BigBear.ai (BBAI)
Market Price (6/18/2026): $3.92 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
BigBear.ai (BBAI)
Market Price (6/18/2026): $3.92Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -87 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -68% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% Key risksBBAI key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on volatile government contracts leading to revenue disruption, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -87 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
| Key risksBBAI key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on volatile government contracts leading to revenue disruption, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Financial Performance and Outlook
BigBear.ai experienced a mixed financial performance during the period, contributing to the stock's stability. While fiscal Q4 2025 (reported on March 2, 2026) saw a significant 38% decrease in revenue to $27.3 million due to lower volume on Army programs and a drop in gross margin to 20.3% from 37.4% in the prior year, the company exceeded EPS estimates. Subsequently, fiscal Q1 2026 (reported on May 4, 2026) showed essentially flat revenue at $34.4 million compared to Q1 2025, but a notable 50% beat on EPS, reporting a loss of -$0.04 against an expected -$0.08. Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million, signaling confidence in future performance despite past revenue challenges.
2. Strategic Growth Initiatives and Strong Backlog
The company's strategic initiatives, including recent acquisitions and a growing backlog, provided underlying support to the stock. BigBear.ai closed acquisitions of Ask Sage (December 2025) and CargoSeer (January 2026) and expanded internationally, positioning itself for growth in 2026. This shift towards higher-margin generative AI platforms and products contributed to a significant increase in gross margin to 34% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 21.3% a year prior. Furthermore, the company's backlog increased by 14% sequentially from fiscal Q4 2025 to $281.9 million, driven by new orders, including a classified $53 million sole-source contract with an intelligence community customer.
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BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Financial Performance and Outlook
BigBear.ai experienced a mixed financial performance during the period, contributing to the stock's stability. While fiscal Q4 2025 (reported on March 2, 2026) saw a significant 38% decrease in revenue to $27.3 million due to lower volume on Army programs and a drop in gross margin to 20.3% from 37.4% in the prior year, the company exceeded EPS estimates. Subsequently, fiscal Q1 2026 (reported on May 4, 2026) showed essentially flat revenue at $34.4 million compared to Q1 2025, but a notable 50% beat on EPS, reporting a loss of -$0.04 against an expected -$0.08. Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million, signaling confidence in future performance despite past revenue challenges.
2. Strategic Growth Initiatives and Strong Backlog
The company's strategic initiatives, including recent acquisitions and a growing backlog, provided underlying support to the stock. BigBear.ai closed acquisitions of Ask Sage (December 2025) and CargoSeer (January 2026) and expanded internationally, positioning itself for growth in 2026. This shift towards higher-margin generative AI platforms and products contributed to a significant increase in gross margin to 34% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 21.3% a year prior. Furthermore, the company's backlog increased by 14% sequentially from fiscal Q4 2025 to $281.9 million, driven by new orders, including a classified $53 million sole-source contract with an intelligence community customer.
3. Shareholder Dilution and Legal Scrutiny
Counteracting the positive developments were significant shareholder dilution and ongoing legal scrutiny. In January 2026, BigBear.ai settled the remaining $125 million of its 2029 Convertible notes, primarily through debt-to-equity conversion, which resulted in "massive shareholder dilution". Additionally, as of February 2026, the company faced investigations into potential securities fraud and misleading corporate statements, particularly concerning Convertible Notes accounting and previous revenue guidance, which likely created downward pressure or capped potential gains.
4. Analyst Sentiment and Competitive Market Landscape
Analyst ratings during the period reflected a cautious outlook, contributing to the stock's relatively stable, yet constrained, movement. The consensus analyst rating for BBAI was largely "Hold" or "Moderate Buy," with price targets ranging from $3.00 to $6.00 and an average around $4.38 to $5.67. Some analysts even downgraded the stock to a "sell" rating in January and April 2026. This conservative sentiment is partly attributed to BigBear.ai operating in a highly competitive AI-driven defense and analytics market against larger, more established players like Palantir Technologies, which poses challenges for consistent growth and market differentiation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.0% change in BBAI stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.96 | 3.88 | -2.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 144 | 127 | -11.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.9 | 14.4 | 32.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 397 | 473 | -16.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -2.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 55.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.1% | 56.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.8% change in BBAI stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.34 | 3.88 | -38.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 144 | 127 | -11.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 17.4 | 14.4 | -17.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 397 | 473 | -16.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -38.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -38.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 30.2% | 54.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.7% change in BBAI stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.16 | 3.88 | -6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 160 | 127 | -20.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.6 | 14.4 | 119.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 252 | 473 | -46.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.2% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 61.8% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 75.6% change in BBAI stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 656.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.21 | 3.88 | 75.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 161 | 127 | -20.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 14.4 | 656.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 473 | -70.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 75.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BBAI | 75.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.3% | 35.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 130.9% | 36.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BBAI Return | -42% | -88% | 218% | 108% | 21% | -27% | -60% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 6% | 48% | 90% | 25% | -18% | 185% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BBAI Win Rate | 44% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 55% | 63% | 70% | 63% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BBAI Max Drawdown | - | -95% | -81% | -73% | -76% | -53% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -29% | -20% | -26% | -35% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PLTR, LDOS, BAH, CACI, PSN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BBAI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 229.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -80.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 418.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 427 days |
In The Past
BigBear.ai's stock fell -69.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 229.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BBAI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 229.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -80.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 418.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 427 days |
In The Past
BigBear.ai's stock fell -69.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 229.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BigBear.ai (BBAI)
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) specializes in providing decision support analytics solutions designed to help organizations make more informed and advantageous decisions. The company's core mission revolves around leveraging data to enhance operational effectiveness across various sectors.
The company's solutions encompass a comprehensive suite of services that enable customers to manage and utilize their data effectively. This includes the ability to catalog, curate, manage, automate, and visualize diverse data feeds. By processing and presenting this data in an actionable format, BigBear.ai empowers clients to gain critical insights and establish a decision advantage in complex operational environments.
BigBear.ai serves a broad spectrum of markets, with a significant focus on defense, intelligence, and federal civilian agencies. In addition to these government and national security clients, the company also extends its expertise to commercial markets, particularly within manufacturing, supply chain, and logistics sectors, where optimizing data utilization is key to efficiency and strategic advantage.
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Palantir, but for AI-powered strategic decision intelligence across diverse government and commercial sectors.
Like SAS or DataRobot, but specialized in providing AI-driven 'decision advantages' for complex government and commercial operations.
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- AI-powered Decision Support Analytics: Solutions that leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to provide actionable insights for enhanced decision-making across various sectors.
- Data Management & Curation: Services that enable customers to catalog, organize, and maintain high-quality data feeds for analytical readiness.
- Data Visualization & Automation: Tools and services designed to automate data processing and present complex data in clear, intuitive visual formats for better understanding.
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BigBear.ai (BBAI) primarily sells its decision support analytics solutions to other organizations, specifically the U.S. federal government and, to a lesser extent, commercial enterprises. Substantially all of its revenue is derived from U.S. federal government customers.
Major Customers:
-
U.S. Department of Defense (DoD): This is a collective major customer, encompassing various branches and commands, including but not limited to:
- U.S. Air Force
- U.S. Army
- U.S. Navy
- U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM)
- Defense Logistics Agency (DLA)
- U.S. Intelligence Community: This includes agencies such as the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).
- Various U.S. Federal Civilian Agencies: BigBear.ai serves non-defense federal departments.
While BigBear.ai is expanding its reach into commercial markets (manufacturing, supply chain, logistics), specific major commercial customer companies are not publicly disclosed, and these segments currently represent a smaller portion of the company's overall revenue compared to its government contracts.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Kevin McAleenan
Chief Executive Officer and Director
Kevin McAleenan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of BigBear.ai and a member of its Board of Directors effective January 15, 2025. Prior to this, he served as President of BigBear.ai. He co-founded and led Pangiam as CEO and Chair of the Board, developing biometric and AI products for security applications, until its acquisition by BigBear.ai in 2024. McAleenan brings extensive experience from nearly two decades of leadership in the U.S. Government, including serving as Acting Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and as the first career civil servant appointed and confirmed as Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
Sean Ricker
Chief Financial Officer
Sean Ricker was appointed Chief Financial Officer of BigBear.ai effective October 14, 2025, having served as interim CFO since June 6, 2025. In this role, he leads the company's accounting, finance, and systems functions. Ricker has held several roles at BigBear.ai, including Chief Accounting Officer from August 2022 to June 2025 and Corporate Controller since April 2021. Before joining BigBear.ai, he served in accounting and reporting roles at Lockheed Martin Corporation and was a director at MorganFranklin Consulting.
