BIO-key International (BKYI)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $0.6853 | Market Cap: $4.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
BIO-key International (BKYI)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $0.6853Market Cap: $4.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -125%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.7 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Identity Management. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -61% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -28% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -94% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 145% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Identity Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -125%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.7 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -61% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -28% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -94% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 145% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BKYI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. BIO-key International (BKYI) reported a Q3 2025 earnings miss on November 14, 2025. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.15, which was below analysts' expectations of -$0.12. Additionally, quarterly revenue came in at $1.55 million, missing analyst estimates of $1.80 million and representing a decrease from $2.14 million in Q3 2024.
2. The company experienced an increased net loss in Q3 2025. BIO-key reported a net loss of $964,849 for the third quarter of 2025, an increase compared to a net loss of $738,959 in the same period last year.
3. Bearish technical signals and forecasts indicate a negative sentiment for the stock. As of December 2025, several analyses highlighted a bearish moving average trend with multiple negative signals for BKYI. Technical indicators and expert forecasts suggested a continued downtrend and sell signals for the stock.
4. Significant stock volatility and price declines were observed in the short term. The stock price decreased by -5.08% on December 11, 2025, and had declined in 6 of the preceding 10 days, resulting in a total change of -15.93% during that period. A sell signal from a pivot top point on November 18, 2025, preceded a -33.46% fall.
5. The exercise of warrants led to an increase in outstanding shares. On October 27, 2025, BIO-key secured $3.1 million in gross proceeds from a warrant exercise agreement. However, this transaction involved the issuance of 3,091,668 shares, which can lead to dilution of existing shareholders.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKYI Return | -12% | -37% | -74% | -72% | -43% | -60% | -99% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -41% | 8% | 19% | 4% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKYI Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 50% | 30% | 45% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKYI Max Drawdown | -27% | -39% | -76% | -74% | -80% | -63% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -56% | -25% | -21% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OKTA, YOU, OSPN, MITK, AWRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKYI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3231.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 227.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -88.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 747.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 700.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1631 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT
In The Past
BIO-key International's stock fell -97.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -97.0% loss requires a 3231.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is BIO-key International Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BKYI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 22.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 22.9% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BIO-key International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 211 |
| Op Inc LTM | 34 |
| FCF LTM | 53 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 31 |
| CFO LTM | 57 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 36 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 14.1 |
| P/CFO | 9.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.9% |
Returns Analyses
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |