Cogent Communications (CCOI)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $18.84 | Market Cap: $896.8 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Alternative Carriers
Cogent Communications (CCOI)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $18.84Market Cap: $896.8 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Alternative Carriers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 137% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, and Data Centers & Infrastructure. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 184x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, and Data Centers & Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 137% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 184x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CCOI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -50.9% stock movement for Cogent Communications (CCOI) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Significant Dividend Cut and Missed Revenue Expectations: Cogent Communications announced a drastic 98% cut in its quarterly dividend to $0.02 for Q4 2025, ending a 12-year streak of dividend increases. This decision, aimed at accelerating deleveraging, was a major blow to income investors. Concurrently, the company reported Q3 2025 service revenue of $241.9 million, which missed analyst estimates and represented a 1.7% sequential and 5.9% year-over-year decline.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Following the Q3 2025 earnings release and the dividend cut in early November, numerous prominent investment firms downgraded CCOI's rating and substantially lowered their price targets. Analysts from Wells Fargo, UBS, Keybanc, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, among others, reduced their price targets by significant percentages (ranging from 24% to over 50%), contributing to a less favorable market outlook and investor sentiment. The consensus rating for the stock shifted towards "Hold" or "Reduce."
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CCOI Return | -5% | 28% | -17% | 41% | 7% | -74% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 19% | -36% | 3% | 46% | -1% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CCOI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 47% | 38% | 50% | 48% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CCOI Max Drawdown | -16% | -5% | -30% | 0% | -30% | -77% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -5% | -49% | -34% | -40% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSAT, LUMN, IRDM, UNIT, CCOI. See CCOI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CCOI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 504 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 886.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1793 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TSAT, LUMN, IRDM, UNIT, CCOI
In The Past
Cogent Communications's stock fell -38.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -38.7% loss requires a 63.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CCOI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| 05312020 | CCOI | Cogent Communications | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.3% | 3.4% | -28.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| 05312020 | CCOI | Cogent Communications | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.3% | 3.4% | -28.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cogent Communications
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| Rev LTM | 988 |
| Op Inc LTM | 170 |
| FCF LTM | 38 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 59 |
| CFO LTM | 376 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 358 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | -1.0 |
| P/E | -2.5 |
| P/CFO | 4.1 |
| Total Yield | 0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| D/E | 2.9 |
| Net D/E | 2.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -34.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -105.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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