Carl Napoletano
Chief Operating Officer
Carl Napoletano serves as the Chief Operating Officer of BigBear.ai.
Dan Jones
Chief Products Officer
Dan Jones is the Chief Products Officer at BigBear.ai, responsible for leading all product management, user experience, and engineering functions for the company's SaaS platform and software applications. He possesses over 20 years of product management experience, having held senior product and program management roles at companies such as Skytap, Nordstrom, Microsoft, IBM, and HP.
Carolyn Blankenship
General Counsel
Carolyn Blankenship is the General Counsel for BigBear.ai, providing strategic input for the company. She is also an Observer to the Intellectual Property Subcommittee of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI).
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Key Risks to BigBear.ai (BBAI)
The key risks to BigBear.ai's business include its significant revenue concentration and volatility in government contracts, ongoing profitability concerns coupled with execution challenges, and historical accounting issues leading to legal scrutiny and shareholder dilution.
The most significant risk to BigBear.ai stems from its substantial reliance on government contracts, particularly within the U.S. defense and intelligence sectors. This concentration exposes the company to considerable revenue volatility driven by factors such as unpredictable contract timing, governmental funding cycles, and potential changes in programs or budgets. For example, recent financial reports have indicated revenue pressure due to reduced volumes on certain U.S. Army programs, leading to sharp declines in quarterly revenues. Analysts have highlighted that this dependency creates operational and financial uncertainty, with past disruptions directly impacting revenue guidance.
Secondly, BigBear.ai faces ongoing profitability challenges and concerns regarding its execution capabilities. The company has a history of reporting losses and negative operating margins, continuing to invest heavily in technology development and business integrations, which can keep margins under pressure. Despite a growing backlog, there are doubts about the company's ability to consistently convert these contract awards into sustainable and substantial revenue growth, especially given past instances of failing to meet revenue targets and experiencing cost overruns on fixed-price government contracts.
Finally, BigBear.ai has encountered significant legal and accounting issues, accompanied by risks of shareholder dilution. The company previously had to restate financial statements for fiscal years 2021 and subsequent periods due to incorrect accounting treatment of convertible notes, which revealed a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting. These accounting irregularities have led to securities class action lawsuits. Furthermore, the company has faced shareholder dilution, with shares outstanding increasing significantly in recent years, a trend that could continue if further capital is needed for aggressive acquisition strategies.
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The clear emerging threat for BigBear.ai is the rapid advancement and increasing accessibility of powerful artificial intelligence models, particularly large language models (LLMs) and generative AI. These technologies are fundamentally changing how data is processed, analyzed, and leveraged for decision-making across all markets BigBear.ai serves.
As LLMs become more sophisticated and widely available, they offer capabilities to synthesize vast amounts of data, identify complex patterns, generate actionable insights, and automate aspects of decision support. This directly impacts BigBear.ai's core business of providing "decision support analytics solutions" by:
- Potentially Commoditizing Analytics: Organizations may increasingly leverage highly accessible, general-purpose AI models from cloud providers or open-source initiatives to build or customize their own decision-support tools, reducing reliance on specialized third-party providers.
- Creating New Standards for Insight Generation: The ability of generative AI to provide more dynamic, conversational, and context-aware insights could set new expectations for decision support, potentially making more traditional analytics solutions seem less competitive.
- Intensifying Competition from Platform Providers: Hyperscalers and major software vendors are aggressively integrating advanced AI capabilities into their ecosystems, offering comprehensive solutions that could outcompete standalone specialized analytics firms.
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BigBear.ai (BBAI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, including strategic acquisitions, international market expansion, and the continued pursuit of government and commercial opportunities leveraging its AI-powered solutions.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Integration of Advanced AI Platforms: A significant driver of future revenue growth for BigBear.ai is its strategic acquisitions, notably Ask Sage and CargoSeer. The acquisition of Ask Sage, a generative AI platform for secure distribution of AI models, is anticipated to deliver approximately $25 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in 2025, representing a sixfold increase from its 2024 ARR. CargoSeer adds AI-enabled cargo inspection capabilities. These acquisitions are seen as catalytic moves to accelerate growth and strengthen the company's position in national security, travel, and trade markets.
- International Expansion: BigBear.ai is actively pursuing expanded international operations, with a particular focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The company has highlighted a transformative partnership in the UAE aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of AI across various domains and applications, signaling this as a core part of its growth strategy for near-term revenue opportunities.
- Leveraging Government AI Acceleration and Expanding Commercial Market Presence: The company is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI and analytics solutions within both government and commercial sectors. BigBear.ai plans to aggressively pursue government contracts, particularly in national security markets, aligning with the U.S. Government's AI Acceleration Strategy. Concurrently, it aims to broaden its revenue streams by expanding into new commercial markets such as healthcare, finance, and energy, thereby reducing its dependency on government contracts.
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Share Repurchases
- BigBear.ai recorded treasury stock at cost of $57.35 million as of December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024.
Share Issuance
- BigBear.ai went public in December 2021 through a SPAC merger, issuing 8 million new shares and approximately 1.5 million shares to advisors.
- In 2025, the company raised $693 million in proceeds from at-the-market (ATM) equity facilities and warrants.
- In January 2026, BigBear.ai settled $125 million of its 2029 Convertible notes primarily by converting debt to equity, which is expected to result in the issuance of approximately 38 million shares of common stock.
Inbound Investments
- The SPAC merger in December 2021 facilitated capital infusion into the company through the issuance of shares.
- BigBear.ai secured $693 million of proceeds in 2025 through its ATM facilities and warrants.
- The company maintained a strong cash position, reporting $462 million in cash and investments at the end of 2025, and a record $715 million in cash and investments in the third quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- BigBear.ai acquired Pangiam in an all-stock acquisition in March 2025.
- The company completed the acquisition of Ask Sage in December 2025, marking it as the largest acquisition in BigBear.ai's history.
- In January 2026, BigBear.ai closed the acquisition of CargoSeer.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the purchases of property and equipment were $4.008 million in 2025 and $3.616 million in 2024.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures has been on ongoing investments in integration and expansion, product development, and go-to-market initiatives.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.7 |
| Rev LTM | 7,732 |
| Op Inc LTM | 944 |
| FCF LTM | 764 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 591 |
| CFO LTM | 853 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 669 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 28.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 128 | 158 | |||
| Cyber & Engineering and Analytics | 155 | 155 | |||
| Analytics | 71 | ||||
| Cyber & Engineering | 75 | ||||
| Total | 128 | 158 | 155 | 155 | 146 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Cyber & Engineering and Analytics | -296 | -71 |
| Total | -296 | -71 |
| $ Mil | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Analytics | 150 | 154 |
| Cyber & Engineering | 39 | 75 |
| Corporate | 6 | 154 |
| Total | 195 | 383 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.88 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/05/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -56.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.10 | $5.22 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.3% | -25.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 78.8% | 96.9% |
| Downside Capture | 428.06 | 446.73 |
| Upside Capture | 269.36 | 327.49 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 61.3% | 43.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.45 | 2.38 | 2.78 | 3.26 | 3.49 | 2.63 |
| Up Beta | 1.49 | 1.03 | 2.84 | 3.13 | 3.96 | 1.89 |
| Down Beta | 5.16 | 2.19 | 1.87 | 1.60 | 2.18 | 1.99 |
| Up Capture | 585% | 349% | 381% | 514% | 1077% | 39937% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 57 | 116 | 335 |
| Down Capture | 529% | 416% | 267% | 286% | 208% | 114% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 17 | 29 | 66 | 132 | 395 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BBAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -9.0% | 96.9% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 54.0% | 22.9% | 1.81 | 43.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.5% | 12.4% | 1.48 | 43.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.7% | 27.5% | 0.79 | 24.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.7% | 18.9% | 0.95 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.8% | 0.49 | 8.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -38.7% | 42.4% | -1.04 | 32.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BBAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -16.2% | 165.7% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.3% | 25.2% | 0.78 | 15.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 14.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.9% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 11.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 54.2% | 0.42 | 14.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BBAI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | -8.6% | 163.0% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.1% | 24.7% | 0.92 | 15.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 14.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 3.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 10.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.4% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 13.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 5.6% | 1.2% | 15.2% |
| 3/2/2026 | -7.3% | 2.4% | -14.1% |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.1% | -2.5% | 18.0% |
| 8/11/2025 | -15.8% | -17.5% | -33.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.6% | -2.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/5/2024 | -9.7% | 3.4% | 62.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.3% | -12.1% | 13.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -13.9% | -14.5% | -14.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 2.9% | 18.2% |
| Median Negative | -13.9% | -12.1% | -29.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 20.5% | 62.5% |
| Max Negative | -31.6% | -35.1% | -52.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 5.6% | 1.2% | 15.2% |
| 3/2/2026 | -7.3% | 2.4% | -14.1% |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.1% | -2.5% | 18.0% |
| 8/11/2025 | -15.8% | -17.5% | -33.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.6% | -2.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/5/2024 | -9.7% | 3.4% | 62.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.3% | -12.1% | 13.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -13.9% | -14.5% | -14.5% |
| 3/7/2024 | -31.6% | -35.1% | -49.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | -4.5% | 20.5% | 5.1% |
| 8/8/2023 | -10.2% | -9.0% | -10.2% |
| 5/9/2023 | -14.1% | -18.9% | -29.0% |
| 3/13/2023 | -18.0% | -33.8% | 35.1% |
| 11/9/2022 | 2.0% | -2.0% | -5.0% |
| 8/9/2022 | -27.0% | -34.7% | -52.2% |
| 5/9/2022 | -2.8% | -11.0% | -38.0% |
| 3/17/2022 | -22.3% | -11.6% | 40.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 2.9% | 18.2% |
| Median Negative | -13.9% | -12.1% | -29.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 20.5% | 62.5% |
| Max Negative | -31.6% | -35.1% | -52.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 12/23/2021 | S-1 |
| 10/31/2020 | 04/07/2023 | 10-K/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 135.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 17.2% | Affirmed | Actual: 128.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 135.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 17.2% | Higher New | Actual: 128.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricker, Sean Raymond | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 4.33 | 10,000 | 43,300 | 2,638,078 | Form |
| 2 | Hayes, Dorothy D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 4.11 | 15,000 | 61,575 | 838,036 | Form | |
| 3 | Braden, Pamela Joyce | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 4.00 | 80,000 | 320,000 | 2,034,748 | Form | |
| 4 | Hayes, Dorothy D | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 3.98 | 17,000 | 67,660 | 872,217 | Form | |
| 5 | Ricker, Sean Raymond | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 7.06 | 5,000 | 35,296 | 3,449,895 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricker, Sean Raymond | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 4.33 | 10,000 | 43,300 | 2,638,078 | Form |
| 2 | Hayes, Dorothy D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 4.11 | 15,000 | 61,575 | 838,036 | Form | |
| 3 | Braden, Pamela Joyce | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 4.00 | 80,000 | 320,000 | 2,034,748 | Form | |
| 4 | Hayes, Dorothy D | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 3.98 | 17,000 | 67,660 | 872,217 | Form | |
| 5 | Ricker, Sean Raymond | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 7.06 | 5,000 | 35,296 | 3,449,895 | Form |
| 6 | Hayes, Dorothy D | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 6.08 | 22,000 | 133,870 | 1,436,973 | Form | |
| 7 | Ricker, Sean Raymond | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 5.35 | 11,978 | 64,082 | 1,585,446 | Form |
| 8 | Ricker, Sean Raymond | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 5.40 | 2 | 11 | 1,664,944 | Form |
| 9 | Hayes, Dorothy D | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 5.83 | 30,000 | 174,900 | 1,505,014 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| IT Consulting & Other Services Resources |
| IDC |
| Forrester |
| Consultancy.org |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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