AlphaTON Capital (ATON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.6 | Market Cap: $1.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
AlphaTON Capital (ATON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.6Market Cap: $1.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -145%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1137% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 265% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -145%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1137% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 265% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ATON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
AlphaTON Capital (ATON) experienced a significant stock decline of -77.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Significant Stock Price Drops and Volatility: The company's stock experienced multiple substantial drops during the period. On November 7, 2025, ATON stock was trending down by -16.12% amid concerns of export restrictions and market uncertainties. It further declined by -7.53% on November 24, 2025, due to strategic restructuring and global market tensions. By November 26, 2025, AlphaTON Capital's stock was down by -11.63%, and another -12.09% on the same day, spurred by a significant leadership departure. The closing price on November 26, 2025, was approximately $1.90, a continuous drop from its weekly high of $2.86 on November 19, 2025, with volatility pulling prices from heights of $4.75 earlier in the month. As of December 3, 2025, the stock price was $1.59.
2. Financial Instability and Underperformance: AlphaTON Capital's financials reveal a concerning picture, with total liabilities surpassing total assets, indicating the company may be over-leveraged and in a risky financial standing. Key financial metrics showed a negative book value per share and a return on assets hitting -37.71%. The company has shown continuing losses, with negative net profit, and its profitability measures suggest ineffective asset utilization. A notably negative book value per share points to an urgent need for strategic shifts, and high debt levels with insufficient cash flow indicators raise concerns over liquidity risks.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATON Return | 108% | -45% | -51% | -66% | -86% | -68% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 14% | -11% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATON Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 17% | 33% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 28% | 45% | 38% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATON Max Drawdown | -10% | -45% | -59% | -79% | -94% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -10% | -25% | -9% | -9% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3827.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -100.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 617900.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 193 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1400.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 530 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX
In The Past
AlphaTON Capital's stock fell -97.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/17/2021. A -97.5% loss requires a 3827.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ATON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AlphaTON Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 58 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 3.2 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -0.6 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312025 | 7252025 | 20-F 3/31/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11262024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8272024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 8142024 | 20-F 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11282023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8302023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 7312023 | 20-F 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11292022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8292022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 8012022 | 20-F 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8302021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 3312021 | 7292021 | 20-F 3/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |