Caris Life Sciences (CAI)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $20.95 | Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Caris Life Sciences (CAI)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $20.95Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 97% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -99%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% | Key risksCAI key risks include [1] its history of persistent net losses and high cash burn, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 97% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -99%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% |
| Key risksCAI key risks include [1] its history of persistent net losses and high cash burn, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Continued Net Losses Despite Strong Revenue Growth.
Despite reporting a significant 97% increase in total revenue to $812.0 million for the full year ended December 31, 2025, Caris Life Sciences still reported a net loss of $68.1 million for the same period. While the company achieved a net income of $82.0 million in Q4 2025, the overall annual unprofitability suggests that the robust top-line growth has not yet translated into sustained positive earnings, which may have contributed to investor caution.
2. Anticipated Increase in Operating Expenses for Future Investments.
Management's outlook for 2026 indicates a planned, more significant rise in operating expenses to support investment-heavy growth, particularly in scaling its early detection capacity and commercial infrastructure. While these investments are strategic for long-term growth, the expectation of higher expenses suggests continued pressure on short-term profitability, potentially dampening investor sentiment looking for immediate earnings improvements.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.3% change in CAI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.98 | 20.95 | -22.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 812 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 255 | 283 | -9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAI | -22.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.5% | 30.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.7% change in CAI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.25 | 20.95 | -30.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 812 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 255 | 283 | -9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAI | -30.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.6% | 21.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAI | -62.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 2.6% | 26.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.5% | 26.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAI Return | 79% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -52% | -25% | -35% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 32% | 41% | -1% | 2% | 10% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAI Win Rate | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAI Max Drawdown | -3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -58% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | 0% | -2% | -3% | -23% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRTX, ALPS, DFTX, EIKN, GENB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
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nullIn The Past
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About Caris Life Sciences (CAI)
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David Dean Halbert, Chairman, Founder and CEO- Mr. Halbert is a proven leader with over 40 years of experience across the energy, financial, and healthcare industries.
- He founded AdvancePCS® in 1987, a pharmacy benefits management company, serving as Chairman and CEO until its sale to CareMark® in 2004 for $7.5 billion. Under his leadership, AdvancePCS grew into a publicly traded, Fortune® 250 corporation with over $15 billion in annual revenue and returned 31 times its initial public offering (IPO) value.
- He also grew Caris Diagnostics, which was sold to Miraca Life Sciences® in 2011 for $725 million.
- Mr. Halbert acquired Molecular Profiling Institute (MPI) in 2008, which became Caris Life Sciences.
- Mr. Power joined Caris Life Sciences in 2011 and has progressively held positions with increasing responsibility.
- He oversees finance, accounting, and audit operations, and provides strategic financial guidance for corporate operations and functions.
- Prior to joining Caris, Mr. Power worked within the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) assurance practice in Ireland, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
- He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and a fellow of Chartered Accountants Ireland, holding a degree in finance and accounting from Waterford Institute of Technology.
- Dr. Spetzler holds a PhD in mathematics and molecular cellular biology.
- Dr. Sledge serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer for Caris Life Sciences.
- Mr. Harmon serves as the Chief Operations Officer for Caris Life Sciences.
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The background information provided describes CAI International, Inc., a transportation finance and logistics company. However, the request specifically asks for risks related to "Caris Life Sciences (symbol: CAI)". Publicly available information confirms that Caris Life Sciences currently trades under the symbol CAI on NASDAQ. Therefore, the provided background is not consistent with the company for which risks are requested. As a precision medicine company utilizing AI and molecular profiling, Caris Life Sciences faces distinct risks compared to a transportation finance company. Key risks for Caris Life Sciences include:- Competition and Market Acceptance of its Technology: Caris Life Sciences operates in the highly competitive and rapidly evolving field of precision medicine and molecular diagnostics. The company's success depends on the market acceptance and adoption of its proprietary molecular profiling platform and AI-driven solutions by healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, and patients. Intense competition from other diagnostic companies, large pharmaceutical firms, and academic institutions developing similar technologies could limit its growth and market share.
- Regulatory and Reimbursement Risks: The diagnostic and precision medicine industry is subject to extensive government regulation, including those from the FDA in the United States. Changes in regulatory requirements, delays in obtaining necessary approvals for new tests or platforms, or adverse regulatory decisions could significantly impact Caris Life Sciences' operations and product launches. Furthermore, securing adequate reimbursement from insurance providers and government programs for its advanced diagnostic tests is crucial for commercial success. Unfavorable changes in reimbursement policies or pricing pressures could negatively affect revenue and profitability.
- Reliance on Technology and Data Security: As an AI TechBio company, Caris Life Sciences heavily relies on its sophisticated technology, proprietary algorithms, and extensive genomic and molecular data. Risks include the potential for technological failures, cybersecurity breaches compromising sensitive patient data, or intellectual property infringement. Maintaining the integrity, security, and proprietary nature of its data and technology is paramount to its business model and competitive advantage.
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Caris Life Sciences (NASDAQ: CAI) is poised for substantial revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key initiatives and market trends. The company's forward guidance and recent earnings commentaries highlight a robust strategy focused on expanding its core services, launching innovative new products, and enhancing its commercial reach.
Here are the primary expected drivers of future revenue growth for Caris Life Sciences:
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Expansion of Molecular Profiling Services: Caris Life Sciences anticipates continued strong growth in its molecular profiling services, particularly within its therapy selection segment. The company projects molecular profiling revenue to grow approximately 21% to 22% in 2026, or an estimated 26% to 28% excluding prior year adjustments. This growth is expected to be fueled by an approximate 20% year-over-year increase in clinical therapy selection volume. Additionally, improvements in average sales prices (ASPs) for both tissue and blood-based testing platforms are contributing to this expansion.
