AMERISAFE (AMSF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.205 | Market Cap: $744.1 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
AMERISAFE (AMSF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.205Market Cap: $744.1 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 74x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 74x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMSF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the -14.3% stock movement for AMERISAFE (AMSF) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
**1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Results**
AMERISAFE reported mixed third-quarter 2025 earnings. While some sources indicated revenue beats, others reported quarterly revenue of $71.29 million, which was below analyst estimates of $78.29 million. The company's normalized (operating) earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55 either slightly missed or met the consensus estimate of $0.56, failing to provide a significant positive surprise.
**2. Decline in Net Investment Income**
The company experienced a notable decline in net investment income, which decreased by 12.3% year-over-year to $6.6 million for the third quarter of 2025. This reduction was primarily attributed to a decrease in investable assets following a special dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2024.
**3. Elevated Underwriting Expense Ratio and Premium Pricing Pressures**
AMERISAFE faced challenges with its underwriting expense ratio, which rose to 31.1% (or 31.3% in some reports) in Q3 2025, an increase from the prior year. This was due to ongoing business investments and higher insurance assessments. Concurrently, approved workers' compensation loss costs continued to decline by mid-single digits year-over-year, placing pressure on premium rates and potentially slowing top-line growth.
**4. Resignation of Chief Financial Officer**
The announcement of Chief Financial Officer Anastasios Omiridis's resignation, effective November 30, 2025, contributed to market uncertainty. This change in key leadership was highlighted as a potential near-term sentiment catalyst for the stock.
**5. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Bearish Market Sentiment**
Analyst sentiment shifted negatively during the period. Citizens JMP lowered its price target for AMSF to $60 from $65 in October 2025, and Truist Financial subsequently reduced its price target to $45 from $50 in November 2025. Broader market forecasts also indicated a bearish outlook for AMERISAFE shares towards the end of 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMSF Return | -6% | 2% | 6% | -1% | 20% | -20% | -4% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 12% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMSF Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMSF Max Drawdown | -23% | -5% | -16% | -6% | -9% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -11% | -14% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMSF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 808 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 304 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV
In The Past
AMERISAFE's stock fell -32.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/13/2021. A -32.3% loss requires a 47.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMSF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AMERISAFE
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 180.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,466 |
| CFO LTM | 8,428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.5 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 7.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |