Tearsheet

TopBuild (BLD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $419.08 | Market Cap: $11.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

TopBuild (BLD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $419.08
Market Cap: $11.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
  Key risks
BLD key risks include [1] its high exposure to the cyclical residential construction market, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, and Resource Efficiency Solutions.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, and Resource Efficiency Solutions.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
6 Key risks
BLD key risks include [1] its high exposure to the cyclical residential construction market, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BLD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The -0.4% movement in TopBuild (BLD) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to a few key factors that led to slight negative pressure on the stock during this period.

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Market Reaction: Despite TopBuild exceeding analysts' consensus estimates for both earnings per share ($5.36 vs. $5.22) and revenue ($1.39 billion vs. $1.38 billion) on November 4, 2025, the stock experienced a 0.9% decline on the day of the announcement. This negative reaction was likely influenced by a year-over-year decrease in EPS (from $5.68 in Q3 2024 to $5.36 in Q3 2025), a 6.7% decline in volume, and a 100-basis-point drop in adjusted EBITDA margin compared to the previous year, suggesting underlying concerns among investors about operational performance and future market conditions despite beating estimates.

2. Investor Day's Conservative Outlook: TopBuild's Investor Day on December 9, 2025, resulted in a notable negative market reaction, with the stock declining by 3.27%. While management reiterated its fiscal year 2025 guidance and provided a long-term financial outlook through 2030, the market's response indicates that the "relatively conservative roadmap" to its 2030 targets or other elements of the strategic overview might have underwhelmed investor expectations.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BLD Return79%50%-43%139%-17%38%316%
Peers Return31%58%-17%97%5%-4%238%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BLD Win Rate67%67%33%75%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%69%46%65%60%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BLD Max Drawdown-43%-2%-49%0%-17%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-4%-30%-3%-9%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IBP, OC, BLDR, CSL. See BLD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBLDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven109.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven72 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven105.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven221 days120 days

Compare to PLPC, SLND, DHI, LEN, PHM


In The Past

TopBuild's stock fell -49.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -49.4% loss requires a 97.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TopBuild (BLD)

Better Bets than TopBuild (BLD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
BLD_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025BLDTopBuildDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
60.0%51.5%-0.8%
BLD_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022BLDTopBuildDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%59.1%-15.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
BLD_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025BLDTopBuildDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
60.0%51.5%-0.8%
BLD_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022BLDTopBuildDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%59.1%-15.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TopBuild

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BLDIBPOCBLDRCSLMedian
NameTopBuild Installe.Owens-Co.Builders.Carlisle. 
Mkt Price419.03258.94114.15103.51330.39258.94
Mkt Cap11.77.09.511.514.011.5
Rev LTM5,2362,97411,65915,9445,0155,236
Op Inc LTM8303761,8261,2281,0361,036
FCF LTM7913041,1081,189958958
FCF 3Y Avg7232831,2011,953987987
CFO LTM8463811,8721,5771,0861,086
CFO 3Y Avg7883551,8272,3751,1201,120

Growth & Margins

BLDIBPOCBLDRCSLMedian
NameTopBuild Installe.Owens-Co.Builders.Carlisle. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.3%2.1%21.7%-6.4%0.1%0.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.0%5.7%7.1%-11.0%-0.7%3.0%
Rev Chg Q1.4%2.3%-2.9%-5.0%1.0%1.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%0.6%-0.7%-1.4%0.3%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM15.8%12.6%15.7%7.7%20.7%15.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.4%13.0%15.9%11.1%21.5%15.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.1%-0.0%-1.0%-0.5%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM16.2%12.8%16.1%9.9%21.7%16.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.1%12.3%17.9%13.6%23.1%15.1%
FCF/Rev LTM15.1%10.2%9.5%7.5%19.1%10.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.8%9.9%11.8%11.1%20.3%11.8%

Valuation

BLDIBPOCBLDRCSLMedian
NameTopBuild Installe.Owens-Co.Builders.Carlisle. 
Mkt Cap11.77.09.511.514.011.5
P/S2.12.21.00.82.82.1
P/EBIT13.017.726.511.013.413.4
P/E19.326.1-24.517.818.018.0
P/CFO12.917.56.38.512.912.9
Total Yield5.2%5.1%-2.2%5.6%6.8%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.3%1.9%0.0%1.3%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.2%5.4%9.2%11.7%6.6%7.2%
D/E0.30.10.50.40.20.3
Net D/E0.20.10.50.40.10.2

Returns

BLDIBPOCBLDRCSLMedian
NameTopBuild Installe.Owens-Co.Builders.Carlisle. 
1M Rtn3.8%5.9%15.2%4.1%10.1%5.9%
3M Rtn1.6%0.2%-21.4%-19.9%-0.7%-0.7%
6M Rtn40.6%58.7%-11.7%-3.1%-6.5%-3.1%
12M Rtn23.9%37.1%-36.5%-35.4%-17.4%-17.4%
3Y Rtn159.9%196.1%32.1%53.3%42.9%53.3%
1M Excs Rtn3.1%5.2%14.4%3.4%9.3%5.2%
3M Excs Rtn-1.3%-3.0%-23.6%-21.1%-1.3%-3.0%
6M Excs Rtn28.2%46.3%-24.1%-15.5%-18.9%-15.5%
12M Excs Rtn10.6%21.6%-50.3%-48.9%-31.5%-31.5%
3Y Excs Rtn94.3%138.8%-41.5%-12.7%-32.9%-12.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Installation3,1882,9702,3781,9431,907
Specialty Distribution2,2682,2781,287926862
Elimination of intercompany net sales-262-239-179-152-145
Total5,1955,0093,4862,7182,624


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Installation644549384295253
Specialty Distribution33132616911590
Elimination of intercompany net sales-44-40-30-24-24
General corporate expense, net-52-38-47-31-30
Total879797476355290


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Installation2,2082,1292,0241,7221,669
Specialty Distribution2,0602,1762,081731716
Corporate895302153363219
Total5,1634,6074,2592,8152,604


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,595,361
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.2%
Average Daily Volume223,009
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.15
Basic Shares Quantity28,019,746
Short % of Basic Shares5.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-0.9%2.6%4.8%
8/5/20255.4%7.2%7.8%
5/6/2025-2.3%6.9%-1.0%
2/25/20252.7%-2.0%3.7%
11/5/20244.3%2.3%6.6%
8/6/2024-7.1%-12.0%-13.2%
2/28/2024-5.2%-2.7%6.1%
10/31/20234.3%20.2%34.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101012
# Negative131311
Median Positive4.2%7.0%6.4%
Median Negative-3.1%-4.4%-4.2%
Max Positive10.2%20.2%41.9%
Max Negative-7.6%-16.5%-38.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021