BigBear.ai (BBAI)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $3.71 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
BigBear.ai (BBAI)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $3.71Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -65% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 102% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% Key risksBBAI key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on volatile government contracts leading to revenue disruption, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -65% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 102% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
| Key risksBBAI key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on volatile government contracts leading to revenue disruption, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Revenue Miss and Decline in Q4 2025. BigBear.ai reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $27.3 million, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates, which ranged from approximately $33.3 million to $34.48 million. This represented a substantial 37.7% to 38% year-over-year revenue decline, primarily attributed to lower volumes from its U.S. Army programs. For the full year 2025, the company posted $128 million in revenue, an 18% year-over-year decrease from 2024, missing earlier projections.
2. Compression of Gross Margins and Increased Operating Expenses. In conjunction with the revenue shortfall, BigBear.ai experienced a significant compression in its gross margin, which fell to 20.4% in Q4 2025 from 37.4% in the prior-year quarter. This decline was linked to lower volumes in Army programs and the absence of higher-margin contracts. Simultaneously, operating expenses rose, with Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses increasing 15.8% to $25.7 million and Research and Development (R&D) expenses surging 108.7% to $4.8 million year-over-year in Q4 2025. The company also reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of -$10.3 million in Q4 2025, compared to a positive $2 million in the same quarter last year.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.5% change in BBAI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.40 | 3.70 | -31.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 144 | 128 | -11.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 14.9 | 12.7 | -14.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 397 | 439 | -9.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -31.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 52.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 11.3% | 59.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.3% change in BBAI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.52 | 3.70 | -43.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 153 | 128 | -16.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 13.7 | 12.7 | -7.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 321 | 439 | -27.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -43.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 50.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.9% | 53.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.4% change in BBAI stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 180.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.86 | 3.70 | 29.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 158 | 128 | -19.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.5 | 12.7 | 180.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 251 | 439 | -42.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | 29.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 42.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 55.9% | 45.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.6% change in BBAI stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 539.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.44 | 3.70 | 51.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 155 | 128 | -17.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 12.7 | 539.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 126 | 439 | -71.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | 51.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 116.4% | 34.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BBAI Return | -42% | -88% | 218% | 108% | 21% | -31% | -62% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 6% | 48% | 90% | 25% | -12% | 203% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BBAI Win Rate | 44% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 55% | 63% | 70% | 63% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BBAI Max Drawdown | -42% | -89% | 0% | -44% | -46% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -22% | -12% | -3% | -24% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PLTR, LDOS, BAH, CACI, PSN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BBAI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1905.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to PLTR, LDOS, BAH, CACI, PSN
In The Past
BigBear.ai's stock fell -95.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -95.0% loss requires a 1905.4% gain to breakeven.
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About BigBear.ai (BBAI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Palantir, but for AI-powered strategic decision intelligence across diverse government and commercial sectors.
Like SAS or DataRobot, but specialized in providing AI-driven 'decision advantages' for complex government and commercial operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AI-powered Decision Support Analytics: Solutions that leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to provide actionable insights for enhanced decision-making across various sectors.
- Data Management & Curation: Services that enable customers to catalog, organize, and maintain high-quality data feeds for analytical readiness.
- Data Visualization & Automation: Tools and services designed to automate data processing and present complex data in clear, intuitive visual formats for better understanding.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BigBear.ai (BBAI) primarily sells its decision support analytics solutions to other organizations, specifically the U.S. federal government and, to a lesser extent, commercial enterprises. Substantially all of its revenue is derived from U.S. federal government customers.
Major Customers:
-
U.S. Department of Defense (DoD): This is a collective major customer, encompassing various branches and commands, including but not limited to:
- U.S. Air Force
- U.S. Army
- U.S. Navy
- U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM)
- Defense Logistics Agency (DLA)
- U.S. Intelligence Community: This includes agencies such as the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).
- Various U.S. Federal Civilian Agencies: BigBear.ai serves non-defense federal departments.
While BigBear.ai is expanding its reach into commercial markets (manufacturing, supply chain, logistics), specific major commercial customer companies are not publicly disclosed, and these segments currently represent a smaller portion of the company's overall revenue compared to its government contracts.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Kevin McAleenan
Chief Executive Officer and Director
Kevin McAleenan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of BigBear.ai and a member of its Board of Directors effective January 15, 2025. Prior to this, he served as President of BigBear.ai. He co-founded and led Pangiam as CEO and Chair of the Board, developing biometric and AI products for security applications, until its acquisition by BigBear.ai in 2024. McAleenan brings extensive experience from nearly two decades of leadership in the U.S. Government, including serving as Acting Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and as the first career civil servant appointed and confirmed as Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
Sean Ricker
Chief Financial Officer
Sean Ricker was appointed Chief Financial Officer of BigBear.ai effective October 14, 2025, having served as interim CFO since June 6, 2025. In this role, he leads the company's accounting, finance, and systems functions. Ricker has held several roles at BigBear.ai, including Chief Accounting Officer from August 2022 to June 2025 and Corporate Controller since April 2021. Before joining BigBear.ai, he served in accounting and reporting roles at Lockheed Martin Corporation and was a director at MorganFranklin Consulting.
Carl Napoletano
Chief Operating Officer
Carl Napoletano serves as the Chief Operating Officer of BigBear.ai.
Dan Jones
Chief Products Officer
Dan Jones is the Chief Products Officer at BigBear.ai, responsible for leading all product management, user experience, and engineering functions for the company's SaaS platform and software applications. He possesses over 20 years of product management experience, having held senior product and program management roles at companies such as Skytap, Nordstrom, Microsoft, IBM, and HP.
Carolyn Blankenship
General Counsel
Carolyn Blankenship is the General Counsel for BigBear.ai, providing strategic input for the company. She is also an Observer to the Intellectual Property Subcommittee of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI).
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Key Risks to BigBear.ai (BBAI)
The key risks to BigBear.ai's business include its significant revenue concentration and volatility in government contracts, ongoing profitability concerns coupled with execution challenges, and historical accounting issues leading to legal scrutiny and shareholder dilution.
The most significant risk to BigBear.ai stems from its substantial reliance on government contracts, particularly within the U.S. defense and intelligence sectors. This concentration exposes the company to considerable revenue volatility driven by factors such as unpredictable contract timing, governmental funding cycles, and potential changes in programs or budgets. For example, recent financial reports have indicated revenue pressure due to reduced volumes on certain U.S. Army programs, leading to sharp declines in quarterly revenues. Analysts have highlighted that this dependency creates operational and financial uncertainty, with past disruptions directly impacting revenue guidance.
Secondly, BigBear.ai faces ongoing profitability challenges and concerns regarding its execution capabilities. The company has a history of reporting losses and negative operating margins, continuing to invest heavily in technology development and business integrations, which can keep margins under pressure. Despite a growing backlog, there are doubts about the company's ability to consistently convert these contract awards into sustainable and substantial revenue growth, especially given past instances of failing to meet revenue targets and experiencing cost overruns on fixed-price government contracts.
Finally, BigBear.ai has encountered significant legal and accounting issues, accompanied by risks of shareholder dilution. The company previously had to restate financial statements for fiscal years 2021 and subsequent periods due to incorrect accounting treatment of convertible notes, which revealed a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting. These accounting irregularities have led to securities class action lawsuits. Furthermore, the company has faced shareholder dilution, with shares outstanding increasing significantly in recent years, a trend that could continue if further capital is needed for aggressive acquisition strategies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for BigBear.ai is the rapid advancement and increasing accessibility of powerful artificial intelligence models, particularly large language models (LLMs) and generative AI. These technologies are fundamentally changing how data is processed, analyzed, and leveraged for decision-making across all markets BigBear.ai serves.
As LLMs become more sophisticated and widely available, they offer capabilities to synthesize vast amounts of data, identify complex patterns, generate actionable insights, and automate aspects of decision support. This directly impacts BigBear.ai's core business of providing "decision support analytics solutions" by:
- Potentially Commoditizing Analytics: Organizations may increasingly leverage highly accessible, general-purpose AI models from cloud providers or open-source initiatives to build or customize their own decision-support tools, reducing reliance on specialized third-party providers.
- Creating New Standards for Insight Generation: The ability of generative AI to provide more dynamic, conversational, and context-aware insights could set new expectations for decision support, potentially making more traditional analytics solutions seem less competitive.
- Intensifying Competition from Platform Providers: Hyperscalers and major software vendors are aggressively integrating advanced AI capabilities into their ecosystems, offering comprehensive solutions that could outcompete standalone specialized analytics firms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BigBear.ai (BBAI) operates within several significant addressable markets for its AI-powered decision intelligence solutions. The global artificial intelligence (AI) in cybersecurity market was valued at approximately $25.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $93.75 billion by 2030, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4% between 2025 and 2030. In the realm of supply chain management, the global AI in supply chain market was estimated at $4.92 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach $7.19 billion in 2025, with an anticipated CAGR of 46.2%. More broadly, the overall artificial intelligence market is projected to reach $1.8 trillion globally by 2030. BigBear.ai specializes in providing predictive analytics and data-driven insights within this AI-powered decision intelligence sector, serving both government and commercial clients. The company's solutions are particularly pivotal in domains such as national security and defense, where its primary revenue source is the U.S. federal government, as well as in supply chain management and cybersecurity. BigBear.ai is also diversifying its AI portfolio to target border security and customs markets.AI Analysis | Feedback
BigBear.ai (BBAI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, including strategic acquisitions, international market expansion, and the continued pursuit of government and commercial opportunities leveraging its AI-powered solutions.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Integration of Advanced AI Platforms: A significant driver of future revenue growth for BigBear.ai is its strategic acquisitions, notably Ask Sage and CargoSeer. The acquisition of Ask Sage, a generative AI platform for secure distribution of AI models, is anticipated to deliver approximately $25 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in 2025, representing a sixfold increase from its 2024 ARR. CargoSeer adds AI-enabled cargo inspection capabilities. These acquisitions are seen as catalytic moves to accelerate growth and strengthen the company's position in national security, travel, and trade markets.
- International Expansion: BigBear.ai is actively pursuing expanded international operations, with a particular focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The company has highlighted a transformative partnership in the UAE aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of AI across various domains and applications, signaling this as a core part of its growth strategy for near-term revenue opportunities.
- Leveraging Government AI Acceleration and Expanding Commercial Market Presence: The company is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI and analytics solutions within both government and commercial sectors. BigBear.ai plans to aggressively pursue government contracts, particularly in national security markets, aligning with the U.S. Government's AI Acceleration Strategy. Concurrently, it aims to broaden its revenue streams by expanding into new commercial markets such as healthcare, finance, and energy, thereby reducing its dependency on government contracts.
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Share Repurchases
- BigBear.ai recorded treasury stock at cost of $57.35 million as of December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024.
Share Issuance
- BigBear.ai went public in December 2021 through a SPAC merger, issuing 8 million new shares and approximately 1.5 million shares to advisors.
- In 2025, the company raised $693 million in proceeds from at-the-market (ATM) equity facilities and warrants.
- In January 2026, BigBear.ai settled $125 million of its 2029 Convertible notes primarily by converting debt to equity, which is expected to result in the issuance of approximately 38 million shares of common stock.
Inbound Investments
- The SPAC merger in December 2021 facilitated capital infusion into the company through the issuance of shares.
- BigBear.ai secured $693 million of proceeds in 2025 through its ATM facilities and warrants.
- The company maintained a strong cash position, reporting $462 million in cash and investments at the end of 2025, and a record $715 million in cash and investments in the third quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- BigBear.ai acquired Pangiam in an all-stock acquisition in March 2025.
- The company completed the acquisition of Ask Sage in December 2025, marking it as the largest acquisition in BigBear.ai's history.
- In January 2026, BigBear.ai closed the acquisition of CargoSeer.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the purchases of property and equipment were $4.008 million in 2025 and $3.616 million in 2024.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures has been on ongoing investments in integration and expansion, product development, and go-to-market initiatives.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.5 |
| Rev LTM | 7,672 |
| Op Inc LTM | 933 |
| FCF LTM | 784 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 567 |
| CFO LTM | 866 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 643 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.5 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.0 |
| P/E | 17.3 |
| P/CFO | 11.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -22.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.70 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/05/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -58.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.77 | $5.64 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.9% | -34.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 83.8% | 102.5% |
| Downside Capture | 2.94 | 2.39 |
| Upside Capture | 209.47 | 332.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.2% | 42.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.85 | 2.93 | 2.77 | 3.53 | 2.25 | 2.56 |
| Up Beta | -1.44 | 6.38 | 3.58 | 3.55 | 2.03 | 1.70 |
| Down Beta | 1.80 | 1.55 | 1.15 | 1.65 | 1.21 | 1.98 |
| Up Capture | 155% | 165% | 277% | 603% | 1034% | 29148% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 115 | 330 |
| Down Capture | 215% | 302% | 305% | 267% | 171% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 71 | 136 | 400 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BBAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | 33.3% | 102.8% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 62.8% | 20.7% | 2.25 | 43.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 42.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | 14.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | 2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 9.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 31.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BBAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -16.9% | 165.1% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.5% | 24.8% | 0.67 | 14.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 13.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 3.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 11.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 13.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BBAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -9.0% | 164.8% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.2% | 24.4% | 0.87 | 14.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 13.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 3.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 11.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/2/2026 | -7.3% | 2.4% | -14.1% |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.1% | -2.5% | 18.0% |
| 8/11/2025 | -15.8% | -17.5% | -33.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.6% | -2.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/5/2024 | -9.7% | 3.4% | 62.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.3% | -12.1% | 13.6% |
| 3/7/2024 | -31.6% | -35.1% | -49.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | -4.5% | 20.5% | 5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.4% | 18.3% |
| Median Negative | -13.0% | -11.9% | -23.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 20.5% | 62.5% |
| Max Negative | -31.6% | -35.1% | -52.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 135.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 17.2% | Higher New | Actual: 128.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 125.00 Mil | 132.50 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 132.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Ask Sage Annual Recurring Revenue | 25.00 Mil | ||||||
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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