Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $11.8 | Market Cap: $238.8 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $11.8Market Cap: $238.8 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Offshore Wind Development, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 179x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 508%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 341% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 409% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32% Key risksAP key risks include [1] its high leverage and significant debt and [2] customer concentration within its Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Offshore Wind Development, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 179x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 508%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 341% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 409% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32% |
| Key risksAP key risks include [1] its high leverage and significant debt and [2] customer concentration within its Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP) stock has gained about 115% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Record Customer Order Activity in Early 2026.
Ampco-Pittsburgh's subsidiary, Air and Liquid Systems Corporation, achieved a record high of $28 million in customer orders during January 2026, a 33% increase over its previous monthly record. Overall customer orders for the company in January totaled $49 million. Furthermore, total customer order activity in the first two months of 2026 surged by 38% year-over-year, with the Air and Liquid Processing segment experiencing a 73% increase and the Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment an 18% increase.
2. Strategic Operational Improvements and Expected Margin Expansion.
Management implemented strategic actions in late 2025, including the removal of underperforming assets, which is projected to improve adjusted EBITDA by $7 million to $8 million annually. Additionally, the company anticipates approximately 20% higher production volume in Sweden in 2026 compared to 2025, with full margin realization expected by the third quarter of 2026.
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1. Record Customer Order Activity in Early 2026.
Ampco-Pittsburgh's subsidiary, Air and Liquid Systems Corporation, achieved a record high of $28 million in customer orders during January 2026, a 33% increase over its previous monthly record. Overall customer orders for the company in January totaled $49 million. Furthermore, total customer order activity in the first two months of 2026 surged by 38% year-over-year, with the Air and Liquid Processing segment experiencing a 73% increase and the Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment an 18% increase.
2. Strategic Operational Improvements and Expected Margin Expansion.
Management implemented strategic actions in late 2025, including the removal of underperforming assets, which is projected to improve adjusted EBITDA by $7 million to $8 million annually. Additionally, the company anticipates approximately 20% higher production volume in Sweden in 2026 compared to 2025, with full margin realization expected by the third quarter of 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 111.8% change in AP stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 108.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.57 | 11.80 | 111.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 426 | 434 | 1.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.6 | 108.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 20 | 20 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 111.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AP | 112.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.1% | 49.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 461.9% change in AP stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 439.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.10 | 11.80 | 461.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 414 | 434 | 4.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.6 | 439.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 20 | 20 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 461.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AP | 464.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 13.6% | 29.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 470.0% change in AP stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 456.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.07 | 11.80 | 470.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 418 | 434 | 3.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.6 | 456.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 20 | 20 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 470.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AP | 472.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 35.2% | 29.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 290.7% change in AP stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 266.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.02 | 11.80 | 290.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 390 | 434 | 11.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.6 | 266.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 19 | 20 | -4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 290.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AP | 292.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 22.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 83.0% | 25.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AP Return | -9% | -50% | 9% | -23% | 155% | 129% | 123% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 22% | 37% | 41% | 44% | 17% | 315% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AP Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 47% | 58% | 57% | 63% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AP Max Drawdown | -24% | -51% | -13% | -73% | -15% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -19% | -8% | -10% | -20% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ATI, CRS, FLS, IEX, XYL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 610 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1167 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Ampco-Pittsburgh's stock fell -14.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 610 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1167 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1045 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Ampco-Pittsburgh's stock fell -14.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP)
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture and sale of specialty metal products and customized equipment to commercial and industrial users worldwide. It operates in two segments, Forged and Cast Engineered Products (FCEG); and Air and Liquid Processing. The FCEG segment produces forged hardened steel rolls that are used in cold rolling mills by producers of steel, aluminum, and other metals; cast rolls for hot and cold strip, medium/heavy section, hot strip finishing, roughing, and plate mills in various iron and steel qualities; and forged engineered products for use in the steel distribution, oil and gas, and aluminum and plastic extrusion industries. This segment also offers forged rolls for cluster and Z-Hi mills; work rolls for narrow and wide strip and aluminum mills; back-up rolls for narrow strip mills; leveling rolls and shafts; and distributes tool steels, alloys, and carbon round bars. The Air and Liquid Processing segment produces custom-engineered finned tube heat exchange coils and related heat transfer products for various industries, including OEM/commercial, nuclear power generation, and industrial manufacturing; and custom-designed air handling systems for institutional, pharmaceutical, and general industrial building markets. This segment also provides centrifugal pumps the fossil-fueled power generation, marine defense, and industrial refrigeration industries. The company was incorporated in 1929 and is headquartered in Carnegie, Pennsylvania.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Like a specialized The Timken Company (TKR) for steel mills, making the massive rolls that shape metals.
