Tearsheet

BigBear.ai (BBAI)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $6.765 | Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

BigBear.ai (BBAI)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $6.765
Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -67 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -46%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 102%
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -20%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 297%
5  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
6  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 137%
7  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -67 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -46%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 102%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -20%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 297%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 137%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BBAI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The approximate 34.5% movement in BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 8, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.

1. Better-than-Expected Q3 2025 Financial Results: The company announced strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, 2025, reporting revenue of $33.1 million, which surpassed analyst estimates. Furthermore, BigBear.ai posted a net income of $2.5 million for the quarter, a significant improvement from a net loss in the same period of 2024. These positive results helped fuel investor optimism and contributed to a stock rally.

2. Strategic Acquisition of Ask Sage: BigBear.ai entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a generative AI platform specifically designed for secure environments like defense and national security agencies. This acquisition is considered a transformative move, expected to significantly boost the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) by approximately $25 million in 2025, leading to increased investor confidence in its growth strategy.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BBAI Return---88%218%108%58%24%
Peers Return4%-8%6%48%90%36%291%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BBAI Win Rate-50%33%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate55%52%55%63%70%66% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BBAI Max Drawdown---89%0%-44%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-16%-22%-12%-3%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLTR, LDOS, BAH, CACI, PSN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBBAIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1905.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI


In The Past

BigBear.ai's stock fell -95.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -95.0% loss requires a 1905.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About BigBear.ai (BBAI)

Better Bets than BigBear.ai (BBAI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BBAI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.7%14.7%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.7%14.7%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BigBear.ai

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BBAIPLTRLDOSBAHCACIPSNMedian
NameBigBear..Palantir.Leidos Booz All.CACI Int.Parsons  
Mkt Price6.82181.76186.8288.01595.6566.65134.88
Mkt Cap2.7432.123.910.813.17.111.9
Rev LTM1443,89617,33211,7068,8596,4957,677
Op Inc LTM-678502,0411,106797411823
FCF LTM-421,7941,338819612383716
FCF 3Y Avg-351,0831,149641420398531
CFO LTM-351,8181,506910683438797
CFO 3Y Avg-291,1011,312728486444607

Growth & Margins

BBAIPLTRLDOSBAHCACIPSNMedian
NameBigBear..Palantir.Leidos Booz All.CACI Int.Parsons  
Rev Chg LTM-7.0%47.2%6.5%2.4%12.6%-0.2%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.8%29.3%6.9%10.0%11.9%17.9%11.0%
Rev Chg Q-20.1%62.8%6.7%-8.1%11.2%-10.4%-0.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.5%13.2%1.6%-2.1%2.7%-2.8%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM-46.2%21.8%11.8%9.5%9.0%6.3%9.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-32.2%12.4%10.3%8.7%8.7%6.2%8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-9.5%5.3%-0.1%-2.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.2%46.6%8.7%7.8%7.7%6.7%7.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-19.3%35.8%8.0%6.4%6.0%7.3%6.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-29.4%46.0%7.7%7.0%6.9%5.9%7.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-23.5%35.1%7.0%5.6%5.2%6.5%6.1%

Valuation

BBAIPLTRLDOSBAHCACIPSNMedian
NameBigBear..Palantir.Leidos Booz All.CACI Int.Parsons  
Mkt Cap2.7432.123.910.813.17.111.9
P/S18.8111.31.41.01.21.41.4
P/EBIT-6.7510.411.810.913.820.712.8
P/E-6.3395.917.214.821.736.919.5
P/CFO-77.4238.616.113.516.120.216.1
Total Yield-15.8%0.3%6.7%6.7%4.6%2.7%3.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.0%1.0%6.0%4.1%4.2%4.6%4.2%
D/E0.00.00.20.30.30.20.2
Net D/E-0.2-0.00.20.30.30.10.1

Returns

BBAIPLTRLDOSBAHCACIPSNMedian
NameBigBear..Palantir.Leidos Booz All.CACI Int.Parsons  
1M Rtn20.1%2.2%-5.2%0.6%1.1%-22.4%0.9%
3M Rtn36.9%18.7%4.6%-13.5%25.5%-11.9%11.7%
6M Rtn77.1%42.3%26.7%-13.3%33.7%-3.5%30.2%
12M Rtn101.8%138.1%15.7%-38.3%31.1%-32.0%23.4%
3Y Rtn633.4%2,452.8%77.8%-12.7%95.4%39.1%86.6%
1M Excs Rtn10.2%-4.4%-5.3%1.2%0.1%-20.7%-2.1%
3M Excs Rtn34.3%10.7%-1.1%-18.7%19.9%-16.9%4.8%
6M Excs Rtn62.6%27.8%12.2%-27.8%19.2%-18.0%15.7%
12M Excs Rtn127.4%142.6%1.5%-52.0%17.7%-43.2%9.6%
3Y Excs Rtn534.7%2,255.1%9.0%-81.2%22.3%-33.7%15.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity104,972,778
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202532.2%
Average Daily Volume97,721,918
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.07
Basic Shares Quantity396,589,354
Short % of Basic Shares26.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/20256.1%-2.5% 
8/11/2025-15.8%-17.5%-33.3%
5/1/20250.6%-2.7%18.3%
11/5/2024-9.7%3.4%62.5%
8/1/2024-4.3%-12.1%13.6%
3/7/2024-31.6%-35.1%-49.5%
11/7/2023-4.5%20.5%5.1%
8/8/2023-10.2%-9.0%-10.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive326
# Negative9106
Median Positive2.0%12.0%26.7%
Median Negative-15.8%-11.9%-33.3%
Max Positive6.1%20.5%62.5%
Max Negative-31.6%-35.1%-52.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024325202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022331202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0HAYES DOROTHY D11192025Sell6.0822,000133,8701,436,973Form