AppFolio (APPF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $236.55 | Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
AppFolio (APPF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $236.55Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 75x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 75x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APPF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The AppFolio (APPF) stock performance from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, shows a notable decline, although the precise -14.8% movement over that specific period cannot be directly identified from the available data. However, based on the provided search results, several factors likely influenced the stock's movement during the broader timeframe, reflecting a mixed sentiment with some positive analyst ratings and revenue growth, alongside concerns about earnings misses and a decrease in total assets. 1. Earnings Miss in Q3 2025. AppFolio reported its Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, October 30th, with an adjusted EPS of $1.31, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.45 by $0.14. Despite revenue exceeding expectations at $249.35 million, the earnings miss could have contributed to a negative stock reaction. 2. Decrease in Total Assets. There was a significant drop in AppFolio's total assets from $626.7 million at the end of December 2024 to $567.4 million by June 30, 2025. This decrease in assets could raise concerns among investors regarding the company's financial health and stability. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APPF Return | 64% | -33% | -13% | 64% | 42% | -6% | 110% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -4% | -6% | 27% | 57% | 847% | 1811% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APPF Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 17% | 21% | 45% | 58% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APPF Max Drawdown | -23% | -36% | -32% | 0% | -5% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -10% | -14% | -15% | -9% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, SPOK, HIT, BMR, BTTC. See APPF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APPF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 120 days |
Compare to ADSK, SPOK, HIT, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
AppFolio's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -54.7% loss requires a 120.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can AppFolio Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Is 20.2% Fall In AppFolio (APPF) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| AppFolio vs Eli Lilly: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| AppFolio vs Arista Networks: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| AppFolio vs Cadence Design Systems: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Day 9 of Loss Streak for AppFolio Stock with -17% Return (vs. 7.5% YTD) [8/15/2025] | Notification | ||
| How Does AppFolio Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than APPF Stock: Pay Less Than AppFolio To Get More From CALM, ADMA | |||
| Better Bet Than APPF Stock: Pay Less Than AppFolio To Get More From DAVE | |||
| Better Bet Than APPF Stock: Pay Less Than AppFolio To Get More From DAVE | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| AppFolio Stock To $160? | October 15th, 2025 | ||
| APPF Stock Down -17% after 9-Day Loss Streak | August 16th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APPF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AppFolio
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 140 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 134 |
| CFO LTM | 120 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 144 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| P/EBIT | 35.6 |
| P/E | 42.2 |
| P/CFO | 24.0 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 104.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 36.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |