Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
  Key risks
B key risks include [1] geopolitical and jurisdictional instability in key operating countries such as Mali, Show more.
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4%
7 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194%
8 Key risks
B key risks include [1] geopolitical and jurisdictional instability in key operating countries such as Mali, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Barrick Mining (B) stock has gained about 55% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Soaring Gold Prices: The price of gold itself experienced a significant uptrend, with continuous gains in 2025, climbing as much as 55% and surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October 2025. This robust macroeconomic environment for gold, which reached an all-time high of $5608.35 per troy ounce in January 2026, directly benefited Barrick Mining as a primary gold producer.

2. Record Financial Performance: Barrick Mining reported exceptional financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. The company delivered a record operating cash flow of US$2.73 billion and free cash flow of US$1.62 billion in Q4 2025, driven by higher realized gold prices and strong operational execution. For the full year 2025, net earnings per share increased by 140% to US$2.93, and free cash flow surged by 194% to US$3.87 billion compared to 2024.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 56.7% change in B stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)103120252272026Change
Stock Price ($)32.3950.7456.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)13,82416,95622.7%
Net Income Margin (%)20.0%29.4%47.3%
P/E Multiple20.117.1-14.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7161,6832.0%
Cumulative Contribution56.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
B56.7% 
Market (SPY)0.6%41.6%
Sector (XLB)24.7%55.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 144.7% change in B stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120252272026Change
Stock Price ($)20.7450.74144.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)13,30516,95627.4%
Net Income Margin (%)17.5%29.4%68.7%
P/E Multiple15.417.111.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7251,6832.5%
Cumulative Contribution144.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
B144.7% 
Market (SPY)8.8%30.5%
Sector (XLB)22.3%40.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 219.2% change in B stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120252272026Change
Stock Price ($)15.9050.74219.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,33616,95637.5%
Net Income Margin (%)13.2%29.4%123.3%
P/E Multiple17.117.1-0.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7521,6834.1%
Cumulative Contribution219.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
B219.2% 
Market (SPY)15.0%23.5%
Sector (XLB)22.1%35.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 180.3% change in B stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120232272026Change
Stock Price ($)18.1150.74180.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,54916,95646.8%
Net Income Margin (%)16.4%29.4%79.7%
P/E Multiple16.917.11.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7681,6835.1%
Cumulative Contribution180.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
B180.3% 
Market (SPY)75.0%24.2%
Sector (XLB)33.1%36.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
B Return-13%-7%8%-12%187%17%154%
Peers Return5%-10%23%19%119%38%318%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%84%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
B Win Rate58%50%67%33%92%100% 
Peers Win Rate50%43%58%48%78%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
B Max Drawdown-21%-30%-16%-22%-0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-35%-14%-18%-8%0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEM, FCX, AEM, SCCO, KGC. See B Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,023 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-52.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven110.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven526 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven195.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven767 days1,480 days

Compare to NEM, FCX, AEM, SCCO, KGC

In The Past

Barrick Mining's stock fell -48.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -48.8% loss requires a 95.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick Gold Corporation engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in the United States, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Chile, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, Zambia, and Saudi Arabia. It primarily explores for gold, copper, and nickel deposits. The company's principal properties include Cortez, Goldstrike, Pueblo Viejo, Lagunas Norte, and Veladero. As of December 31, 2016, it had proven and probable gold reserves of 85.9 million ounces; and 11.1 proven and probable copper reserves of billion pounds. Barrick Gold Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Barrick Mining:

  • It's like the ExxonMobil of gold mining.
  • Think of it as the Shell of precious metals.
  • It's like the De Beers of gold.

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  • Gold: A precious metal primarily used for investment, jewelry, and industrial applications.
  • Copper: An industrial metal widely used in electrical wiring, plumbing, and construction.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Barrick Gold Corporation (TSX: B; NYSE: GOLD) is a major global gold and copper producer. As a company that extracts and processes raw commodities, Barrick primarily sells its products into global markets rather than directly to end-user consumers or a limited number of publicly disclosed major customers.

