Tearsheet

BigBear.ai (BBAI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.07 | Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

BigBear.ai (BBAI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.07
Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -37%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 116%
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -18%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 102%
5  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%
6  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 139%
7  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -37%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 116%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -18%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 102%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 139%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BBAI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, BigBear.ai (BBAI) experienced a 20.3% stock movement, influenced by several key developments.

1. Strategic Shift to SaaS and Cost Reduction: BigBear.ai undertook a strategic shift in September 2025, consolidating its AI infrastructure division to redirect resources toward high-margin Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions. This move included a 20% reduction in research and development (R&D) expenses, aiming to streamline operations and enhance cash flow.

2. Key AI Partnerships and Defense Contracts: The company bolstered its presence in the defense sector through significant partnerships in late September and October 2025. This included a collaboration with SMX to support the US Navy's UNITAS 2025 maritime exercise, deploying AI-powered sensor fusion, and a partnership with Tsecond to integrate AI-powered edge infrastructure for battlefield applications.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BBAI Return---88%218%108%30%2%
Peers Return-19%7%-17%29%-24%-43%-60%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BBAI Win Rate-50%33%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate38%54%38%67%46%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BBAI Max Drawdown---89%0%-44%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-13%-28%-7%-31%-47% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBBAIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1905.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI


In The Past

BigBear.ai's stock fell -95.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -95.0% loss requires a 1905.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About BigBear.ai (BBAI)

Better Bets than BigBear.ai (BBAI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BBAI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BigBear.ai

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BBAIGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameBigBear..CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
Mkt Price6.1089.512.71---6.10
Mkt Cap2.019.60.3---2.0
Rev LTM15315,9136,174---6,174
Op Inc LTM-562,612131---131
FCF LTM-381,964302---302
FCF 3Y Avg-341,904376---376
CFO LTM-272,234367---367
CFO 3Y Avg-282,184425---425

Growth & Margins

BBAIGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameBigBear..CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
Rev Chg LTM3.5%8.4%-5.0%---3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.4%7.4%-3.7%---1.4%
Rev Chg Q-18.4%9.7%-0.1%----0.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.6%2.3%-0.0%----0.0%
Op Mgn LTM-36.7%16.4%2.1%---2.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-29.1%16.4%3.7%---3.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%0.1%-0.6%----0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-17.9%14.0%5.9%---5.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-17.9%14.6%6.5%---6.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-24.7%12.3%4.9%---4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-21.9%12.7%5.7%---5.7%

Valuation

BBAIGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameBigBear..CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
Mkt Cap2.019.60.3---2.0
P/S14.31.20.1---1.2
P/EBIT-5.28.3-0.6----0.6
P/E-4.811.8-0.5----0.5
P/CFO-79.98.81.8---1.8
Total Yield-20.6%8.5%-214.5%----20.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.7%8.5%31.5%---8.5%
D/E0.10.25.9---0.2
Net D/E-0.10.25.3---0.2

Returns

BBAIGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameBigBear..CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
1M Rtn-3.2%3.5%-15.8%----3.2%
3M Rtn24.5%-7.0%-28.2%----7.0%
6M Rtn43.2%-16.7%-45.7%----16.7%
12M Rtn115.5%-19.8%-67.3%----19.8%
3Y Rtn539.7%2.1%-80.1%---2.1%
1M Excs Rtn-3.1%3.5%-15.8%----3.1%
3M Excs Rtn18.4%-11.3%-35.0%----11.3%
6M Excs Rtn28.5%-31.5%-60.4%----31.5%
12M Excs Rtn152.8%-33.6%-81.9%----33.6%
3Y Excs Rtn437.7%-66.6%-151.3%----66.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity104,972,778
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202532.2%
Average Daily Volume97,721,918
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.07
Basic Shares Quantity320,591,204
Short % of Basic Shares32.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024325202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022331202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021
930202112232021S-1 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0HAYES DOROTHY D11192025Sell6.0822,000133,8701,436,973Form