Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.895 | Market Cap: $940.1 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.895Market Cap: $940.1 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 141% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 141% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CGBD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the approximate -4.9% movement in Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss
Carlyle Secured Lending reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, with both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue falling short of Wall Street expectations. The company reported an EPS of $0.38 against a consensus estimate of $0.39, and revenue of $66.51 million compared to the expected $69.83 million. This earnings miss contributed to an immediate stock price decline of 2.38% to $12.17 following the announcement.
2. Decrease in Net Asset Value (NAV)
The company experienced a slight decrease in its net asset value per share, which stood at $16.36 as of September 30, 2025, down from $16.43 at the end of the prior quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CGBD Return | -8% | 49% | 18% | 18% | 33% | -23% | 96% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 14% | -11% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CGBD Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 75% | 67% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 28% | 45% | 38% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CGBD Max Drawdown | -66% | -0% | -9% | -6% | -1% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -10% | -25% | -9% | -9% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CGBD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 507 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX
In The Past
Carlyle Secured Lending's stock fell -21.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/12/2022. A -21.6% loss requires a 27.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CGBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carlyle Secured Lending
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 92 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 52 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 52 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -27.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -28.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | -5.6 |
| Total Yield | 18.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| D/E | 1.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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