Due to the nature of commodity sales, where gold doré, refined gold, and copper concentrate/cathodes are sold on global spot and forward markets, specific names of major customer companies are generally not publicly disclosed by Barrick or similar mining companies. Sales typically occur to a diverse and continually changing group of buyers, and these relationships are often governed by commercial confidentiality agreements.

However, the primary types of companies that purchase Barrick's products include:

  • Bullion Banks and Financial Institutions: These entities purchase gold for investment products, hedging, trading, and storage. They act as intermediaries in the global gold market. Examples of large bullion banks (though not direct "customers" identifiable for Barrick specifically) include JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HSBC), and UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS).
  • Metal Refiners and Smelters: These companies further process Barrick's gold doré (unrefined gold bars) into higher purity products (e.g., London Good Delivery bars) and copper concentrate into refined copper cathodes. Their business is to refine raw materials for various industrial and investment purposes.
  • Commodity Trading Houses and Industrial Users: Large commodity trading firms facilitate the global movement of raw materials. Additionally, some industrial users, such as manufacturers utilizing gold in electronics or jewelry, or companies requiring copper for electrical components, construction, or automotive applications, may acquire metals through these channels or directly from refiners.

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  • Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)
  • Komatsu Ltd. (OTCPK: KMTUY)
  • Sandvik AB (OTCPK: SDVKY)
  • Epiroc AB (OTCPK: EPIAF)
  • Orica Limited (OTCQX: OCRAF)
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)

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Mark Hill, Group COO and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

Mark Hill was appointed Group COO and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer of Barrick in September 2025. He previously served as the executive responsible for the Latin America and Asia Pacific region, a role he assumed in January 2019. Hill is a seasoned mining executive with 30 years of experience, having joined Barrick in 2006. His experience includes strategy, corporate development, and leading major projects globally, and he was integral in the initial decision to undertake exploration at the Fourmile gold project in Nevada.

Graham Shuttleworth, Senior Executive Vice-President, Chief Financial Officer

Graham Shuttleworth has been the Chief Financial Officer and Senior Executive Vice President of Barrick since 2019. He is a chartered accountant with over 29 years of experience in the mining industry. Prior to joining Barrick, he served as the Financial Director and Chief Financial Officer of Randgold Resources from 2007. Before his time at Randgold, he was the Managing Director and Head of Metals and Mining for the Americas in the global investment banking division at HSBC.

Mark Bristow, Former President and Chief Executive Officer (until September 2025)

Mark Bristow served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Barrick Gold Corporation from 2019 until September 2025. He founded Randgold Resources in 1995 and served as its Chief Executive Officer, leading its growth into a major international gold mining business listed on the London Stock Exchange. Randgold Resources was acquired by Barrick in an all-stock deal for US$6.5 billion in 2018, leading to the creation of one of the world's largest gold producers. Following the merger, Bristow restructured and restrategized Barrick and was a key driver in combining the Nevada assets of Barrick and Newmont, forming Nevada Gold Mines. He also founded Rockwell Resources International in 2006, a diamond mining company, and is chairman of Midway Resources International, a private E&P start-up.

George Joannou, Chief Development Officer

George Joannou was appointed Chief Development Officer of Barrick in November 2025. He had previously held the position of Senior Vice President, Strategic Matters since 2014. Joannou joined Barrick in 2002 as an accountant and has also served as Assistant Treasurer, CFO Australia Pacific, and head of Planning and Capital Allocation. He is a Chartered Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree.

Poupak Bahamin, Chief Legal Officer

Poupak Bahamin was appointed Chief Legal Officer of Barrick in November 2025. She joined Barrick in 2020 as Deputy General Counsel and was promoted to General Counsel in April 2022. With over 30 years of legal experience, Bahamin has practiced law in Canada, France, and the United States, and previously served as a partner and Co-Head of Mining US at Norton Rose Fulbright.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Barrick Mining (symbol: B) are primarily related to commodity price volatility, geopolitical and jurisdictional challenges, and operational and project execution complexities.

  1. Volatility in Commodity Prices: Barrick Mining's profitability and cash flow are strongly influenced by global market prices for gold and copper. Significant and sustained drops in these prices would negatively affect the company's financial performance.
  2. Geopolitical and Jurisdictional Risks: The company operates in various countries, some of which are politically volatile. These risks include the potential for nationalization of resources, unfavorable changes in government regulations, and political instability in regions such as Mexico, Mali, Pakistan (Balochistan), Papua New Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
  3. Operational and Project Execution Challenges: Risks inherent in mining operations include the accuracy of mineral reserve estimates, managing capital and operating costs, potential delays or interruptions in project construction and ramp-up, and challenges in large-scale construction. Additionally, environmental hazards, industrial accidents, and the physical and transitional risks associated with climate change (e.g., changes to rainfall patterns, energy supply) pose material operational challenges.

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Increased and evolving environmental, social, and governance (ESG) pressures and regulations.

This includes:

  • Stricter environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions, water usage, biodiversity protection, mine closure and reclamation costs), making it significantly more difficult and expensive to permit, develop, and operate new mines.
  • Heightened scrutiny and demands related to social license to operate, community engagement, indigenous rights, and labor practices, leading to potential project delays, operational disruptions, and reputational damage.
  • Growing investor and stakeholder demands for transparency, ethical supply chains, and accountability, potentially increasing the cost of capital or limiting access to financing for companies perceived as having poor ESG performance.

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Barrick Mining (symbol: B) primarily produces gold and copper.

Gold

  • Global Market Size: The global gold market size was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach around USD 457.91 billion by 2032 or USD 400 billion by the end of 2030.
  • Regional Market Share (2023/2024): Asia Pacific dominated the global gold market, holding a 66.25% share in 2023, valued at USD 182.88 billion, and USD 194.01 billion in 2024. North America accounted for 15% of the market, and Europe held a 10% share.

Copper

  • Global Market Size: The global copper market size was estimated at approximately USD 241.88 billion in 2024, with other estimates ranging from USD 277.92 billion to USD 333.15 billion in the same year. It is projected to reach around USD 339.95 billion by 2030 or USD 548.20 billion by 2034.
  • Regional Market Share (2024): Asia Pacific dominated the copper market, holding the largest revenue share of 74.7%, or approximately 55.6% and over 39% of the revenue share. The Asia Pacific copper market size is valued at USD 136.16 billion in 2025 and is expected to surpass USD 213.80 billion by 2034.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Barrick Mining (symbol: B) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market conditions:

  1. Increased Gold Production from Key Growth Projects: Barrick is advancing several significant gold projects that are expected to contribute to increased production. The Pueblo Viejo expansion in the Dominican Republic is progressing towards becoming a substantial producer. The Goldrush mine in Nevada is ramping up, targeting 400,000 ounces per annum by 2028. Additionally, the adjacent Fourmile project in Nevada is anticipated to become a "world-class Tier One asset," with a preliminary economic assessment outlining potential annual production of up to 750,000 ounces of gold for 25 years.
  2. Significant Growth in Copper Production: The company is strategically expanding its copper business, positioning it as a future core asset due to surging demand driven by the global energy transition. Key projects include the Lumwana Super Pit Expansion in Zambia, which is expected to double the mine's production over a 30-plus-year life. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase by the end of 2028. Barrick aims for a 30% growth in gold equivalent ounces by the end of the decade, with copper playing a crucial role.
  3. Sustained Favorable Gold and Copper Prices: Higher realized gold prices have significantly boosted Barrick's revenue and profit in recent quarters. Analysts forecast continued strong gold prices, with some predicting $3,500 per ounce. Similarly, the rising demand for copper is expected to maintain favorable copper prices, directly translating into increased revenue per unit sold for Barrick.
  4. Operational Optimization, Exploration Success, and Reserve Growth: Barrick's commitment to operational efficiency and cost management is expected to lead to declining operating costs. Investments in infrastructure and plant reliability, such as the Gold Quarry roaster expansion, are designed to increase capacity and improve efficiencies. Furthermore, Barrick has a strong track record of replacing its reserves through successful exploration programs and is forecasting substantial growth in both its gold and copper reserves, ensuring a robust pipeline for long-term sustainable production.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  1. Share Repurchases
    • Over the past three years, Barrick returned $3.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, resulting in a 3% reduction in outstanding shares.
    • In February 2025, Barrick's Board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion.
    • As of September 30, 2025, the company had completed the $1.0 billion repurchase, and the Board approved a $500 million increase to the program, totaling $1.5 billion authorized through February 2026.
  2. Share Issuance
    • Barrick's strong financial position has allowed it to invest in future projects without the need to issue new shares or take on unnecessary debt.
  3. Inbound Investments
    • Berkshire Hathaway acquired $562 million in Barrick shares during the second quarter of 2020, becoming the company's eleventh-largest shareholder.
  4. Outbound Investments
    • Barrick sold its 50% stake in the Donlin Gold Project in Alaska for $1 billion in cash in April 2025.
    • The company is divesting its Hemlo operation in Ontario and its Tongon interests and exploration properties in Côte d'Ivoire, with total gross proceeds from non-core asset sales in 2025 expected to be approximately $2.6 billion.
    • Barrick acquired a 45% stake in Argentina's Veladero mine, securing access to 9 million ounces of reserves, as mentioned in Q1 2025.
  5. Capital Expenditures
    • Barrick's 2025 capital budget is $1.2 billion, with 60% allocated to sustaining projects and 40% to high-return expansion initiatives.
    • Total consolidated capital expenditures in Q3 2025 reached $943 million, a 28% increase year-over-year, with project capital expenditures rising to $532 million.
    • Significant growth projects include the Lumwana Super Pit Expansion, with construction commencing in 2025 and an estimated total capital cost of $2 billion, and the Reko Diq project, with Phase 1 capital costs estimated at $5.6-$6.0 billion (100% basis), with Barrick's share of equity contribution expected to be $1.8-$2.0 billion.

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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BNEMFCXAEMSCCOKGCMedian
NameBarrick .Newmont Freeport.Agnico E.Southern.Kinross . 
Mkt Price50.74130.0068.08251.60218.3036.9999.04
Mkt Cap85.4141.897.8126.0179.644.6111.9
Rev LTM16,95622,66925,91511,90812,3357,05114,645
Op Inc LTM8,09411,0236,5026,3066,1993,2286,404
FCF LTM3,8687,2991,1164,2623,4802,5663,674
FCF 3Y Avg1,9443,4521,3082,1083,0351,4812,026
CFO LTM7,68910,3345,6106,8174,6183,7606,214
CFO 3Y Avg5,3046,4876,0164,4604,1122,6044,882

Growth & Margins

BNEMFCXAEMSCCOKGCMedian
NameBarrick .Newmont Freeport.Agnico E.Southern.Kinross . 
Rev Chg LTM31.2%21.3%1.8%43.7%12.7%36.9%26.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.0%26.2%4.5%28.1%7.1%27.0%21.1%
Rev Chg Q64.5%20.6%-1.5%60.3%15.2%42.9%31.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM16.1%5.4%-0.3%12.7%3.8%9.4%7.4%
Op Mgn LTM47.7%48.6%25.1%53.0%50.3%45.8%48.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.2%28.8%26.4%38.8%47.3%31.0%33.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.8%5.1%-1.6%3.6%0.8%5.3%3.7%
CFO/Rev LTM45.3%45.6%21.6%57.2%37.4%53.3%45.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.6%34.3%24.3%48.1%36.6%46.2%37.1%
FCF/Rev LTM22.8%32.2%4.3%35.8%28.2%36.4%30.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.9%16.3%5.2%20.2%27.0%25.0%18.2%

Valuation

BNEMFCXAEMSCCOKGCMedian
NameBarrick .Newmont Freeport.Agnico E.Southern.Kinross . 
Mkt Cap85.4141.897.8126.0179.644.6111.9
P/S5.06.33.810.614.66.36.3
P/EBIT9.212.314.518.728.313.614.1
P/E17.120.044.428.247.018.724.1
P/CFO11.113.717.418.538.911.915.6
Total Yield6.9%5.8%3.1%4.1%3.4%5.7%4.9%
Dividend Yield1.0%0.8%0.9%0.6%1.3%0.3%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.1%4.7%2.2%3.4%3.6%8.8%3.9%
D/E0.10.00.10.00.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.1-0.00.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

BNEMFCXAEMSCCOKGCMedian
NameBarrick .Newmont Freeport.Agnico E.Southern.Kinross . 
1M Rtn-3.4%-1.5%7.0%12.8%10.7%-2.8%2.8%
3M Rtn23.8%43.3%58.8%44.6%62.7%31.6%43.9%
6M Rtn93.0%75.8%54.3%75.4%129.8%77.2%76.5%
12M Rtn193.7%213.9%84.5%168.0%147.9%251.0%180.8%
3Y Rtn237.8%223.3%72.8%480.5%229.2%961.8%233.5%
1M Excs Rtn-2.0%-0.1%8.4%14.3%12.1%-1.4%4.2%
3M Excs Rtn29.7%49.5%64.5%50.4%68.2%40.3%49.9%
6M Excs Rtn89.4%74.6%50.0%75.1%123.4%77.1%76.1%
12M Excs Rtn167.7%187.9%66.4%143.6%125.1%220.9%155.6%
3Y Excs Rtn165.6%146.4%-3.0%421.4%156.7%877.9%161.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Carlin2,7602,8482,6872,9521,862
Cortez1,7371,3161,4851,4091,325
Other Mines1,5911,5532,6593,124 
Loulo-Gounkoto1,3351,2361,2491,2081,007
Pueblo Viejo1,1181,3031,5141,6131,409
Turquoise Ridge1,008814987960688
Lumwana795868   
Kibali670598661648505
North Mara591570552571462
Bulyanhulu44246336124053
Other revenue2042109185 
Share of equity investee-670-598-661-648-505
Veladero  382333386
Other Mines - Gold    2,122
Porgera    403
Total11,39711,01311,98512,5959,717


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Carlin9381,1141,1891,297531
Cortez542450547628550
Loulo-Gounkoto484426474449238
Pueblo Viejo316461759873676
Other Mines286109809926149
Turquoise Ridge280160371375259
Kibali243142278244108
North Mara165209254254146
Bulyanhulu14714014731-19
Lumwana37180   
Other revenue2042   
Gain (loss) on currency translation-93    
Share of equity investee-243-142-278-244-108
Impairment reversals (charges)-312    
Exploration, evaluation and project expenses not attributable to segments -249 -210 
Finance costs, net (includes non-segment accretion) -265-329  
General and administrative expenses -159 -185 
Loss on non-hedge derivatives 72  
Other income (expense) not attributable to segments 396   
Veladero  11811457
Porgera    113
Total2,8103,0214,3414,5522,700


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$50.74 
Market Cap ($ Bil)86.4 
First Trading Date12/29/2006 
Distance from 52W High-3.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$47.19$32.43
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA7.5%56.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility44.1%41.7%
Downside Capture101.5418.41
Upside Capture237.38123.25
Correlation (SPY)26.3%23.4%
B Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.400.691.631.170.480.54
Up Beta-2.63-0.591.701.500.350.36
Down Beta-1.76-1.090.400.050.370.50
Up Capture331%251%391%340%142%55%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days14274082153403
Down Capture291%180%131%69%28%81%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days614214195339

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with B
B184.4%41.7%2.61-
Sector ETF (XLB)22.4%20.7%0.8736.9%
Equity (SPY)16.5%19.4%0.6623.2%
Gold (GLD)81.3%25.7%2.2970.9%
Commodities (DBC)13.4%16.9%0.5836.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.3%16.6%0.2517.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-20.2%44.9%-0.3719.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with B
B23.3%34.9%0.68-
Sector ETF (XLB)9.3%18.9%0.3837.7%
Equity (SPY)13.6%17.0%0.6326.0%
Gold (GLD)23.5%17.1%1.1270.8%
Commodities (DBC)10.6%19.0%0.4431.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%18.8%0.1828.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.5%57.0%0.3014.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with B
B17.1%37.2%0.54-
Sector ETF (XLB)12.3%20.6%0.5325.2%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7417.3%
Gold (GLD)15.3%15.6%0.8270.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%17.6%0.4125.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.6%20.7%0.2819.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)66.2%66.8%1.0612.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1312026-13.7%
Average Daily Volume18.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity1,683.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative000
Median Positive   
Median Negative   
Max Positive   
Max Negative   

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/10/20256-K
06/30/202508/11/20256-K
03/31/202505/07/20256-K
12/31/202403/14/202540-F
09/30/202411/07/20246-K
06/30/202408/12/20246-K
03/31/202405/02/20246-K
12/31/202303/15/202440-F
09/30/202311/02/20236-K
06/30/202308/08/20236-K
03/31/202305/03/20236-K
12/31/202203/17/202340-F
09/30/202211/04/20226-K
06/30/202208/08/20226-K
03/31/202205/05/20226-K
12/31/202103/18/202240-F

B Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The probability-adjusted skew of 4.74x is exceptionally attractive and places the stock in the highest conviction tier. The analysis indicates the market is overly focused on manageable, near-term operational issues (Anti-Alpha) while significantly undervaluing a powerful, intact secular growth driver (Alpha Driver) in a company with a widening competitive moat. This creates a compelling opportunity where the potential reward substantially outweighs the calibrated risk.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / Commodity

The company's revenue and profitability are described as almost entirely dependent on the volatile and unpredictable spot prices of gold and copper. The business model is defined as a 'Commodity Extractor (Price-Taker)', fitting the Type C archetype perfectly.

INVESTMENT THESIS
Leveraged Margin Expansion from Tier 1 Assets in a Structural Commodity Bull Market

The core long thesis rests on Barrick's superior ability to capitalize on bullish structural trends in both gold and copper. With gold demand driven by geopolitical risk and central bank buying, and copper facing a supply deficit due to the energy transition and AI, Barrick's structurally lower cost base versus key rival Newmont provides significant operating leverage, enabling outsized margin expansion and free cash flow generation as commodity prices rise.

Mechanism: As a low-cost producer, increases in realized gold and copper prices flow more directly to the bottom line. Every dollar increase in the commodity price above the All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) results in a larger profit margin expansion for Barrick compared to higher-cost peers.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Structural market deficits identified, with gold prices forecast to reach $6,100-$6,300/oz and copper facing a 150,000+ ton deficit in 2026.
  • Barrick maintains a unit cost advantage, with a guided AISC structurally lower than Newmont's ($1,760+/oz), ensuring superior profitability.
  • Demonstrated high FCF conversion, turning approximately 50% of operating cash flow into free cash flow in FY2025, with FCF growing 194%.
PRIMARY RISK
Accelerating Cost Inflation and Declining Production Volumes for FY2026

The primary friction is self-inflicted operational weakness that could neutralize the benefits of a strong macro backdrop. Despite record cash flows driven by high gold prices, the company has guided to lower production volumes and significantly higher All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for 2026. This combination of rising costs and falling output threatens to severely compress margins, even if gold prices remain elevated.

Mechanism: Margin compression occurs as the gap between the realized commodity price and the All-in Sustaining Cost narrows. Simultaneously, lower production ounces mean less product to sell, putting a cap on potential revenue and cash flow, regardless of price.
Supporting Evidence:
  • FY26 Gold AISC is guided to a range of $1,760–$1,950/oz, a substantial increase from FY2025's $1,637/oz.
  • FY26 gold production guidance of 2.9-3.25M oz is flat to down from FY25's 3.26M oz, which itself was down 17% from 2024.
  • The stock reacted negatively to its latest earnings report, falling despite record cash flow, indicating investor focus has shifted to these negative operational forward indicators.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC)Quarterly results below the midpoint of the $1,760-$1,950/oz annual guidance.This is the primary Anti-Alpha. Demonstrating cost control is critical to proving the margin compression fears are overblown and restoring confidence.
Gold Production VolumeQuarterly production that annualizes above the midpoint of the 2.9-3.25M oz guidance.Stabilizing and reversing the production decline is necessary to prove the operational issues are contained and to maximize revenue capture in a rising price environment.
Realized Gold & Copper PricesSustained realized prices >10% above the assumptions used in company guidance.The Alpha Driver is contingent on the commodity bull market. Outsized price realization can offset cost pressures and is the primary catalyst for an earnings beat and share re-rating.
Core Investment Debate

Price Supercycle vs. Operational Decay

BULL VIEW

Elevated gold prices provide immense margin leverage and free cash flow, making operational headwinds manageable. The stock is a prime beneficiary of the commodity supercycle.

CORE TENSION

Can record-high gold prices and massive cash flow generation mask deteriorating core operations of declining production and sharply rising costs?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

Despite record Q4 cash flow, the stock fell over 8% after the Feb 5, 2026 earnings release, reacting to lower 2026 production guidance and significantly higher cost forecasts.

BEAR VIEW

Declining production (FY25: -17%), falling reserves, and surging cost guidance (FY26 AISC +8-19%) reveal a fundamentally weakening business reliant on fragile spot prices.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late April/Early May 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Watch: Gold All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) relative to the guided range of $1,760-$1,950/oz.
Feb 23-26, 2026
BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference
Watch: Management commentary on North American IPO valuation and timeline, and Reko Diq project review.
Anytime (Q1-Q2 2026)
Reko Diq Project Update
Watch: Formal announcement regarding project delay, capital budget increase, or halt due to security review.
Monthly (Q2-Q3 2026)
China Industrial Production & PMI Data
Watch: China's Manufacturing PMI. A sustained trend below 50 signals contraction and weakening copper demand.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-08-11
Q2 2025 Earnings Release
Details: Stock fell notably as Q2 results likely reflected ongoing operational challenges and cost pressures, continuing a trend of volatile quarterly performance.
-2.52%
$23.19 -> $22.61
2025-09-19
Investor Day / Strategic Update
Details: Stock surged on a likely investor event where management outlined a positive long-term outlook and strategic initiatives, boosting market confidence.
+9.71%
$29.94 -> $32.84
2025-11-10
Q3 2025 Earnings Release
Details: Stock surged after Q3 results showed a sequential recovery in production and a beat on earnings expectations, signaling operational improvements in the second half of the year.
+5.17%
$32.94 -> $34.65
2025-12-16
Strategic Update: Mali Resolution
Details: Barrick announced it regained control of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali after months of dispute, resetting government relations and outlining a production ramp-up for 2026.
+1.49%
$42.93 -> $43.57
2026-01-28
Stock Hits Multi-Year High
Details: Shares reached a 52-week high as gold prices surged, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and anticipation of a strong earnings report.
+1.55%
$52.17 -> $52.98
2026-02-05
Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance
Details: Despite reporting record quarterly cash flow and beating estimates, the stock plummeted on weak 2026 guidance for lower production and sharply higher costs.
-7.16%
$47.36 -> $43.97
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is in an Explosive volatility regime (4.18x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, low revenue visibility, and deteriorating operational metrics mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.

Diversification Alternatives
AEM
INDUSTRY

Unlike Barrick, AEM offers a more stable geopolitical risk profile with assets primarily in North America and Australia, avoiding the specific security risks at the Reko Diq project.

Core Thesis: A best-in-class operator known for consistent execution and exploration success in politically stable jurisdictions, offering a lower-risk exposure to gold prices.
FCX
SECTOR

Offers pure-play exposure to the copper secular growth story (energy transition, AI) without the complexities of gold mining operations and pricing.

Core Thesis: A direct investment in a structurally undersupplied commodity critical for global electrification, driven by large-scale, long-life assets.
How Is The Market Pricing B?

Following a record year of cash flow in FY2025 driven by high realized gold prices, Barrick now faces market scrutiny over its 2026 guidance, which signals lower production volumes and higher costs.

