Barrick Mining (B)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $38.54 | Market Cap: $64.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Barrick Mining (B)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $38.54Market Cap: $64.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 6.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% | Key risksB key risks include [1] geopolitical and jurisdictional instability in key operating countries such as Mali, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 6.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106% |
| Key risksB key risks include [1] geopolitical and jurisdictional instability in key operating countries such as Mali, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Barrick's 2026 gold production guidance was lower than the previous year, impacting investor outlook.
The company projected gold production for 2026 to be between 2.90 million and 3.25 million ounces, a slight decrease from the 3.26 million ounces produced in 2025, which was perceived as "lighter than some hoped" by the market.
2. A notable decline in global gold prices occurred in March 2026.
Gold prices experienced a significant downturn, with a 5.6% collapse on March 19, 2026, reaching $4,614 per ounce. This marked an 11.5% decrease from a recent high of $5,242 per ounce on March 10, 2026, leading to a negative impact on gold mining stocks.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in B stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.00 | 38.59 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,604 | 16,956 | 16.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.5% | 29.4% | 20.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 13.0 | -33.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,703 | 1,683 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 41.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.0% | 67.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.8% change in B stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.30 | 38.59 | 46.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,824 | 16,956 | 22.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.0% | 29.4% | 47.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.3 | 13.0 | -20.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,716 | 1,683 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 46.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 38.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 7.1% | 47.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 122.6% change in B stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.34 | 38.59 | 122.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,336 | 16,956 | 37.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 29.4% | 123.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.7 | 13.0 | -30.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,752 | 1,683 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 122.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 122.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.4% | 40.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 156.9% change in B stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.02 | 38.59 | 156.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,549 | 16,956 | 46.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 29.4% | 79.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.0 | 13.0 | -7.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,768 | 1,683 | 5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 156.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| B | 156.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 25.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 26.8% | 37.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| B Return | -13% | -7% | 8% | -12% | 187% | -13% | 89% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -10% | 23% | 19% | 119% | 6% | 223% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| B Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 92% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 43% | 58% | 48% | 78% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| B Max Drawdown | -21% | -30% | -16% | -22% | -0% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -35% | -14% | -18% | -8% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEM, FCX, AEM, SCCO, KGC. See B Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | B | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,023 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 195.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEM, FCX, AEM, SCCO, KGC
In The Past
Barrick Mining's stock fell -48.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -48.8% loss requires a 95.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Barrick Mining (B)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Barrick Mining is like the ExxonMobil of gold and copper mining.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gold: Barrick Gold Corporation primarily explores for, develops, and produces gold from its mineral properties globally.
- Copper: The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of copper deposits.
- Nickel: Barrick also explores for nickel deposits as part of its mineral property development activities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Barrick Mining (symbol: B) sells primarily to other companies.
As a global producer of commodities such as gold, copper, and nickel, Barrick Gold Corporation sells its products on international markets to a diverse range of industrial buyers, refiners, and financial institutions. Due to the nature of commodity trading, where products are often sold on exchanges or through numerous supply agreements, and to maintain competitive advantage, Barrick Gold Corporation does not publicly disclose the names of specific major customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The search results indicate some recent changes in Barrick Gold Corporation's leadership. Mark Bristow was the President and CEO until September 2025, when Mark Hill was appointed as Group Chief Operating Officer and Interim President & CEO. Then in February 2026, Mark Hill was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer. Helen Cai was appointed Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective in March 2026. Graham Shuttleworth was previously the CFO. Given the current date (March 14, 2026), the information about Mark Hill as CEO and Helen Cai as CFO should be the most up-to-date. Let's gather the information for the top 5 management members, including the current CEO and CFO. **CEO:** Mark Hill * **Title:** President and Chief Executive Officer * **Background:** Mark Hill was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Barrick in February 2026, following his appointment as Group Chief Operating Officer and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer in September 2025. He was previously the executive responsible for the Latin America and Asia Pacific region, a role he assumed in January 2019. Hill is a seasoned mining executive with 30 years of experience and joined Barrick in 2006. He has experience in strategy, corporate development, and leading major projects across the world. **CFO:** Helen Cai * **Title:** Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer * **Background:** Helen Cai was appointed Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective in March 2026. She has served on the Barrick Board since November 2021 and brings over two decades of experience in equity research, corporate finance, strategic planning, capital markets, and M&A across the mining, industrial, and technology sectors, primarily with Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corporation (CICC). Now, I need to find up to three other management members. I will look for recent executive appointments or prominent roles. Based on search result and, James J. McGuire and Woo Lee were recently appointed. George Joannou is also listed as Chief Development Officer. 1. **James J. McGuire** * **Title:** Chief Legal and Policy Officer * **Background:** James J. McGuire was appointed Chief Legal and Policy Officer in February 2026. He has over 30 years of legal experience representing leading corporations, financial institutions, and individuals. Prior to joining Barrick, he was a Litigation Partner and Managing Partner of the New York office at Greenspoon Marder LLP. He also served as a federal criminal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York. 2. **Woo Lee** * **Title:** Chief Global Affairs Officer * **Background:** Woo Lee was appointed Chief Global Affairs Officer in March 2026. He joined Barrick in 2014 and most recently served as Senior Vice President and Head of Government & Corporate Affairs, Asia Pacific. He has over 30 years of experience in Washington, China, and East Asia, and previously worked as a U.S. diplomat in the State Department, holding senior posts at American embassies and consulates across the APAC region. 3. **George Joannou** * **Title:** Chief Development Officer * **Background:** George Joannou was appointed Chief Development Officer of Barrick in November 2025. He had been Senior Vice President, Strategic Matters since 2014. George joined Barrick in 2002 as an accountant and has also held the roles of Assistant Treasurer, CFO Australia Pacific, and head of Planning and Capital Allocation. He is a Chartered Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. The user specifically asked for information on whether the CEO or CFO founded or managed other companies, or sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms. * **Mark Hill (CEO):** The search results do not explicitly state if he founded or managed other companies outside of Barrick. His background primarily mentions his experience within Barrick and prior to that "30 years of experience" in mining, but no details of founding or selling companies. * **Helen Cai (CFO):** Her background mentions experience with Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corporation (CICC), but no information about founding, selling companies, or managing companies backed by private equity firms. The prompt requires HTML output. I will structure the response accordingly. Double-checking the company: The company is Barrick Mining Corporation, which is Barrick Gold Corporation that recently changed its name and NYSE symbol to 'B'. The background information provided in the prompt about gold and copper reserves, founding year, and headquarters matches Barrick Gold Corporation. The management team found is for Barrick Gold Corporation. So the company is correct. I need to make sure I include up to 5 members and definitely the CEO and CFO. I have Mark Hill (CEO), Helen Cai (CFO), James J. McGuire, Woo Lee, and George Joannou. This is 5 members.AI Analysis | Feedback
Barrick Mining (formerly Barrick Gold Corporation) faces several significant risks inherent to the global mining industry, amplified by its extensive operations in diverse geopolitical and environmental landscapes.The most prominent risk is political and geopolitical instability, coupled with resource nationalism. Barrick operates in numerous countries, many of which are prone to political upheaval, changes in mining regulations, and disputes over taxation and resource ownership. This risk has manifested in severe ways, such as the temporary suspension of operations and seizure of gold stocks at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali due to a revenue dispute with the Malian government, resulting in a reported $1 billion revenue write-off. Ongoing negotiations regarding tax and royalty frameworks in the Dominican Republic and the need for stable government support for projects like Reko Diq in Pakistan further underscore this vulnerability, which can directly impact license security, operational stability, and financial performance.
Another key risk is related to environmental and social impacts, particularly concerning waste management and water contamination. Barrick has faced accusations of extensive environmental degradation, notably regarding riverine tailings disposal at the Porgera mine in Papua New Guinea, leading to heavy metals contamination. In Argentina, the Veladero mine has been linked to multiple toxic spills involving cyanide, arsenic, and mercury, forcing local communities to rely on bottled water and raising human rights concerns. Furthermore, the proposed Naranjo Tailings Storage Facility in the Dominican Republic has sparked significant opposition from local communities due to environmental and human rights concerns, with an estimated "Extreme" consequence (over 100 fatalities) in the event of a dam failure. Such incidents can lead to operational disruptions, legal actions, and severe reputational damage.
Finally, operational inconsistency and challenges in cost management present a significant business risk. While gold and copper prices are critical drivers of profitability, Barrick's financial performance is also heavily influenced by its ability to manage operational costs, specifically its All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC). The company has experienced operational inconsistencies and has been noted for having slightly higher AISC compared to some top-tier peers, indicating challenges in maintaining optimal operational efficiency. Poor capital allocation decisions, coupled with unexpected disruptions such as labor issues or energy cost fluctuations, can further impact production volumes and overall profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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For Barrick Mining (symbol: B), whose main products include gold, copper, and nickel, the addressable markets are as follows:
- Gold: The global gold market was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030. Asia-Pacific dominated the global gold market in 2025 with a market share of 65.54%.
- Copper: The global copper market size was approximately USD 291.12 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 442.04 billion by 2034. Asia-Pacific held 55.6% of the global market share in 2024.
- Nickel: The global nickel market size was USD 47.8 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 78.3 billion by 2034. Asia Pacific dominated the nickel market with an 83.40% share in 2025.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to B.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 11.7% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -18.6% | -18.6% | -18.6% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.9% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.5% |
| 05312017 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -14.9% | -19.6% | -30.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 88.8 |
| Rev LTM | 15,188 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,752 |
| FCF LTM | 3,647 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,026 |
| CFO LTM | 6,214 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,882 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 26.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 48.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 88.8 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -22.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 94.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 131.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 25.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 84.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 82.9% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| ANDA090977 | LANTHANUM CARBONATE | lanthanum carbonate | tablet, chewable | 1272022 | 20.4% | -15.7% | 7.8% | -12.8% | 128.4% |
| ANDA090095 | DUTASTERIDE | dutasteride | capsule | 12212010 | -2.6% | -14.1% | -9.5% | -33.0% | -3.0% |
| ANDA078965 | NORETHINDRONE AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL AND FERROUS FUMARATE | ethinyl estradiol | tablet | 8052010 | 15.7% | 14.5% | 8.4% | -21.5% | 17.9% |
| ANDA079193 | ESTRADIOL AND NORETHINDRONE ACETATE | estradiol | tablet | 5112010 | -4.8% | 11.7% | 0.5% | -15.8% | 10.3% |
| ANDA090360 | BUPRENORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE | buprenorphine hydrochloride | tablet | 5072010 | 1.8% | 15.8% | 10.7% | -9.4% | 18.2% |
| ANDA076237 | FLUOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE | fluoxetine hydrochloride | capsule, delayed rel pellets | 3242010 | 20.7% | 27.7% | 40.3% | 20.3% | 35.9% |
| ANDA090591 | PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE | phentermine hydrochloride | capsule | 3182010 | 13.2% | 16.2% | 25.7% | 13.1% | 27.2% |
| ANDA090470 | PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE | phentermine hydrochloride | tablet | 8312009 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 36.4% | 49.4% | 46.5% |
| ANDA078804 | ASPIRIN AND DIPYRIDAMOLE | aspirin | capsule, extended release | 8142009 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 27.7% | 48.9% | 49.9% |
| ANDA078515 | DROSPIRENONE AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL | drospirenone | tablet | 3302009 | 8.6% | 13.1% | 18.2% | 63.3% | 58.4% |
| ... | |||||||||
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlin | 2,760 | 2,848 | 2,687 | 2,952 | 1,862 |
| Cortez | 1,737 | 1,316 | 1,485 | 1,409 | 1,325 |
| Other Mines | 1,591 | 1,553 | 2,659 | 3,124 | |
| Loulo-Gounkoto | 1,335 | 1,236 | 1,249 | 1,208 | 1,007 |
| Pueblo Viejo | 1,118 | 1,303 | 1,514 | 1,613 | 1,409 |
| Turquoise Ridge | 1,008 | 814 | 987 | 960 | 688 |
| Lumwana | 795 | 868 | |||
| Kibali | 670 | 598 | 661 | 648 | 505 |
| North Mara | 591 | 570 | 552 | 571 | 462 |
| Bulyanhulu | 442 | 463 | 361 | 240 | 53 |
| Other revenue | 20 | 42 | 109 | 185 | |
| Share of equity investee | -670 | -598 | -661 | -648 | -505 |
| Veladero | 382 | 333 | 386 | ||
| Other Mines - Gold | 2,122 | ||||
| Porgera | 403 | ||||
| Total | 11,397 | 11,013 | 11,985 | 12,595 | 9,717 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlin | 938 | 1,114 | 1,189 | 1,297 | 531 |
| Cortez | 542 | 450 | 547 | 628 | 550 |
| Loulo-Gounkoto | 484 | 426 | 474 | 449 | 238 |
| Pueblo Viejo | 316 | 461 | 759 | 873 | 676 |
| Other Mines | 286 | 109 | 809 | 926 | 149 |
| Turquoise Ridge | 280 | 160 | 371 | 375 | 259 |
| Kibali | 243 | 142 | 278 | 244 | 108 |
| North Mara | 165 | 209 | 254 | 254 | 146 |
| Bulyanhulu | 147 | 140 | 147 | 31 | -19 |
| Lumwana | 37 | 180 | |||
| Other revenue | 20 | 42 | |||
| Gain (loss) on currency translation | -93 | ||||
| Share of equity investee | -243 | -142 | -278 | -244 | -108 |
| Impairment reversals (charges) | -312 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation and project expenses not attributable to segments | -249 | -210 | |||
| Finance costs, net (includes non-segment accretion) | -265 | -329 | |||
| General and administrative expenses | -159 | -185 | |||
| Loss on non-hedge derivatives | 7 | 2 | |||
| Other income (expense) not attributable to segments | 396 | ||||
| Veladero | 118 | 114 | 57 | ||
| Porgera | 113 | ||||
| Total | 2,810 | 3,021 | 4,341 | 4,552 | 2,700 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $38.59 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 64.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $46.00 | $34.82 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -16.1% | 10.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.4% | 43.9% |
| Downside Capture | 1.52 | 0.44 |
| Upside Capture | 236.44 | 128.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.2% | 26.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.86 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 1.27 | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| Up Beta | 0.09 | -0.65 | 0.02 | 0.94 | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Down Beta | 1.87 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| Up Capture | 250% | 303% | 264% | 363% | 141% | 68% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 29 | 42 | 81 | 156 | 411 |
| Down Capture | 231% | 132% | 101% | 102% | 25% | 78% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 92 | 332 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 105.2% | 43.8% | 1.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 14.6% | 20.9% | 0.55 | 40.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 26.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 73.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 34.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 20.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 20.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 16.5% | 35.3% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.7% | 18.9% | 0.25 | 38.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 26.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 71.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 30.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 28.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 14.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 12.1% | 37.2% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.1% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 26.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 18.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 70.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 25.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/17/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/18/2022 | 40-F |
B Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 4.74x is exceptionally attractive and places the stock in the highest conviction tier. The analysis indicates the market is overly focused on manageable, near-term operational issues (Anti-Alpha) while significantly undervaluing a powerful, intact secular growth driver (Alpha Driver) in a company with a widening competitive moat. This creates a compelling opportunity where the potential reward substantially outweighs the calibrated risk.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityThe company's revenue and profitability are described as almost entirely dependent on the volatile and unpredictable spot prices of gold and copper. The business model is defined as a 'Commodity Extractor (Price-Taker)', fitting the Type C archetype perfectly.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on Barrick's superior ability to capitalize on bullish structural trends in both gold and copper. With gold demand driven by geopolitical risk and central bank buying, and copper facing a supply deficit due to the energy transition and AI, Barrick's structurally lower cost base versus key rival Newmont provides significant operating leverage, enabling outsized margin expansion and free cash flow generation as commodity prices rise.
- Structural market deficits identified, with gold prices forecast to reach $6,100-$6,300/oz and copper facing a 150,000+ ton deficit in 2026.
- Barrick maintains a unit cost advantage, with a guided AISC structurally lower than Newmont's ($1,760+/oz), ensuring superior profitability.
- Demonstrated high FCF conversion, turning approximately 50% of operating cash flow into free cash flow in FY2025, with FCF growing 194%.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is self-inflicted operational weakness that could neutralize the benefits of a strong macro backdrop. Despite record cash flows driven by high gold prices, the company has guided to lower production volumes and significantly higher All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for 2026. This combination of rising costs and falling output threatens to severely compress margins, even if gold prices remain elevated.
- FY26 Gold AISC is guided to a range of $1,760–$1,950/oz, a substantial increase from FY2025's $1,637/oz.
- FY26 gold production guidance of 2.9-3.25M oz is flat to down from FY25's 3.26M oz, which itself was down 17% from 2024.
- The stock reacted negatively to its latest earnings report, falling despite record cash flow, indicating investor focus has shifted to these negative operational forward indicators.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) | Quarterly results below the midpoint of the $1,760-$1,950/oz annual guidance. | This is the primary Anti-Alpha. Demonstrating cost control is critical to proving the margin compression fears are overblown and restoring confidence. |
| Gold Production Volume | Quarterly production that annualizes above the midpoint of the 2.9-3.25M oz guidance. | Stabilizing and reversing the production decline is necessary to prove the operational issues are contained and to maximize revenue capture in a rising price environment. |
| Realized Gold & Copper Prices | Sustained realized prices >10% above the assumptions used in company guidance. | The Alpha Driver is contingent on the commodity bull market. Outsized price realization can offset cost pressures and is the primary catalyst for an earnings beat and share re-rating. |
Price Supercycle vs. Operational Decay
BULL VIEW
Elevated gold prices provide immense margin leverage and free cash flow, making operational headwinds manageable. The stock is a prime beneficiary of the commodity supercycle.
CORE TENSION
Can record-high gold prices and massive cash flow generation mask deteriorating core operations of declining production and sharply rising costs?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Despite record Q4 cash flow, the stock fell over 8% after the Feb 5, 2026 earnings release, reacting to lower 2026 production guidance and significantly higher cost forecasts.
BEAR VIEW
Declining production (FY25: -17%), falling reserves, and surging cost guidance (FY26 AISC +8-19%) reveal a fundamentally weakening business reliant on fragile spot prices.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April/Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Gold All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) relative to the guided range of $1,760-$1,950/oz. |
Feb 23-26, 2026 | BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference Watch: Management commentary on North American IPO valuation and timeline, and Reko Diq project review. |
Anytime (Q1-Q2 2026) | Reko Diq Project Update Watch: Formal announcement regarding project delay, capital budget increase, or halt due to security review. |
Monthly (Q2-Q3 2026) | China Industrial Production & PMI Data Watch: China's Manufacturing PMI. A sustained trend below 50 signals contraction and weakening copper demand. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-11 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Stock fell notably as Q2 results likely reflected ongoing operational challenges and cost pressures, continuing a trend of volatile quarterly performance. | -2.52% $23.19 -> $22.61 |
2025-09-19 | Investor Day / Strategic Update Details: Stock surged on a likely investor event where management outlined a positive long-term outlook and strategic initiatives, boosting market confidence. | +9.71% $29.94 -> $32.84 |
2025-11-10 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Stock surged after Q3 results showed a sequential recovery in production and a beat on earnings expectations, signaling operational improvements in the second half of the year. | +5.17% $32.94 -> $34.65 |
2025-12-16 | Strategic Update: Mali Resolution Details: Barrick announced it regained control of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali after months of dispute, resetting government relations and outlining a production ramp-up for 2026. | +1.49% $42.93 -> $43.57 |
2026-01-28 | Stock Hits Multi-Year High Details: Shares reached a 52-week high as gold prices surged, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and anticipation of a strong earnings report. | +1.55% $52.17 -> $52.98 |
2026-02-05 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Despite reporting record quarterly cash flow and beating estimates, the stock plummeted on weak 2026 guidance for lower production and sharply higher costs. | -7.16% $47.36 -> $43.97 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive volatility regime (4.18x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, low revenue visibility, and deteriorating operational metrics mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
AEM
INDUSTRYUnlike Barrick, AEM offers a more stable geopolitical risk profile with assets primarily in North America and Australia, avoiding the specific security risks at the Reko Diq project.
FCX
SECTOROffers pure-play exposure to the copper secular growth story (energy transition, AI) without the complexities of gold mining operations and pricing.
Following a record year of cash flow in FY2025 driven by high realized gold prices, Barrick now faces market scrutiny over its 2026 guidance, which signals lower production volumes and higher costs.
Filter all news through the lens of operational execution versus 2026 guidance and capital allocation discipline.
Quarterly production volumes beating the 2.90–3.25M oz gold guidance range; All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) coming in below the $1,760-$1,950/oz guided range; Positive progress on the North American assets IPO; Successful ramp-up of growth projects.
Production misses or cost overruns at key mines; Geopolitical instability impacting operations in Mali, Pakistan, or Zambia; A sustained decline in gold spot prices below the cost base; Negative revisions to the North American assets IPO plan.
Minor week-to-week fluctuations in the spot price of gold (the thesis is based on beating cost/production guidance within the existing price environment); Analyst price target changes not backed by a change in production or cost estimates; Early-stage exploration results that do not materially impact near-term production.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful execution of an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for its North American gold assets, planned for late 2026, which aims to surface value for shareholders. The market is also watching for sustained free cash flow generation to support the new dividend policy, which targets a payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow.
Gold Mining
$14416000.0B TTM (85% of Total) · 1637% MarginWhat It Is
Gold in the form of doré bars, which are then refined into bullion. Key producing assets include the Nevada Gold Mines complex, Loulo-Gounkoto (Mali), and Pueblo Viejo (Dominican Republic).
Who Pays & How
Global financial institutions, central banks, and commodity traders purchase gold for investment purposes, as a store of value, and for use in jewelry and electronics. Sales are made at the prevailing market spot price.
Competition
Copper Mining
$2544000.0B TTM (15% of Total) · 3.61% MarginWhat It Is
Copper concentrate. Key producing assets are Lumwana (Zambia), Jabal Sayid (Saudi Arabia), and Zaldívar (Chile).
Who Pays & How
Global commodity traders and industrial smelters purchase copper concentrate for use in construction, electronics, and transportation. Sales are made at the prevailing LME/COMEX market price.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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