- Think of them as a highly custom Parker-Hannifin (PH), providing engineered metal products and air/liquid processing systems for heavy industry.
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- Forged Hardened Steel Rolls: Rolls used in cold rolling mills by producers of steel, aluminum, and other metals.
- Cast Rolls: Rolls for hot and cold strip, medium/heavy section, hot strip finishing, roughing, and plate mills in various iron and steel qualities.
- Forged Engineered Products: Custom forgings for use in the steel distribution, oil and gas, and aluminum and plastic extrusion industries.
- Metal Bars: Distributed tool steels, alloys, and carbon round bars.
- Finned Tube Heat Exchange Coils: Custom-engineered heat transfer products for OEM/commercial, nuclear power generation, and industrial manufacturing.
- Custom-Designed Air Handling Systems: Systems for institutional, pharmaceutical, and general industrial building markets.
- Centrifugal Pumps: Pumps for fossil-fueled power generation, marine defense, and industrial refrigeration industries.
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```htmlAmpco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) primarily sells to other companies (B2B) within various industrial sectors worldwide. Its major customers are companies operating in the following industries and markets:
- Producers of steel, aluminum, and other metals, particularly those operating cold rolling mills, hot and cold strip mills, and plate mills.
- Companies in the steel distribution, oil and gas, aluminum extrusion, and plastic extrusion industries.
- OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and commercial customers, as well as companies in industrial manufacturing, industrial refrigeration, and general industrial building markets.
- Entities within the nuclear power generation, fossil-fueled power generation, and marine defense industries.
- Institutional and pharmaceutical markets requiring custom-designed air handling systems.
The company description does not name specific public customer companies, but rather describes the industries and types of businesses it serves.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
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J. Brett McBrayer, Chief Executive Officer
J. Brett McBrayer was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation, effective July 1, 2018. Prior to joining Ampco-Pittsburgh, Mr. McBrayer served as President and CEO of Airtex Products / ASC Industries from October 2012 to May 2017. He was also the Vice President and General Manager of Rio Tinto Alcan from January 2011 to October 2012, where he improved the profit and loss and oversaw the sale of the business within 18 months. From January 2009 to December 2010, Mr. McBrayer was the Vice President and General Manager of Precision Castparts. His career also includes 20 years with Alcoa Inc., where he held positions of increasing responsibility and leadership from January 1989 to December 2009. Mr. McBrayer holds a B.S. in industrial engineering from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and an M.A. in applied behavioral science from Bastyr University.
David G. Anderson, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary
David G. Anderson was elected to the position of Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary, effective January 1, 2026. He will also maintain his current role as President of Air & Liquid Systems Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ampco-Pittsburgh. Mr. Anderson joined the Corporation in 2010 and brings over 35 years of experience in finance and operations leadership to his expanded role. Before leading Air & Liquid Systems, he served as Vice President of Finance for both of Ampco-Pittsburgh's operating segments.
Sam Lyon, President, Union Electric Steel Corporation
Sam Lyon serves as the President of Union Electric Steel Corporation, a subsidiary of Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation.
Keith A. Zatawski, Chief Risk Officer and Director of Benefits
Keith A. Zatawski holds the titles of Chief Risk Officer and Director of Benefits at Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation.
Roscoe Carrier, Chief Information Officer
Roscoe Carrier is the Chief Information Officer for Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Ampco-Pittsburgh's business are primarily driven by the cyclical nature of its end markets, intense competitive pressures, and its financial leverage. * Cyclical Demand in End Markets: Ampco-Pittsburgh's Forged and Cast Engineered Products (FCEG) segment is highly dependent on the steel, aluminum, and oil and gas industries, which are inherently cyclical. Downturns in these industrial sectors, characterized by lower steel mill utilization or reduced oil and gas activity, can significantly suppress orders for its rolls, forgings, and castings, leading to reduced near-term revenue visibility. Demand for steel in key markets like North America and Europe has recently been below pre-pandemic levels. * Competitive Pricing Pressure and Excess Global Capacity: The company faces significant competitive intensity from global roll and forging producers. Persistent excess global steel capacity, particularly from China, contributes to a challenging pricing environment, which can lead to margin erosion if Ampco-Pittsburgh cannot sufficiently differentiate its products or services. * High Financial Leverage: Ampco-Pittsburgh is highly leveraged, relying significantly on debt rather than shareholder equity to finance its operations, which introduces substantial financial risk. The company's debt levels result in considerable interest expenses, and it has resorted to issuing new shares in the past to manage its debt, leading to shareholder dilution.AI Analysis | Feedback
The global transition away from fossil-fueled power generation represents a clear emerging threat. This trend directly impacts Ampco-Pittsburgh's Air and Liquid Processing segment, specifically the demand for its centrifugal pumps and related heat transfer products supplied to the fossil-fueled power generation industry. As new fossil fuel power plants become increasingly rare and existing ones are phased out, the market for these specialized components will decline significantly.
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The addressable markets for Ampco-Pittsburgh's main products and services are global, as the company serves commercial and industrial users worldwide. Here are the estimated market sizes for their key offerings:
Forged and Cast Engineered Products Segment:
- Forged Rolls: The global forged rolls market size was estimated at approximately USD 9.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 13.47 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2033.
- Cast Rolls: The global casting rolls market was valued at approximately USD 1.29 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach approximately USD 2.66 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.18% from 2022 to 2030.
- Forged Engineered Products (as part of the broader Metal Forging Market): The global metal forging market size was estimated at USD 102.34 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 213.3 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.62% from 2026 to 2035. Another estimate places the global forging market size at USD 99.15 billion in 2026, expected to grow to USD 151.05 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 4.3%. The steel forging market, a significant component, was valued at USD 64.18 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 134.51 billion by 2034.
Air and Liquid Processing Segment:
- Custom-engineered Finned Tube Heat Exchange Coils and Related Heat Transfer Products: The global finned tube heat exchanger market size is estimated to be approximately USD 3.1 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 4.7 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.1% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2033.
- Custom-designed Air Handling Systems: The global air handling units market size was valued at USD 13.32 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 14.21 billion in 2026 to USD 25.66 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.7%. Other estimates indicate the market size at USD 14.8 billion in 2025.
- Centrifugal Pumps: The global centrifugal pump market size was estimated to be around USD 41.8 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 71.8 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.56% from 2025 to 2035. Another report valued the market at USD 41.15 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 57.99 billion by 2033.
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Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:- Strong Demand from U.S. Navy and Military Sector: The Air and Liquid Processing segment is poised for substantial long-term growth due to increased demand from the U.S. Navy and military markets. This includes significant orders for centrifugal pumps and approved funding for the modernization and expansion of its pump manufacturing facility.
- Growth in the Nuclear Power Generation Market: Ampco-Pittsburgh is strategically focused on the nuclear market, which is entering a long-term growth phase. The company anticipates strong demand for its heat exchange coils and related heat transfer products within this sector, including opportunities related to small modular reactor nuclear plants.
- Expansion into Pharmaceutical and Data Center Industries: The Air and Liquid Processing segment is experiencing exceptionally strong and sustained demand for its custom-engineered products from the pharmaceutical and data center sectors. This expansion into new high-growth markets is contributing to increased customer orders.
- Pricing Power and Increased Shipments of Forged Engineered Products: The Forged and Cast Engineered Products (FCEP) segment is expected to benefit from higher net roll pricing and increased shipments of its forged engineered products. This indicates the company's ability to leverage its specialized offerings and market position.
- Recovery in Traditional Roll Products Demand: Following temporary market adjustments, demand for Ampco-Pittsburgh's traditional forged and cast roll products is recovering. The company anticipates a return to normal ordering patterns by 2026, which will contribute to revenue growth in the FCEP segment.
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Share Issuance
- Insiders collectively purchased approximately US$800,000 worth of shares within the 12 months leading up to December 30, 2025.
- On March 5, 2026, Samuel Lyon, President of Union Electric, was granted 42,240 performance shares of common stock, contingent upon the satisfaction of performance requirements and his continued service through May 15, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Ampco-Pittsburgh strategically decided to exit its unprofitable UK cast-roll facility in late 2025, which is anticipated to result in a one-time, non-cash expense of $43 million to $45 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- The company also exited a smaller, non-core steel distribution business.
- These business exits are projected to improve adjusted EBITDA by $7 million to $8 million annually following the UK exit.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures resulted in a negative cash flow from investing activities of -$4.51 million as of the third quarter of 2025.
- The company has cited the "inability to obtain necessary capital or financing on satisfactory terms to acquire capital expenditures that may be necessary to support our growth strategy" as a potential risk.
- Management expects maintenance capital expenditures to be below depreciation, which could generate meaningful free cash flow in the near term, with proceeds from the UK liquidation earmarked for debt reduction.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Ampco-Pittsburgh Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| null | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
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| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 137.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,062 |
| Op Inc LTM | 654 |
| FCF LTM | 495 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 297 |
| CFO LTM | 651 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 463 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.7 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 27.3 |
| P/EBIT | 21.9 |
| P/E | 29.5 |
| P/CFO | 24.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 76.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 223.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 47.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 123.0% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $11.86 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/19/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.90 | $5.11 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 33.2% | 132.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 96.9% | 90.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.87 | 0.37 |
| Upside Capture | 342.03 | 231.48 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.0% | 29.2% |
AP Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.36 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 2.26 | 2.13 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 3.13 | 4.24 | 3.77 | 3.71 | 2.77 | 1.56 |
| Down Beta | 1.26 | 4.08 | 4.59 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 497% | 374% | 583% | 537% | 512% | 187% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 35 | 67 | 124 | 347 |
| Down Capture | 403% | 260% | 165% | -73% | 76% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 29 | 57 | 121 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP | 381.2% | 90.5% | 2.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.6% | 15.6% | 1.51 | 28.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.1% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 29.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 26.9% | 1.30 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 18.0% | 2.14 | -4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.5% | 0.70 | 20.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.4% | 41.7% | -0.50 | 18.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP | 9.6% | 74.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.8% | 17.4% | 0.58 | 24.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 20.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.5% | 19.1% | 0.58 | 4.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 16.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.5% | 56.0% | 0.36 | 9.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP | -4.3% | 72.3% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 22.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 19.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 8.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 13.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.1% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 6.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/16/2026 | -20.6% | -12.7% | 6.5% |
| 11/12/2025 | 13.6% | 34.0% | 92.1% |
| 8/12/2025 | -5.6% | -16.8% | -21.2% |
| 3/12/2025 | 21.2% | 21.2% | 8.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.1% | -10.0% | 10.0% |
| 7/10/2024 | 60.8% | 123.6% | 67.3% |
| 3/25/2024 | -20.3% | -22.1% | -24.3% |
| 11/13/2023 | 0.4% | -2.9% | -8.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 8.0% | 11.6% | 20.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -12.6% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 60.8% | 123.6% | 92.1% |
| Max Negative | -20.6% | -28.3% | -27.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/16/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/17/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Annual EBITDA Improvement | 7.00 Mil | 7.50 Mil | 8.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Improvement | 7.00 Mil | 7.50 Mil | 8.00 Mil | 50.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McBrayer, Brett | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 3192026 | 6.67 | 7,500 | 50,025 | 3,906,826 | Form |
| 2 | McBrayer, Brett | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12022025 | 2.58 | 19,000 | 48,944 | 1,155,673 | Form |
| 3 | Louis, Berkman Investment CO | Direct | Buy | 11262025 | 2.67 | 93,000 | 248,310 | 8,351,205 | Form | |
| 4 | McNair, Darrell L | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 2.52 | 3,000 | 7,560 | 161,058 | Form | |
| 5 | McNair, Darrell L | Direct | Buy | 11182025 | 2.68 | 10,000 | 26,800 | 163,244 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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