbia Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.0% | -14.1% | -28.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Columbia Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |