Barrick Mining (B)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $50.96 | Market Cap: $85.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Barrick Mining (B)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $50.96Market Cap: $85.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Key risksB key risks include [1] geopolitical and jurisdictional instability in key operating countries such as Mali, Show more. | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194% |
| Key risksB key risks include [1] geopolitical and jurisdictional instability in key operating countries such as Mali, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Soaring Gold Prices: The price of gold itself experienced a significant uptrend, with continuous gains in 2025, climbing as much as 55% and surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October 2025. This robust macroeconomic environment for gold, which reached an all-time high of $5608.35 per troy ounce in January 2026, directly benefited Barrick Mining as a primary gold producer.
2. Record Financial Performance: Barrick Mining reported exceptional financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. The company delivered a record operating cash flow of US$2.73 billion and free cash flow of US$1.62 billion in Q4 2025, driven by higher realized gold prices and strong operational execution. For the full year 2025, net earnings per share increased by 140% to US$2.93, and free cash flow surged by 194% to US$3.87 billion compared to 2024.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.7% change in B stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.39 | 50.74 | 56.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,824 | 16,956 | 22.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.0% | 29.4% | 47.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.1 | 17.1 | -14.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,716 | 1,683 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 56.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 24.7% | 55.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 144.7% change in B stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.74 | 50.74 | 144.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,305 | 16,956 | 27.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.5% | 29.4% | 68.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.4 | 17.1 | 11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,725 | 1,683 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 144.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 144.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 30.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.3% | 40.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 219.2% change in B stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.90 | 50.74 | 219.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,336 | 16,956 | 37.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 29.4% | 123.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 17.1 | -0.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,752 | 1,683 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 219.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 219.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.1% | 35.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 180.3% change in B stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.11 | 50.74 | 180.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,549 | 16,956 | 46.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 29.4% | 79.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.9 | 17.1 | 1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,768 | 1,683 | 5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 180.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 180.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 24.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 33.1% | 36.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| B Return | -13% | -7% | 8% | -12% | 187% | 17% | 154% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -10% | 23% | 19% | 119% | 38% | 318% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| B Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 92% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 43% | 58% | 48% | 78% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| B Max Drawdown | -21% | -30% | -16% | -22% | -0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -35% | -14% | -18% | -8% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEM, FCX, AEM, SCCO, KGC. See B Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | B | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,023 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 195.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEM, FCX, AEM, SCCO, KGC
In The Past
Barrick Mining's stock fell -48.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -48.8% loss requires a 95.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Barrick Mining (B)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Barrick Mining:
- It's like the ExxonMobil of gold mining.
- Think of it as the Shell of precious metals.
- It's like the De Beers of gold.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gold: A precious metal primarily used for investment, jewelry, and industrial applications.
- Copper: An industrial metal widely used in electrical wiring, plumbing, and construction.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Barrick Gold Corporation (TSX: B; NYSE: GOLD) is a major global gold and copper producer. As a company that extracts and processes raw commodities, Barrick primarily sells its products into global markets rather than directly to end-user consumers or a limited number of publicly disclosed major customers.
Due to the nature of commodity sales, where gold doré, refined gold, and copper concentrate/cathodes are sold on global spot and forward markets, specific names of major customer companies are generally not publicly disclosed by Barrick or similar mining companies. Sales typically occur to a diverse and continually changing group of buyers, and these relationships are often governed by commercial confidentiality agreements.
However, the primary types of companies that purchase Barrick's products include:
- Bullion Banks and Financial Institutions: These entities purchase gold for investment products, hedging, trading, and storage. They act as intermediaries in the global gold market. Examples of large bullion banks (though not direct "customers" identifiable for Barrick specifically) include JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HSBC), and UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS).
- Metal Refiners and Smelters: These companies further process Barrick's gold doré (unrefined gold bars) into higher purity products (e.g., London Good Delivery bars) and copper concentrate into refined copper cathodes. Their business is to refine raw materials for various industrial and investment purposes.
- Commodity Trading Houses and Industrial Users: Large commodity trading firms facilitate the global movement of raw materials. Additionally, some industrial users, such as manufacturers utilizing gold in electronics or jewelry, or companies requiring copper for electrical components, construction, or automotive applications, may acquire metals through these channels or directly from refiners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)
- Komatsu Ltd. (OTCPK: KMTUY)
- Sandvik AB (OTCPK: SDVKY)
- Epiroc AB (OTCPK: EPIAF)
- Orica Limited (OTCQX: OCRAF)
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mark Hill, Group COO and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer
Mark Hill was appointed Group COO and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer of Barrick in September 2025. He previously served as the executive responsible for the Latin America and Asia Pacific region, a role he assumed in January 2019. Hill is a seasoned mining executive with 30 years of experience, having joined Barrick in 2006. His experience includes strategy, corporate development, and leading major projects globally, and he was integral in the initial decision to undertake exploration at the Fourmile gold project in Nevada.
Graham Shuttleworth, Senior Executive Vice-President, Chief Financial Officer
Graham Shuttleworth has been the Chief Financial Officer and Senior Executive Vice President of Barrick since 2019. He is a chartered accountant with over 29 years of experience in the mining industry. Prior to joining Barrick, he served as the Financial Director and Chief Financial Officer of Randgold Resources from 2007. Before his time at Randgold, he was the Managing Director and Head of Metals and Mining for the Americas in the global investment banking division at HSBC.
Mark Bristow, Former President and Chief Executive Officer (until September 2025)
Mark Bristow served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Barrick Gold Corporation from 2019 until September 2025. He founded Randgold Resources in 1995 and served as its Chief Executive Officer, leading its growth into a major international gold mining business listed on the London Stock Exchange. Randgold Resources was acquired by Barrick in an all-stock deal for US$6.5 billion in 2018, leading to the creation of one of the world's largest gold producers. Following the merger, Bristow restructured and restrategized Barrick and was a key driver in combining the Nevada assets of Barrick and Newmont, forming Nevada Gold Mines. He also founded Rockwell Resources International in 2006, a diamond mining company, and is chairman of Midway Resources International, a private E&P start-up.
George Joannou, Chief Development Officer
George Joannou was appointed Chief Development Officer of Barrick in November 2025. He had previously held the position of Senior Vice President, Strategic Matters since 2014. Joannou joined Barrick in 2002 as an accountant and has also served as Assistant Treasurer, CFO Australia Pacific, and head of Planning and Capital Allocation. He is a Chartered Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree.
Poupak Bahamin, Chief Legal Officer
Poupak Bahamin was appointed Chief Legal Officer of Barrick in November 2025. She joined Barrick in 2020 as Deputy General Counsel and was promoted to General Counsel in April 2022. With over 30 years of legal experience, Bahamin has practiced law in Canada, France, and the United States, and previously served as a partner and Co-Head of Mining US at Norton Rose Fulbright.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Barrick Mining (symbol: B) are primarily related to commodity price volatility, geopolitical and jurisdictional challenges, and operational and project execution complexities.
- Volatility in Commodity Prices: Barrick Mining's profitability and cash flow are strongly influenced by global market prices for gold and copper. Significant and sustained drops in these prices would negatively affect the company's financial performance.
- Geopolitical and Jurisdictional Risks: The company operates in various countries, some of which are politically volatile. These risks include the potential for nationalization of resources, unfavorable changes in government regulations, and political instability in regions such as Mexico, Mali, Pakistan (Balochistan), Papua New Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- Operational and Project Execution Challenges: Risks inherent in mining operations include the accuracy of mineral reserve estimates, managing capital and operating costs, potential delays or interruptions in project construction and ramp-up, and challenges in large-scale construction. Additionally, environmental hazards, industrial accidents, and the physical and transitional risks associated with climate change (e.g., changes to rainfall patterns, energy supply) pose material operational challenges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Increased and evolving environmental, social, and governance (ESG) pressures and regulations.
This includes:
- Stricter environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions, water usage, biodiversity protection, mine closure and reclamation costs), making it significantly more difficult and expensive to permit, develop, and operate new mines.
- Heightened scrutiny and demands related to social license to operate, community engagement, indigenous rights, and labor practices, leading to potential project delays, operational disruptions, and reputational damage.
- Growing investor and stakeholder demands for transparency, ethical supply chains, and accountability, potentially increasing the cost of capital or limiting access to financing for companies perceived as having poor ESG performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Barrick Mining (symbol: B) primarily produces gold and copper.
Gold
- Global Market Size: The global gold market size was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach around USD 457.91 billion by 2032 or USD 400 billion by the end of 2030.
- Regional Market Share (2023/2024): Asia Pacific dominated the global gold market, holding a 66.25% share in 2023, valued at USD 182.88 billion, and USD 194.01 billion in 2024. North America accounted for 15% of the market, and Europe held a 10% share.
Copper
- Global Market Size: The global copper market size was estimated at approximately USD 241.88 billion in 2024, with other estimates ranging from USD 277.92 billion to USD 333.15 billion in the same year. It is projected to reach around USD 339.95 billion by 2030 or USD 548.20 billion by 2034.
- Regional Market Share (2024): Asia Pacific dominated the copper market, holding the largest revenue share of 74.7%, or approximately 55.6% and over 39% of the revenue share. The Asia Pacific copper market size is valued at USD 136.16 billion in 2025 and is expected to surpass USD 213.80 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Barrick Mining (symbol: B) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market conditions:
- Increased Gold Production from Key Growth Projects: Barrick is advancing several significant gold projects that are expected to contribute to increased production. The Pueblo Viejo expansion in the Dominican Republic is progressing towards becoming a substantial producer. The Goldrush mine in Nevada is ramping up, targeting 400,000 ounces per annum by 2028. Additionally, the adjacent Fourmile project in Nevada is anticipated to become a "world-class Tier One asset," with a preliminary economic assessment outlining potential annual production of up to 750,000 ounces of gold for 25 years.
- Significant Growth in Copper Production: The company is strategically expanding its copper business, positioning it as a future core asset due to surging demand driven by the global energy transition. Key projects include the Lumwana Super Pit Expansion in Zambia, which is expected to double the mine's production over a 30-plus-year life. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase by the end of 2028. Barrick aims for a 30% growth in gold equivalent ounces by the end of the decade, with copper playing a crucial role.
- Sustained Favorable Gold and Copper Prices: Higher realized gold prices have significantly boosted Barrick's revenue and profit in recent quarters. Analysts forecast continued strong gold prices, with some predicting $3,500 per ounce. Similarly, the rising demand for copper is expected to maintain favorable copper prices, directly translating into increased revenue per unit sold for Barrick.
- Operational Optimization, Exploration Success, and Reserve Growth: Barrick's commitment to operational efficiency and cost management is expected to lead to declining operating costs. Investments in infrastructure and plant reliability, such as the Gold Quarry roaster expansion, are designed to increase capacity and improve efficiencies. Furthermore, Barrick has a strong track record of replacing its reserves through successful exploration programs and is forecasting substantial growth in both its gold and copper reserves, ensuring a robust pipeline for long-term sustainable production.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Share Repurchases
- Over the past three years, Barrick returned $3.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, resulting in a 3% reduction in outstanding shares.
- In February 2025, Barrick's Board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion.
- As of September 30, 2025, the company had completed the $1.0 billion repurchase, and the Board approved a $500 million increase to the program, totaling $1.5 billion authorized through February 2026.
- Share Issuance
- Barrick's strong financial position has allowed it to invest in future projects without the need to issue new shares or take on unnecessary debt.
- Inbound Investments
- Berkshire Hathaway acquired $562 million in Barrick shares during the second quarter of 2020, becoming the company's eleventh-largest shareholder.
- Outbound Investments
- Barrick sold its 50% stake in the Donlin Gold Project in Alaska for $1 billion in cash in April 2025.
- The company is divesting its Hemlo operation in Ontario and its Tongon interests and exploration properties in Côte d'Ivoire, with total gross proceeds from non-core asset sales in 2025 expected to be approximately $2.6 billion.
- Barrick acquired a 45% stake in Argentina's Veladero mine, securing access to 9 million ounces of reserves, as mentioned in Q1 2025.
- Capital Expenditures
- Barrick's 2025 capital budget is $1.2 billion, with 60% allocated to sustaining projects and 40% to high-return expansion initiatives.
- Total consolidated capital expenditures in Q3 2025 reached $943 million, a 28% increase year-over-year, with project capital expenditures rising to $532 million.
- Significant growth projects include the Lumwana Super Pit Expansion, with construction commencing in 2025 and an estimated total capital cost of $2 billion, and the Reko Diq project, with Phase 1 capital costs estimated at $5.6-$6.0 billion (100% basis), with Barrick's share of equity contribution expected to be $1.8-$2.0 billion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 8.8% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.2% | 20.2% | -0.5% |
| 05312017 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -14.9% | -19.6% | -30.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 111.9 |
| Rev LTM | 14,645 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,404 |
| FCF LTM | 3,674 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,026 |
| CFO LTM | 6,214 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,882 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 26.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 48.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 111.9 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 24.1 |
| P/CFO | 15.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 43.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 76.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 180.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 233.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 49.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 76.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 155.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 161.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlin | 2,760 | 2,848 | 2,687 | 2,952 | 1,862 |
| Cortez | 1,737 | 1,316 | 1,485 | 1,409 | 1,325 |
| Other Mines | 1,591 | 1,553 | 2,659 | 3,124 | |
| Loulo-Gounkoto | 1,335 | 1,236 | 1,249 | 1,208 | 1,007 |
| Pueblo Viejo | 1,118 | 1,303 | 1,514 | 1,613 | 1,409 |
| Turquoise Ridge | 1,008 | 814 | 987 | 960 | 688 |
| Lumwana | 795 | 868 | |||
| Kibali | 670 | 598 | 661 | 648 | 505 |
| North Mara | 591 | 570 | 552 | 571 | 462 |
| Bulyanhulu | 442 | 463 | 361 | 240 | 53 |
| Other revenue | 20 | 42 | 109 | 185 | |
| Share of equity investee | -670 | -598 | -661 | -648 | -505 |
| Veladero | 382 | 333 | 386 | ||
| Other Mines - Gold | 2,122 | ||||
| Porgera | 403 | ||||
| Total | 11,397 | 11,013 | 11,985 | 12,595 | 9,717 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlin | 938 | 1,114 | 1,189 | 1,297 | 531 |
| Cortez | 542 | 450 | 547 | 628 | 550 |
| Loulo-Gounkoto | 484 | 426 | 474 | 449 | 238 |
| Pueblo Viejo | 316 | 461 | 759 | 873 | 676 |
| Other Mines | 286 | 109 | 809 | 926 | 149 |
| Turquoise Ridge | 280 | 160 | 371 | 375 | 259 |
| Kibali | 243 | 142 | 278 | 244 | 108 |
| North Mara | 165 | 209 | 254 | 254 | 146 |
| Bulyanhulu | 147 | 140 | 147 | 31 | -19 |
| Lumwana | 37 | 180 | |||
| Other revenue | 20 | 42 | |||
| Gain (loss) on currency translation | -93 | ||||
| Share of equity investee | -243 | -142 | -278 | -244 | -108 |
| Impairment reversals (charges) | -312 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation and project expenses not attributable to segments | -249 | -210 | |||
| Finance costs, net (includes non-segment accretion) | -265 | -329 | |||
| General and administrative expenses | -159 | -185 | |||
| Loss on non-hedge derivatives | 7 | 2 | |||
| Other income (expense) not attributable to segments | 396 | ||||
| Veladero | 118 | 114 | 57 | ||
| Porgera | 113 | ||||
| Total | 2,810 | 3,021 | 4,341 | 4,552 | 2,700 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $50.74 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 86.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $47.19 | $32.43 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.5% | 56.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.1% | 41.7% |
| Downside Capture | 101.54 | 18.41 |
| Upside Capture | 237.38 | 123.25 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 26.3% | 23.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.69 | 1.63 | 1.17 | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| Up Beta | -2.63 | -0.59 | 1.70 | 1.50 | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Down Beta | -1.76 | -1.09 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Up Capture | 331% | 251% | 391% | 340% | 142% | 55% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 27 | 40 | 82 | 153 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 291% | 180% | 131% | 69% | 28% | 81% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 14 | 21 | 41 | 95 | 339 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 184.4% | 41.7% | 2.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 22.4% | 20.7% | 0.87 | 36.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 23.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | 70.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | 36.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 17.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.2% | 44.9% | -0.37 | 19.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 23.3% | 34.9% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.3% | 18.9% | 0.38 | 37.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 70.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 31.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 57.0% | 0.30 | 14.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 17.1% | 37.2% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.3% | 20.6% | 0.53 | 25.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 17.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 70.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 25.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 19.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/17/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/18/2022 | 40-F |
B Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 4.74x is exceptionally attractive and places the stock in the highest conviction tier. The analysis indicates the market is overly focused on manageable, near-term operational issues (Anti-Alpha) while significantly undervaluing a powerful, intact secular growth driver (Alpha Driver) in a company with a widening competitive moat. This creates a compelling opportunity where the potential reward substantially outweighs the calibrated risk.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityThe company's revenue and profitability are described as almost entirely dependent on the volatile and unpredictable spot prices of gold and copper. The business model is defined as a 'Commodity Extractor (Price-Taker)', fitting the Type C archetype perfectly.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on Barrick's superior ability to capitalize on bullish structural trends in both gold and copper. With gold demand driven by geopolitical risk and central bank buying, and copper facing a supply deficit due to the energy transition and AI, Barrick's structurally lower cost base versus key rival Newmont provides significant operating leverage, enabling outsized margin expansion and free cash flow generation as commodity prices rise.
- Structural market deficits identified, with gold prices forecast to reach $6,100-$6,300/oz and copper facing a 150,000+ ton deficit in 2026.
- Barrick maintains a unit cost advantage, with a guided AISC structurally lower than Newmont's ($1,760+/oz), ensuring superior profitability.
- Demonstrated high FCF conversion, turning approximately 50% of operating cash flow into free cash flow in FY2025, with FCF growing 194%.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is self-inflicted operational weakness that could neutralize the benefits of a strong macro backdrop. Despite record cash flows driven by high gold prices, the company has guided to lower production volumes and significantly higher All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for 2026. This combination of rising costs and falling output threatens to severely compress margins, even if gold prices remain elevated.
- FY26 Gold AISC is guided to a range of $1,760–$1,950/oz, a substantial increase from FY2025's $1,637/oz.
- FY26 gold production guidance of 2.9-3.25M oz is flat to down from FY25's 3.26M oz, which itself was down 17% from 2024.
- The stock reacted negatively to its latest earnings report, falling despite record cash flow, indicating investor focus has shifted to these negative operational forward indicators.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) | Quarterly results below the midpoint of the $1,760-$1,950/oz annual guidance. | This is the primary Anti-Alpha. Demonstrating cost control is critical to proving the margin compression fears are overblown and restoring confidence. |
| Gold Production Volume | Quarterly production that annualizes above the midpoint of the 2.9-3.25M oz guidance. | Stabilizing and reversing the production decline is necessary to prove the operational issues are contained and to maximize revenue capture in a rising price environment. |
| Realized Gold & Copper Prices | Sustained realized prices >10% above the assumptions used in company guidance. | The Alpha Driver is contingent on the commodity bull market. Outsized price realization can offset cost pressures and is the primary catalyst for an earnings beat and share re-rating. |
Price Supercycle vs. Operational Decay
BULL VIEW
Elevated gold prices provide immense margin leverage and free cash flow, making operational headwinds manageable. The stock is a prime beneficiary of the commodity supercycle.
CORE TENSION
Can record-high gold prices and massive cash flow generation mask deteriorating core operations of declining production and sharply rising costs?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Despite record Q4 cash flow, the stock fell over 8% after the Feb 5, 2026 earnings release, reacting to lower 2026 production guidance and significantly higher cost forecasts.
BEAR VIEW
Declining production (FY25: -17%), falling reserves, and surging cost guidance (FY26 AISC +8-19%) reveal a fundamentally weakening business reliant on fragile spot prices.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April/Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Gold All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) relative to the guided range of $1,760-$1,950/oz. |
Feb 23-26, 2026 | BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference Watch: Management commentary on North American IPO valuation and timeline, and Reko Diq project review. |
Anytime (Q1-Q2 2026) | Reko Diq Project Update Watch: Formal announcement regarding project delay, capital budget increase, or halt due to security review. |
Monthly (Q2-Q3 2026) | China Industrial Production & PMI Data Watch: China's Manufacturing PMI. A sustained trend below 50 signals contraction and weakening copper demand. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-11 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Stock fell notably as Q2 results likely reflected ongoing operational challenges and cost pressures, continuing a trend of volatile quarterly performance. | -2.52% $23.19 -> $22.61 |
2025-09-19 | Investor Day / Strategic Update Details: Stock surged on a likely investor event where management outlined a positive long-term outlook and strategic initiatives, boosting market confidence. | +9.71% $29.94 -> $32.84 |
2025-11-10 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Stock surged after Q3 results showed a sequential recovery in production and a beat on earnings expectations, signaling operational improvements in the second half of the year. | +5.17% $32.94 -> $34.65 |
2025-12-16 | Strategic Update: Mali Resolution Details: Barrick announced it regained control of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali after months of dispute, resetting government relations and outlining a production ramp-up for 2026. | +1.49% $42.93 -> $43.57 |
2026-01-28 | Stock Hits Multi-Year High Details: Shares reached a 52-week high as gold prices surged, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and anticipation of a strong earnings report. | +1.55% $52.17 -> $52.98 |
2026-02-05 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Despite reporting record quarterly cash flow and beating estimates, the stock plummeted on weak 2026 guidance for lower production and sharply higher costs. | -7.16% $47.36 -> $43.97 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive volatility regime (4.18x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, low revenue visibility, and deteriorating operational metrics mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
AEM
INDUSTRYUnlike Barrick, AEM offers a more stable geopolitical risk profile with assets primarily in North America and Australia, avoiding the specific security risks at the Reko Diq project.
FCX
SECTOROffers pure-play exposure to the copper secular growth story (energy transition, AI) without the complexities of gold mining operations and pricing.
Following a record year of cash flow in FY2025 driven by high realized gold prices, Barrick now faces market scrutiny over its 2026 guidance, which signals lower production volumes and higher costs.
Filter all news through the lens of operational execution versus 2026 guidance and capital allocation discipline.
Quarterly production volumes beating the 2.90–3.25M oz gold guidance range; All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) coming in below the $1,760-$1,950/oz guided range; Positive progress on the North American assets IPO; Successful ramp-up of growth projects.
Production misses or cost overruns at key mines; Geopolitical instability impacting operations in Mali, Pakistan, or Zambia; A sustained decline in gold spot prices below the cost base; Negative revisions to the North American assets IPO plan.
Minor week-to-week fluctuations in the spot price of gold (the thesis is based on beating cost/production guidance within the existing price environment); Analyst price target changes not backed by a change in production or cost estimates; Early-stage exploration results that do not materially impact near-term production.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful execution of an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for its North American gold assets, planned for late 2026, which aims to surface value for shareholders. The market is also watching for sustained free cash flow generation to support the new dividend policy, which targets a payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow.
Gold Mining
$14416000.0B TTM (85% of Total) · 1637% MarginWhat It Is
Gold in the form of doré bars, which are then refined into bullion. Key producing assets include the Nevada Gold Mines complex, Loulo-Gounkoto (Mali), and Pueblo Viejo (Dominican Republic).
Who Pays & How
Global financial institutions, central banks, and commodity traders purchase gold for investment purposes, as a store of value, and for use in jewelry and electronics. Sales are made at the prevailing market spot price.
Competition
Copper Mining
$2544000.0B TTM (15% of Total) · 3.61% MarginWhat It Is
Copper concentrate. Key producing assets are Lumwana (Zambia), Jabal Sayid (Saudi Arabia), and Zaldívar (Chile).
Who Pays & How
Global commodity traders and industrial smelters purchase copper concentrate for use in construction, electronics, and transportation. Sales are made at the prevailing LME/COMEX market price.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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