Capstone (CAPS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.8 | Market Cap: $4.3 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
Capstone (CAPS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.8Market Cap: $4.3 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -135%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Distributed Energy Resources, Grid Automation, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.7% | |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 205% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2751% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 162% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Distributed Energy Resources, Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -135%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 205% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2751% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 162% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CAPS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Capstone Green Energy (CGEH, formerly CAPS) experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping by approximately 39.35% from an all-time high of $3.10 on November 18, 2025, to $1.85 by November 21, 2025. This substantial movement, occurring within the requested timeframe, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Lingering Going Concern Doubts and Debt Obligations. An article on October 15, 2025, highlighted "substantial doubt regarding the Company's ability to continue as a going concern" due to liquidity issues and $8.1 million in debt maturing in December. This persistent concern likely created significant investor uncertainty, contributing to a sharp sell-off from the stock's recent peak.
2. Market Correction After a Significant Rally. Capstone Green Energy's stock had experienced a "recent 300% rally" by October 15, 2025, reaching an all-time high of $3.10 on November 18, 2025. Such a rapid increase often precedes a significant market correction as investors realize gains or re-evaluate the company's valuation, especially given its speculative nature.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAPS Return | 127% | -49% | 114% | -86% | -57% | -63% | -94% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 46% | -28% | 66% | 11% | 3% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAPS Win Rate | 33% | 17% | 25% | 0% | 8% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 73% | 35% | 65% | 58% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAPS Max Drawdown | 0% | -82% | 0% | -86% | -57% | -67% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -3% | -40% | -3% | -7% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 621.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -88.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 733.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 120 days |
Compare to JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP
In The Past
Capstone's stock fell -86.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/20/2022. A -86.1% loss requires a 621.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CAPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Capstone
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 172.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,541 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,189 |
| FCF LTM | 718 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 376 |
| CFO LTM | 1,267 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 793 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.9 |
| P/E | 28.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302019 | 8132019 | 10-Q 6/30/2019 |
| 3312019 | 5132019 | 10-Q 3/31/2019 |
| 12312018 | 3222019 | 10-K 12/31/2018 |
| 9302018 | 11062018 | 10-Q 9/30/2018 |
| 6302018 | 8132018 | 10-Q 6/30/2018 |
| 3312018 | 5112018 | 10-Q 3/31/2018 |
| 12312017 | 2282018 | 10-K 12/31/2017 |
| 9302017 | 11132017 | 10-Q 9/30/2017 |
| 6302017 | 8142017 | 10-Q 6/30/2017 |
| 3312017 | 5042017 | 10-Q 3/31/2017 |
| 12312016 | 3152017 | 10-K 12/31/2016 |
| 9302016 | 11102016 | 10-Q 9/30/2016 |
| 6302016 | 7292016 | 10-Q 6/30/2016 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |