Tearsheet

Blaize Holdings Inc (BZAI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.29 | Market Cap: $239.5 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Blaize Holdings Inc (BZAI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.29
Market Cap: $239.5 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1518%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Edge AI, AI Chips, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 141x
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -610%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -689%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 149%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Edge AI, AI Chips, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1518%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 141x
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -610%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -689%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 149%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BZAI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Blaize Holdings Inc (BZAI) experienced an approximate -37% stock movement, dropping from about $3.77 on August 29, 2025, to $2.25 on December 3, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this decline:

1. Significant Decline in Gross Margin: Blaize reported Q3 2025 financial results on November 13, 2025, where, despite a 499% sequential revenue increase to $11.9 million, the GAAP gross margin significantly fell to 15% from 59% in Q2 2025. This substantial decrease was attributed to early Starshine systems utilizing third-party GPUs, with expectations for improvement as systems migrate to Blaize's proprietary GSP cards over time.

2. Sustained Net Losses and High Cash Burn: The company continued to report substantial losses, with a GAAP net loss of $26.3 million in Q3 2025 and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.1 million. Concerns over a high cash burn rate and the significant investments required for research and development, as well as market expansion, likely raised investor apprehension about the company's long-term path to profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BZAI Return---6%40%-86%-79%
Peers Return13%-2%-7%5%55%836%1483%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BZAI Win Rate--64%92%92%40% 
Peers Win Rate13%10%9%30%44%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BZAI Max Drawdown----0%-0%-87% 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-4%-8%-15%-8%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBZAIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-1.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days464 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Blaize Holdings Inc's stock fell -1.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/2/2023. A -1.6% loss requires a 1.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Blaize Holdings Inc (BZAI)

Better Bets than Blaize Holdings Inc (BZAI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BZAI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Blaize Holdings Inc

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BZAIADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameBlaize H.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price2.25307.241.292.223.427.562.83
Mkt Cap0.265.40.1---0.2
Rev LTM26,60527-21,02627
Op Inc LTM-341,5151--0651
FCF LTM-151,8471--255128
FCF 3Y Avg-1,704---216960
CFO LTM-141,9254--310157
CFO 3Y Avg-1,775---2711,023

Growth & Margins

BZAIADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameBlaize H.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM205.6%13.8%29.7%--10.6%21.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.7%---10.2%11.0%
Rev Chg Q788.8%17.1%86.2%--12.0%51.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM384.1%4.1%19.3%--2.9%11.7%
Op Mgn LTM-1,518.2%22.9%5.0%--3.8%6.3%5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.5%---6.9%14.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3,475.3%0.8%-0.1%---0.1%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-609.7%29.1%13.5%--30.2%21.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-30.7%---29.0%29.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-689.4%28.0%4.9%--24.9%14.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-29.5%---23.1%26.3%

Valuation

BZAIADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameBlaize H.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap0.265.40.1---0.2
P/S140.610.01.8---10.0
P/EBIT-9.646.724.6---24.6
P/E-2.063.235.8---35.8
P/CFO-23.134.313.5---13.5
Total Yield-49.0%1.6%2.8%---1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.3%----3.3%
D/E0.00.00.0---0.0
Net D/E-0.10.0-0.2----0.1

Returns

BZAIADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameBlaize H.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn-40.9%1.2%-52.2%-12.3%-3.1%-13.3%-12.8%
3M Rtn-29.5%-3.2%-53.8%-20.1%-14.5%-64.8%-24.8%
6M Rtn-9.3%3.0%104.0%-30.6%-14.5%-64.8%-11.9%
12M Rtn-80.5%2.8%--27.5%4,785.7%-64.8%-27.5%
3Y Rtn-77.9%52.8%--3,320.0%-64.8%-6.0%
1M Excs Rtn-40.9%1.2%-52.2%-12.2%-3.1%-13.3%-12.7%
3M Excs Rtn-33.2%-9.3%-59.4%-23.1%-19.8%-70.2%-28.2%
6M Excs Rtn-24.0%-11.7%89.3%-45.3%-29.2%-79.6%-26.6%
12M Excs Rtn-93.9%-8.3%--45.7%4,643.1%-78.4%-45.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-150.7%-15.5%--3,299.3%-137.6%-76.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,290,663
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025130.7%
Average Daily Volume2,838,621
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.57
Basic Shares Quantity104,588,373
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024415202510-K 12/31/2024
63020249092024S-4/A 6/30/2024
33120247192024S-4 3/31/2024
1231202312022024424B3 12/31/2023