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Launch and Adoption of Caris Detect: A significant driver of future revenue is the planned launch of Caris Detect, a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test, in the first half of 2026. This new product is considered a major market opportunity with the potential to significantly impact cancer mortality rates. Interim results from the ACHIEVE-1 study support its upcoming launch, indicating promising clinical performance.
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Aggressive Commercial Expansion and Sales Force Growth: To support the uptake of its existing and new products, Caris Life Sciences plans to aggressively invest in expanding its commercial organization. This includes plans to increase its sales force by approximately 20% to 25% to around 300 representatives in 2026. This strategic investment aims to drive greater adoption and market penetration of its comprehensive molecular profiling platform.
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Growth in Pharmaceutical Research and Development (Pharma R&D) Services: While molecular profiling remains the core, the company also expects a recovery and growth in its pharmaceutical research and development services. For 2026, Pharma R&D services revenue is expected to be in the range of $75 million to $85 million. Collaborations, such as the announced partnership with Genentech for novel therapeutic target discovery, underscore the potential in this segment.
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Leveraging AI TechBio Platform and Data Set: Caris Life Sciences positions itself as a next-generation AI TechBio company. Its extensive molecular data set, which has surpassed 1 million genomic profiles, serves as a valuable clinical genomic resource. This advanced platform, combining whole exome and whole transcriptome sequencing with AI and machine learning, is expected to attract more customers and strategic partnerships, fueling further growth in both its diagnostic and R&D offerings.
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Share Issuance
- Caris Life Sciences completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 18, 2025, listing on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol "CAI".
- The company priced its IPO at $21.00 per share, selling 23,529,412 shares of common stock and raising over $494.1 million.
- Caris Life Sciences granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 3,529,411 shares of common stock at the initial public offering price.
Inbound Investments
- In May 2021, Caris Life Sciences received an $830 million growth equity investment, which gave the company a post-money valuation of $7.83 billion.
- This 2021 investment round was led by Sixth Street, with significant participation from T. Rowe Price Associates Inc., Silver Lake, Fidelity Management & Research Co., and Coatue Management LLC.
- In April 2025, Caris Life Sciences closed a $168 million growth capital funding round, led by Braidwell LP, with participation from new investors Perceptive Advisors, Woodline, and Ghisallo, among others.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2026, Caris Life Sciences anticipates capital expenditures to increase to $60 million.
- The primary focus of these expected capital expenditures in 2026 is for early detection capacity, including the purchase of additional NovaSeq X machines for their new Assure assay and early detection initiatives.
- As of December 31, 2025, Caris Life Sciences had over $800 million in cash on hand, providing strategic flexibility for ongoing investments in its technology platform for new products and the development of new channels like Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED).
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PGNY | Progyny | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.8 |
| Rev LTM | 812 |
| Op Inc LTM | 45 |
| FCF LTM | 67 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 870 |
| CFO LTM | 83 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,067 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 52.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 67.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 28.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.8 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| P/EBIT | 24.1 |
| P/E | 28.3 |
| P/CFO | 30.8 |
| Total Yield | 1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -68.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $20.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -62.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $24.47 | $24.47 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.4% | -14.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.1% | 58.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Upside Capture | 124.30 | 97.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.5% | 14.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.03 | 1.95 | 1.69 | 1.19 | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| Up Beta | 4.86 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 0.94 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Down Beta | 1.64 | 1.47 | 1.38 | 1.02 | -0.28 | -0.12 |
| Up Capture | 233% | 146% | 74% | 65% | 48% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 61 | 90 | 90 |
| Down Capture | 176% | 230% | 211% | 163% | 149% | 92% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 34 | 63 | 104 | 104 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAI | -24.7% | 58.6% | -0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.5% | 16.0% | 0.38 | 26.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 25.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | -1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 22.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 16.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAI | -0.7% | 61.0% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.5% | 14.6% | 0.26 | 11.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 10.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 4.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 6.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 2.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAI | 17.2% | 58.6% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.5% | 16.5% | 0.47 | 27.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 35.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | -1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 19.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 27.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.4% |
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Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.00 Bil | 1.01 Bil | 1.02 Bil | 39.3% | Higher New | Actual: 725.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 23.0% | 24.5% | 26.0% | -67.8% | -51.5% | Lower New | Actual: 76.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Clinical therapy selection volume growth | 20.0% | -7.0% | -1.5% | Lower New | Actual: 21.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Molecular profiling revenue growth | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | ||||
| 2026 Pharma & research revenue | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Operating Expenses | 590.00 Mil | 592.50 Mil | 595.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 720.00 Mil | 725.00 Mil | 730.00 Mil | 6.6% | Raised | Guidance: 680.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 75.0% | 76.0% | 77.0% | 16.9% | 11.0% | Raised | Guidance: 65.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Clinical therapy selection volume growth | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 7.5% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 20.0% for 2025 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Power, Luke Thomas | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 26.58 | 62,250 | 1,654,461 | 2,646,367 | Form |
| 2 | Denton, John Russel | See Remarks | Trust | Buy | 11102025 | 24.09 | 4,184 | 100,793 | 221,243 | Form |
| 3 | Spetzler, David Baxley | President | Direct | Buy | 11072025 | 23.85 | 400 | 9,540 | 10,989,531 | Form |
| 4 | Denton, John Russel | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 6232025 | 21.00 | 7,500 | 157,500 | 2,595,411 | Form |
| 5 | Brille, Brian J | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 6232025 | 21.00 | 30,000 | 630,000 | 3,410,988 | Form |
Industry Resources
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