Tearsheet

AMERISAFE (AMSF)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.205 | Market Cap: $744.1 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

AMERISAFE (AMSF)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.205
Market Cap: $744.1 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 74x
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 74x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AMSF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the -14.3% stock movement for AMERISAFE (AMSF) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: **1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Results**
AMERISAFE reported mixed third-quarter 2025 earnings. While some sources indicated revenue beats, others reported quarterly revenue of $71.29 million, which was below analyst estimates of $78.29 million. The company's normalized (operating) earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55 either slightly missed or met the consensus estimate of $0.56, failing to provide a significant positive surprise. **2. Decline in Net Investment Income**
The company experienced a notable decline in net investment income, which decreased by 12.3% year-over-year to $6.6 million for the third quarter of 2025. This reduction was primarily attributed to a decrease in investable assets following a special dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2024. **3. Elevated Underwriting Expense Ratio and Premium Pricing Pressures**
AMERISAFE faced challenges with its underwriting expense ratio, which rose to 31.1% (or 31.3% in some reports) in Q3 2025, an increase from the prior year. This was due to ongoing business investments and higher insurance assessments. Concurrently, approved workers' compensation loss costs continued to decline by mid-single digits year-over-year, placing pressure on premium rates and potentially slowing top-line growth. **4. Resignation of Chief Financial Officer**
The announcement of Chief Financial Officer Anastasios Omiridis's resignation, effective November 30, 2025, contributed to market uncertainty. This change in key leadership was highlighted as a potential near-term sentiment catalyst for the stock. **5. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Bearish Market Sentiment**
Analyst sentiment shifted negatively during the period. Citizens JMP lowered its price target for AMSF to $60 from $65 in October 2025, and Truist Financial subsequently reduced its price target to $45 from $50 in November 2025. Broader market forecasts also indicated a bearish outlook for AMERISAFE shares towards the end of 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AMSF Return-6%2%6%-1%20%-20%-4%
Peers Return4%27%11%16%31%12%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AMSF Win Rate50%50%50%42%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%53%62%68%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AMSF Max Drawdown-23%-5%-16%-6%-9%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-6%-11%-14%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAMSFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven808 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven304 days1480 days

Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV


In The Past

AMERISAFE's stock fell -32.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/13/2021. A -32.3% loss requires a 47.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AMERISAFE (AMSF)

Better Bets than AMERISAFE (AMSF)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AMSF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AMERISAFE

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AMSFHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAMERISAFEHartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Price39.23133.0458.19227.18295.05284.27180.11
Mkt Cap0.737.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
Rev LTM31027,69213,29782,37658,90048,40938,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM95,8656,72716,47213,3219,9858,356
FCF 3Y Avg144,9226,25012,35013,4098,6827,466
CFO LTM115,9886,87216,80013,3219,9858,428
CFO 3Y Avg165,1096,38812,63413,4098,6827,535

Growth & Margins

AMSFHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAMERISAFEHartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.7%6.9%7.4%21.5%6.7%6.7%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.9%8.6%-0.7%20.0%12.2%10.1%9.3%
Rev Chg Q4.2%6.4%16.8%21.3%8.2%4.8%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%1.6%4.0%4.9%2.2%1.2%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM3.6%21.6%51.7%20.4%22.6%20.6%21.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.0%19.6%51.9%18.0%24.8%19.4%19.5%
FCF/Rev LTM3.0%21.2%50.6%20.0%22.6%20.6%20.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.6%18.9%50.8%17.6%24.8%19.4%19.1%

Valuation

AMSFHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAMERISAFEHartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Cap0.737.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
P/S2.71.41.11.91.91.31.6
P/EBIT-8.19.111.78.58.18.5
P/E16.710.514.215.011.610.712.9
P/CFO73.86.32.29.38.46.37.3
Total Yield16.4%11.1%10.6%8.5%10.0%10.2%10.4%
Dividend Yield10.4%1.6%3.6%1.8%1.3%0.8%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.6%15.8%50.1%10.3%12.9%17.2%14.4%
D/E0.00.10.30.00.20.10.1
Net D/E-0.2-0.5-1.8-0.0-0.2-1.4-0.3

Returns

AMSFHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAMERISAFEHartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
1M Rtn-1.5%7.5%5.1%11.5%6.0%6.2%6.1%
3M Rtn-14.2%0.4%-1.7%-7.9%6.4%3.2%-0.7%
6M Rtn-13.1%4.9%9.4%-19.4%1.8%5.4%3.3%
12M Rtn-26.8%12.0%-4.2%-11.7%4.5%10.9%0.1%
3Y Rtn-11.2%85.9%75.3%76.6%40.7%58.9%67.1%
1M Excs Rtn-1.4%7.6%5.1%11.6%6.1%6.2%6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-21.6%-6.1%-8.2%-14.1%0.4%-3.2%-7.2%
6M Excs Rtn-27.8%-9.9%-5.3%-34.1%-12.9%-9.3%-11.4%
12M Excs Rtn-41.3%-3.4%-18.6%-27.3%-10.0%-4.9%-14.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-81.7%16.1%-0.1%7.2%-29.7%-11.1%-5.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance Operations307    
Single Segment 295316340370
Total307295316340370


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity167,387
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202518.2%
Average Daily Volume128,603
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.30
Basic Shares Quantity18,980,807
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Omiridis AnastasiosEVP-CFO11202025Sell40.211,24750,142102,093Form
1Omiridis AnastasiosEVP-CFO11102025Sell40.741,23550,314154,242Form