Filter all news through the lens of operational execution versus 2026 guidance and capital allocation discipline.

What will confirm the thesis

Quarterly production volumes beating the 2.90–3.25M oz gold guidance range; All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) coming in below the $1,760-$1,950/oz guided range; Positive progress on the North American assets IPO; Successful ramp-up of growth projects.

What will damage the thesis

Production misses or cost overruns at key mines; Geopolitical instability impacting operations in Mali, Pakistan, or Zambia; A sustained decline in gold spot prices below the cost base; Negative revisions to the North American assets IPO plan.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Minor week-to-week fluctuations in the spot price of gold (the thesis is based on beating cost/production guidance within the existing price environment); Analyst price target changes not backed by a change in production or cost estimates; Early-stage exploration results that do not materially impact near-term production.

Repricing Catalyst

The successful execution of an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for its North American gold assets, planned for late 2026, which aims to surface value for shareholders. The market is also watching for sustained free cash flow generation to support the new dividend policy, which targets a payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow.

What B Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Press Release, February 5, 2026
Gold Mining
$14416000.0B TTM (85% of Total) · 1637% Margin
What It Is

Gold in the form of doré bars, which are then refined into bullion. Key producing assets include the Nevada Gold Mines complex, Loulo-Gounkoto (Mali), and Pueblo Viejo (Dominican Republic).

Who Pays & How

Global financial institutions, central banks, and commodity traders purchase gold for investment purposes, as a store of value, and for use in jewelry and electronics. Sales are made at the prevailing market spot price.

Per-ounce sale at market spot price at the time of delivery.
Competition
Newmont Corporation
Newmont became the world's largest gold producer after its acquisition of Goldcorp in 2019, giving it a larger production scale.
Barrick's moat is its portfolio of Tier-One gold assets, defined as mines with a life of over 10 years, low costs, and significant production scale, which provide resilience through commodity cycles.
Copper Mining
$2544000.0B TTM (15% of Total) · 3.61% Margin
What It Is

Copper concentrate. Key producing assets are Lumwana (Zambia), Jabal Sayid (Saudi Arabia), and Zaldívar (Chile).

Who Pays & How

Global commodity traders and industrial smelters purchase copper concentrate for use in construction, electronics, and transportation. Sales are made at the prevailing LME/COMEX market price.

Per-pound/tonne sale at market spot price at the time of delivery.
Competition
Freeport-McMoRan, Codelco
These are among the world's largest copper producers with massive scale and dedicated copper assets.
Barrick's copper assets are often co-located with gold deposits (e.g. Reko Diq), providing some diversification and economies of scale. The focus is on assets that meet their Tier-One criteria.
B Evolution: Price Return by Era
1983–2018 · The Munk Era: Growth Through Acquisition
Building a Global Gold Giant
Founded by Peter Munk in 1983, Barrick grew rapidly through a series of major acquisitions, including Placer Dome, to become the world's largest gold producer. This era was defined by a focus on growing gold production volume, often through debt-fueled M&A, which left the company with a complex portfolio and a large debt burden.
2019–2025 · The Bristow Era: Disciplined Operations
Tier-One Assets and Shareholder Returns +156.2% (in the year leading up to Feb 2026)
The 2019 all-stock merger with Randgold Resources brought in CEO Mark Bristow, who instituted a new philosophy focused on owning and operating only 'Tier-One' assets. This era was characterized by divesting non-core mines, aggressively paying down debt, and shifting the focus from production growth to maximizing free cash flow and shareholder returns.
2026–Present · Portfolio Optimization & Growth
Surfacing Value and Funding the Future
Entering 2026, after achieving record cash flows, the focus shifts to optimizing the portfolio to surface more value, highlighted by the planned IPO of its North American assets. The challenge is to manage declining production and rising costs at existing assets while funding the next generation of large-scale growth projects like Reko Diq.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. No earnings data available for catalyst assessment.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
6 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · -
2 Momentum Pausing
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed
5 Volatility Expanded
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling
7 Earnings Reaction History N/A
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars