Cognition Therapeutics (CGTX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1.755 | Market Cap: $111.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Cognition Therapeutics (CGTX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1.755Market Cap: $111.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -52% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 507%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 363% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -171% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 152% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -52% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -33 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 507%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 363% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -171% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 152% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CGTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -27.6% movement in Cognition Therapeutics (CGTX) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Dilutive Registered Direct Offering: In late August 2025, Cognition Therapeutics announced a $30 million registered direct offering of 14,700,000 shares of common stock. This significant issuance of new shares diluted the ownership of existing shareholders and was a primary driver of stock declines, including a reported 17% fall on August 28, 2025.
2. Reduced Analyst Price Targets: Leading into the period, analysts significantly re-evaluated Cognition Therapeutics, with the average price target decreasing from $5.51 to $3.32 between April and July 2025. This downward adjustment in expectations, sometimes citing anticipated equity dilution, reflected a less optimistic outlook for the company's future valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CGTX Return | - | - | -67% | -12% | -62% | 151% | -72% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 3% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CGTX Win Rate | - | 0% | 25% | 25% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CGTX Max Drawdown | - | - | -81% | -54% | -80% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CGTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1252.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Cognition Therapeutics's stock fell -92.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -92.6% loss requires a 1252.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CGTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cognition Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.5 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -70 |
| FCF LTM | -31 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -31 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -350.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -302.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -304.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.5 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 13.3 |
| P/CFO | 13.1 |
| Total Yield | -81.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -35.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 254.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 180.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 239.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 155.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11172021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
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| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |