Tearsheet

Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $12.54 | Market Cap: $914.2 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $12.54
Market Cap: $914.2 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 140%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%
4   Key risks
CGBD key risks include [1] vulnerability to margin compression from rapid rate cuts due to its highly floating-rate loan portfolio and [2] persistent pressure on its declining Net Asset Value (NAV).
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 140%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%
8 Key risks
CGBD key risks include [1] vulnerability to margin compression from rapid rate cuts due to its highly floating-rate loan portfolio and [2] persistent pressure on its declining Net Asset Value (NAV).

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CGBD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the stock movement of Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Net Investment Income (NII) Concerns: Carlyle Secured Lending reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.38, slightly missing analyst expectations of $0.39. Net investment income (NII) for the quarter amounted to $0.38 per share, representing a notable decline from the prior year's $0.47 per share, leading to concerns that net investment income no longer sufficiently covers distributions.

2. Continued Decline in Net Asset Value (NAV): The company experienced a continued decrease in its net asset value per common share. NAV declined from $16.85 per share as of September 30, 2024, to $16.36 per share by the end of Q3 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CGBD Return-8%49%18%18%33%-22%98%
Peers Return-10%32%21%-7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CGBD Win Rate58%75%75%67%83%58% 
Peers Win Rate80%45%72%72%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CGBD Max Drawdown-66%-0%-9%-6%-1%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-2%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCGBDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-21.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-67.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven209.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven507 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX


In The Past

Carlyle Secured Lending's stock fell -21.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/12/2022. A -21.6% loss requires a 27.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD)

Better Bets than Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CGBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carlyle Secured Lending

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CGBDARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameCarlyle .Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
Mkt Price12.5219.9412.6514.6927.3713.4614.07
Mkt Cap0.914.16.54.16.33.65.2
Rev LTM841,551742362647408527
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-162-1,5581,3651,375-1,133-114-138
FCF 3Y Avg88-1,0897701,459-710142115
CFO LTM-162-1,5581,3651,375-1,133-114-138
CFO 3Y Avg88-1,0897701,459-710142115

Growth & Margins

CGBDARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameCarlyle .Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
Rev Chg LTM-21.7%-11.2%5.7%-39.6%-10.7%52.3%-10.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.8%20.8%18.9%61.4%21.1%39.8%20.9%
Rev Chg Q19.9%5.5%-0.7%34.1%-9.3%10.7%8.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.5%1.6%-0.1%19.1%-2.3%2.5%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-193.0%-100.5%183.8%379.8%-175.2%-27.9%-64.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg82.1%-63.3%98.6%274.7%-95.5%57.3%69.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-193.0%-100.5%183.8%379.8%-175.2%-27.9%-64.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg82.1%-63.3%98.6%274.7%-95.5%57.3%69.7%

Valuation

CGBDARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameCarlyle .Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
Mkt Cap0.914.16.54.16.33.65.2
P/S10.89.18.711.49.88.89.4
P/EBIT-------
P/E12.310.49.715.110.59.510.4
P/CFO-5.6-9.14.73.0-5.6-31.6-5.6
Total Yield18.9%18.5%21.5%25.7%20.0%20.8%20.4%
Dividend Yield10.8%8.8%11.3%19.1%10.5%10.3%10.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.5%-7.6%12.8%29.1%-10.7%4.4%8.0%
D/E1.41.11.51.81.21.41.4
Net D/E1.41.01.41.71.21.41.4

Returns

CGBDARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameCarlyle .Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
1M Rtn2.5%2.9%2.5%-1.6%3.1%0.9%2.5%
3M Rtn-4.4%-5.3%-7.1%-3.1%1.7%-3.4%-3.9%
6M Rtn-4.2%-2.9%-7.6%-22.2%-7.5%-2.7%-5.9%
12M Rtn-22.2%2.0%-7.2%-19.5%-6.1%-0.8%-6.6%
3Y Rtn23.8%45.5%52.0%33.0%66.2%45.1%45.3%
1M Excs Rtn3.7%1.6%2.8%-2.3%1.1%-0.5%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-4.9%-4.6%-6.5%-2.3%1.2%-3.4%-4.0%
6M Excs Rtn-16.4%-16.3%-19.8%-34.4%-20.1%-13.7%-18.1%
12M Excs Rtn-34.5%-10.6%-19.6%-32.4%-17.7%-12.9%-18.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.6%-29.5%-25.6%-41.1%-9.5%-27.2%-28.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment224189245100175
Total224189245100175


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity609,448
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-10.1%
Average Daily Volume574,592
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.06
Basic Shares Quantity72,902,981
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-2.7%-3.3%4.0%
8/5/2025-1.0%1.0%0.5%
5/6/2025-4.2%-0.4%-2.4%
2/25/20251.9%-1.2%-1.3%
11/5/2024-2.3%-2.5%3.8%
8/5/2024-3.7%-3.0%1.0%
5/7/20240.6%3.1%2.8%
2/26/20245.7%5.9%7.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161318
# Negative8116
Median Positive2.8%5.8%5.1%
Median Negative-2.5%-2.5%-3.9%
Max Positive10.8%18.8%36.4%
Max Negative-4.2%-3.9%-57.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021