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Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.63 | Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.63
Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 64x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%
2   Short seller report
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 64x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%
6 Short seller report

Valuation, Metrics & Events

APLS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) experienced a stock movement of -22.9% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, primarily due to the following key factors:

1. Apellis Pharmaceuticals reported a significant revenue miss in its Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. While the company's adjusted earnings per share exceeded analyst expectations, its revenue for the quarter fell 9.7% year-over-year to $177.76 million, substantially missing the analyst consensus of $406.68 million.

2. Several institutional investors significantly reduced their holdings in Apellis Pharmaceuticals during Q3 2025. Notably, ECOR1 CAPITAL, LLC, decreased its portfolio by 8,448,652 shares, an estimated value of over $191 million. Similarly, MARSHALL WACE, LLP, removed 2,308,102 shares, valued at over $52 million. These substantial outflows signal decreased institutional confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
APLS Return87%-17%9%16%-47%-35%-33%
Peers Return-4%-16%-12%2%-14%31%-18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
APLS Win Rate50%67%58%83%25%30% 
Peers Win Rate35%42%46%56%40%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
APLS Max Drawdown-42%-46%-26%-54%-56%-49% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-21%-25%-31%-21%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IONS, ELAN, OGN, PRGO, ACSB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAPLSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven294.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven248 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven316 days120 days

Compare to IONS, ELAN, OGN, PRGO, ACSB


In The Past

Apellis Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -74.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/13/2023. A -74.7% loss requires a 294.5% gain to breakeven.

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About Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)

Better Bets than Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to APLS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Apellis Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

APLSIONSELANOGNPRGOACSBMedian
NameApellis .Ionis Ph.Elanco A.Organon Perrigo Acesis  
Mkt Price21.2581.8422.187.2713.96-21.25
Mkt Cap2.713.111.01.91.9-2.7
Rev LTM1,0169674,5916,2814,282-4,282
Op Inc LTM80-2782411,337393-241
FCF LTM79-309354482271-271
FCF 3Y Avg-255-420223530235-223
CFO LTM79-247629826376-376
CFO 3Y Avg-255-380426872339-339

Growth & Margins

APLSIONSELANOGNPRGOACSBMedian
NameApellis .Ionis Ph.Elanco A.Organon Perrigo Acesis  
Rev Chg LTM42.1%20.4%3.1%-1.0%-2.5%-3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg115.2%7.1%0.4%-0.4%-0.8%-0.4%
Rev Chg Q133.0%17.1%10.4%-0.8%-4.1%-10.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM34.7%2.4%2.4%-0.2%-1.0%-2.4%
Op Mgn LTM7.9%-28.8%5.2%21.3%9.2%-7.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-80.7%-55.1%6.2%22.2%6.5%-6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM33.1%-0.5%0.6%-0.9%-0.4%--0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM7.8%-25.5%13.7%13.2%8.8%-8.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-84.9%-52.4%9.4%13.9%7.6%-7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM7.7%-32.0%7.7%7.7%6.3%-7.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-85.1%-57.4%4.9%8.4%5.3%-4.9%

Valuation

APLSIONSELANOGNPRGOACSBMedian
NameApellis .Ionis Ph.Elanco A.Organon Perrigo Acesis  
Mkt Cap2.713.111.01.91.9-2.7
P/S2.810.82.20.40.7-2.2
P/EBIT31.2-60.058.92.111.6-11.6
P/E63.6-40.8277.93.6-59.5-3.6
P/CFO36.3-42.315.93.08.2-8.2
Total Yield1.6%-2.5%0.4%36.9%-0.4%-0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%9.1%1.3%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.7%-6.0%2.5%13.3%6.5%-2.5%
D/E0.20.10.43.51.2-0.4
Net D/E-0.0-0.10.43.31.0-0.4

Returns

APLSIONSELANOGNPRGOACSBMedian
NameApellis .Ionis Ph.Elanco A.Organon Perrigo Acesis  
1M Rtn2.7%11.1%-2.9%8.6%-30.5%-2.7%
3M Rtn-23.6%35.3%27.8%-25.8%-38.8%--23.6%
6M Rtn14.8%133.1%65.0%-23.3%-45.0%-14.8%
12M Rtn-38.6%128.5%77.7%-52.4%-48.1%--38.6%
3Y Rtn-58.0%103.0%68.0%-68.5%-50.4%--50.4%
1M Excs Rtn2.7%11.2%-2.9%8.7%-30.5%-2.7%
3M Excs Rtn-31.2%32.5%21.6%-30.0%-44.1%--30.0%
6M Excs Rtn0.1%118.4%50.3%-38.1%-59.7%-0.1%
12M Excs Rtn-50.9%115.5%54.4%-66.6%-61.9%--50.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-130.8%30.1%9.8%-138.7%-122.8%--122.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
SYFOVRE275    
EMPAVELI91    
Licensing and other revenue301051251 
Product revenue, net 6515  
Total3977567251 


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment    389
Total    389


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,349,387
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.5%
Average Daily Volume2,924,212
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.59
Basic Shares Quantity126,424,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023731202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021