LGI Homes (LGIH)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $48.65 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
LGI Homes (LGIH)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $48.65Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 152% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -39% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.6% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 152% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -39% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LGIH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -8.4% stock movement for LGI Homes (LGIH) from July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:
1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: LGI Homes reported third quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.85, which fell short of Wall Street's consensus estimates of $0.94 or $0.95. Revenue for the quarter, at $396.6 million, matched expectations but represented a substantial year-over-year decline of 39.2%.
2. Decline in Closings and Margins: The company's closings decreased by 39.4% year-over-year, and unit closings of approximately 1,107 to 1,200 homes missed estimates. Additionally, the gross margin for the third quarter was 21.5%, down from 25.1% in the prior year, primarily due to higher lot costs and a greater mix of wholesale closings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LGIH Return | 50% | 46% | -40% | 44% | -33% | -45% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 29% | -13% | 58% | 12% | -9% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LGIH Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 53% | 38% | 48% | 50% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LGIH Max Drawdown | -51% | -8% | -52% | -8% | -36% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -6% | -30% | -3% | -6% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DY, TMHC, MTH, KBH, SPHL. See LGIH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LGIH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 303 days | 120 days |
Compare to DY, TMHC, MTH, KBH, SPHL
In The Past
LGI Homes's stock fell -59.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -59.5% loss requires a 147.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LGIH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 01312022 | LGIH | LGI Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.2% | -8.6% | -40.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 01312022 | LGIH | LGI Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.2% | -8.6% | -40.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LGI Homes
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,048 |
| Op Inc LTM | 635 |
| FCF LTM | 123 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 161 |
| CFO LTM | 394 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 284 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | 13.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 106.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 45.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 9.1% | 12.3% | |
| 8/5/2025 | 8.6% | 4.2% | 14.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.5% | -7.4% | -6.7% |
| 11/5/2024 | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 13.8% | -3.1% | 6.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | -6.4% | 1.7% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2024 | -8.4% | -11.1% | -13.6% |
| 10/31/2023 | 6.3% | 22.9% | 34.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 16 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.2% | 11.3% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -6.8% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 13.8% | 22.9% | 45.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.3% | -13.3% | -47.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |