Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -135%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.8
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Distributed Energy Resources, Grid Automation, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.7%
2   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 205%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2751%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40%
6   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 162%
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Distributed Energy Resources, Grid Automation, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -135%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171%
3 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.8
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.7%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 205%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2751%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 162%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CAPS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Capstone Green Energy (CGEH, formerly CAPS) experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping by approximately 39.35% from an all-time high of $3.10 on November 18, 2025, to $1.85 by November 21, 2025. This substantial movement, occurring within the requested timeframe, can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Lingering Going Concern Doubts and Debt Obligations. An article on October 15, 2025, highlighted "substantial doubt regarding the Company's ability to continue as a going concern" due to liquidity issues and $8.1 million in debt maturing in December. This persistent concern likely created significant investor uncertainty, contributing to a sharp sell-off from the stock's recent peak.

2. Market Correction After a Significant Rally. Capstone Green Energy's stock had experienced a "recent 300% rally" by October 15, 2025, reaching an all-time high of $3.10 on November 18, 2025. Such a rapid increase often precedes a significant market correction as investors realize gains or re-evaluate the company's valuation, especially given its speculative nature.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAPS Return127%-49%114%-86%-57%-63%-94%
Peers Return16%46%-28%66%11%3%132%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAPS Win Rate33%17%25%0%8%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%73%35%65%58%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAPS Max Drawdown0%-82%0%-86%-57%-67% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-3%-40%-3%-7%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCAPSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven621.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven110 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-88.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven733.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven56 days120 days

Compare to JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP


In The Past

Capstone's stock fell -86.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/20/2022. A -86.1% loss requires a 621.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Capstone (CAPS)

Better Bets than Capstone (CAPS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Capstone

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CAPSJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameCapstone James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
Mkt Price0.8319.74121.36292.59615.87224.01172.69
Mkt Cap0.08.581.638.737.17.222.8
Rev LTM433,78636,9017,8827,2962,3025,541
Op Inc LTM-27945,1081,5851,7395851,189
FCF LTM14292,6051,0551,007244718
FCF 3Y Avg0329-828764376376
CFO LTM18255,4401,7101,8425241,267
CFO 3Y Avg0793-1,5391,524565793

Growth & Margins

CAPSJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameCapstone James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.0%-4.7%4.3%6.5%16.5%1.5%2.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.2%0.2%5.7%3.2%6.1%4.1%3.7%
Rev Chg Q-0.3%-9.3%5.3%14.4%12.4%2.5%3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%-2.4%1.5%3.8%2.9%0.7%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM-3.7%21.0%13.8%20.1%23.8%25.4%20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.5%22.1%12.9%18.4%29.5%27.1%20.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-1.2%0.1%0.8%0.7%-0.5%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM2.2%21.8%14.7%21.7%25.2%22.8%21.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.9%20.7%-20.1%22.5%25.0%20.7%
FCF/Rev LTM2.1%11.3%7.1%13.4%13.8%10.6%11.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.6%8.5%-10.8%11.2%16.7%10.8%

Valuation

CAPSJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameCapstone James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
Mkt Cap0.08.581.638.737.17.222.8
P/S0.23.12.25.25.23.33.2
P/EBIT-6.020.615.324.621.712.317.9
P/E-2.834.923.336.333.016.828.2
P/CFO10.114.014.823.820.614.414.6
Total Yield-35.9%2.9%4.6%3.4%3.0%6.2%3.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.3%0.6%0.0%0.2%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.1%2.7%-2.5%2.4%5.1%2.7%
D/E2.10.20.30.10.20.20.2
Net D/E2.10.20.20.10.20.20.2

Returns

CAPSJHXCRHVMCMLMEXPMedian
NameCapstone James Ha.CRH Vulcan M.Martin M.Eagle Ma. 
1M Rtn-18.4%-3.5%2.9%1.4%-0.4%8.8%0.5%
3M Rtn-28.9%1.8%8.8%1.7%0.9%0.1%1.3%
6M Rtn-56.2%-22.8%34.4%10.3%12.4%11.7%11.0%
12M Rtn-74.0%-46.1%20.1%2.9%5.2%-25.6%-11.4%
3Y Rtn-97.8%-6.0%233.2%62.3%71.4%66.5%64.4%
1M Excs Rtn-18.4%-3.4%2.9%1.4%-0.4%8.9%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-32.3%-4.3%3.8%-5.1%-5.7%-8.9%-5.4%
6M Excs Rtn-70.9%-37.5%19.7%-4.4%-2.4%-3.0%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn-87.5%-60.4%6.9%-11.2%-10.2%-40.7%-26.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-170.6%-70.7%160.4%-6.2%2.0%-1.3%-3.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity275,425
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-20.2%
Average Daily Volume304,997
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity5,406,305
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025815202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
6302019813201910-Q 6/30/2019
3312019513201910-Q 3/31/2019
12312018322201910-K 12/31/2018
93020181106201810-Q 9/30/2018
6302018813201810-Q 6/30/2018
3312018511201810-Q 3/31/2018
12312017228201810-K 12/31/2017
93020171113201710-Q 9/30/2017
6302017814201710-Q 6/30/2017
3312017504201710-Q 3/31/2017
12312016315201710-K 12/31/2016
93020161110201610-Q 9/30/2016
6302016729201610-Q 6/30/2016