Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.63 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.63Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 64x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Short seller report |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 64x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Short seller report |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APLS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) experienced a stock movement of -22.9% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, primarily due to the following key factors:
1. Apellis Pharmaceuticals reported a significant revenue miss in its Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. While the company's adjusted earnings per share exceeded analyst expectations, its revenue for the quarter fell 9.7% year-over-year to $177.76 million, substantially missing the analyst consensus of $406.68 million.
2. Several institutional investors significantly reduced their holdings in Apellis Pharmaceuticals during Q3 2025. Notably, ECOR1 CAPITAL, LLC, decreased its portfolio by 8,448,652 shares, an estimated value of over $191 million. Similarly, MARSHALL WACE, LLP, removed 2,308,102 shares, valued at over $52 million. These substantial outflows signal decreased institutional confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APLS Return | 87% | -17% | 9% | 16% | -47% | -35% | -33% |
| Peers Return | -4% | -16% | -12% | 2% | -14% | 31% | -18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APLS Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 83% | 25% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 42% | 46% | 56% | 40% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APLS Max Drawdown | -42% | -46% | -26% | -54% | -56% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -21% | -25% | -31% | -21% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IONS, ELAN, OGN, PRGO, ACSB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 294.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 248 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 120 days |
Compare to IONS, ELAN, OGN, PRGO, ACSB
In The Past
Apellis Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -74.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/13/2023. A -74.7% loss requires a 294.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APLS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Apellis Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,282 |
| Op Inc LTM | 241 |
| FCF LTM | 271 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 223 |
| CFO LTM | 376 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 339 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -38.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -50.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -50.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -122.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |