Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Show more.
  Key risks
AXR key risks include [1] material delays in securing project entitlements and municipal approvals, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
6 Key risks
AXR key risks include [1] material delays in securing project entitlements and municipal approvals, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AXR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Significant Decline in Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings:

AMREP (AXR) reported a substantial drop in its net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended on October 31, 2025. The net income saw a 70.3% year-over-year decrease to $1.2 million, and diluted EPS fell significantly from $0.75 to $0.22.

2. Decrease in Quarterly Revenue:

Alongside the earnings decline, the company experienced a 21.1% year-over-year decrease in revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, dropping to $9.4 million from $11.9 million in the prior year.

3. Expected Reduction in Land Sale Revenues:

Management indicated expectations for reduced land sale revenues in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025. This outlook is primarily due to a scaled-back development pipeline and slower project progression, influenced by prevailing market conditions.

4. Impact of Market Uncertainty and Affordability Constraints:

The company cautioned that its revenues and margins could continue to fluctuate. Factors cited for this uncertainty include general market conditions, affordability constraints affecting buyers, and ongoing delays in obtaining development approvals.

5. Reinforcement of Bearish Narrative on Earnings Growth:

The Q2 2026 results contributed to a bearish sentiment regarding the company's future earnings growth. While revenue is projected to grow around 10.7% annually, earnings are forecast to increase by only approximately 1% per year, reinforcing concerns about slowing profit expansion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AXR Return43%78%-24%90%43%-39%221%
Peers Return18%36%-27%92%-10%-3%98%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AXR Win Rate58%58%25%50%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%43%58%48%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AXR Max Drawdown-33%-13%-32%0%-25%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-6%-45%-3%-16%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, PHM, LGIH, KBH, FOR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAXRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven484 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven174 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven651 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1322.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to JOE, FOR, OZ, HHH, FPH


In The Past

Amrep's stock fell -43.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -43.7% loss requires a 77.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Amrep (AXR)

Better Bets than Amrep (AXR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AXR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Amrep

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AXRDHIPHMLGIHKBHFORMedian
NameAmrep D.R. Hor.PulteGro.LGI HomesKB Home Forestar  
Mkt Price19.30152.00122.8046.3662.9426.6254.65
Mkt Cap0.145.024.11.14.21.42.8
Rev LTM4634,25017,6231,7896,5421,6624,165
Op Inc LTM114,4243,395107635209422
FCF LTM43,2841,552-171350-199177
FCF 3Y Avg113,1541,875-1485881299
CFO LTM53,4211,668-170394-198200
CFO 3Y Avg113,3051,983-1466283320

Growth & Margins

AXRDHIPHMLGIHKBHFORMedian
NameAmrep D.R. Hor.PulteGro.LGI HomesKB Home Forestar  
Rev Chg LTM-27.3%-6.9%1.8%-20.6%-0.9%10.1%-3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.5%0.9%5.4%-11.5%-0.5%3.3%0.2%
Rev Chg Q-21.1%-3.2%-1.6%-39.2%-7.5%21.6%-5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.2%-0.9%-0.4%-12.5%-2.0%7.7%-1.5%
Op Mgn LTM24.5%12.9%19.3%6.0%9.7%12.6%12.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.3%15.4%20.6%8.5%11.2%14.3%14.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%-1.2%-0.7%-2.1%-0.7%-0.5%-1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM10.9%10.0%9.5%-9.5%6.0%-11.9%7.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.3%9.4%11.6%-7.1%9.5%1.0%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM9.7%9.6%8.8%-9.6%5.3%-12.0%7.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.6%8.9%10.9%-7.2%8.9%0.9%8.9%

Valuation

AXRDHIPHMLGIHKBHFORMedian
NameAmrep D.R. Hor.PulteGro.LGI HomesKB Home Forestar  
Mkt Cap0.145.024.11.14.21.42.8
P/S2.81.31.50.70.60.81.1
P/EBIT-10.27.611.26.66.57.6
P/E12.212.59.911.28.28.110.6
P/CFO25.513.115.6-7.010.7-6.911.9
Total Yield8.2%9.1%10.8%8.9%12.6%12.4%9.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%0.7%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.1%9.2%-8.1%14.4%0.8%7.1%
D/E-0.10.11.50.50.60.5
Net D/E-0.10.01.40.40.30.3

Returns

AXRDHIPHMLGIHKBHFORMedian
NameAmrep D.R. Hor.PulteGro.LGI HomesKB Home Forestar  
1M Rtn-3.5%10.3%8.1%1.1%7.5%14.1%7.8%
3M Rtn-23.1%-10.3%-8.2%-19.4%-2.8%-0.6%-9.3%
6M Rtn-9.8%26.0%24.3%-2.1%25.4%37.4%24.9%
12M Rtn-42.0%4.8%6.8%-51.9%-9.1%-1.4%-5.3%
3Y Rtn64.5%75.1%171.6%-54.6%104.7%72.1%73.6%
1M Excs Rtn-4.2%9.6%7.3%0.4%6.8%13.3%7.0%
3M Excs Rtn-32.7%-11.5%-9.6%-21.1%-4.1%-3.0%-10.5%
6M Excs Rtn-22.2%13.7%11.9%-14.5%13.0%25.0%12.5%
12M Excs Rtn-58.1%-8.5%-6.4%-64.6%-21.5%-15.5%-18.5%
3Y Excs Rtn6.9%13.1%113.2%-121.8%39.4%6.7%10.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Land Development3734 3217
Homebuilding1514 3 
Corporate 0 51
Total5149 4019


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Land Development9795878273
Homebuilding13662 
Corporate 1421324
Total111116959797


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21,872
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-9.8%
Average Daily Volume6,373
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.43
Basic Shares Quantity5,338,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/12/2025   
7/25/2025-6.2%-7.3%-7.6%
3/7/2025-13.3%-5.5%-19.7%
12/13/2024-11.2%-12.4%-11.4%
7/23/2024-0.5%16.7%4.0%
3/8/20241.9%5.9%-5.3%
12/11/2023-0.2%2.1%6.1%
7/25/2023-6.0%-10.1%-14.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive71110
# Negative1289
Median Positive3.0%11.3%9.7%
Median Negative-2.2%-7.3%-10.8%
Max Positive18.3%29.6%31.6%
Max Negative-13.3%-21.6%-22.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251212202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025909202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025725202510-K 4/30/2025
1312025307202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241213202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024913202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024723202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024308202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231211202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023913202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023725202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023313202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221212202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022907202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022721202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022310202210-Q 1/31/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ROBOTTI ROBERT 12232024Sell31.561795,6499,764,488Form
1ROBOTTI ROBERT 12202024Sell31.75412710,402,435Form