Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $521.61 | Market Cap: $850.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $521.61Market Cap: $850.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Digital Content & Streaming, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 168x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 170x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 101%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 222% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 138% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% Key risksAMD key risks include [1] fierce competition from NVIDIA, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Digital Content & Streaming, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 168x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 170x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 101%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 222% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 138% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Key risksAMD key risks include [1] fierce competition from NVIDIA, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has gained about 155% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Outlook.
Advanced Micro Devices reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.37, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.29 by $0.08. Quarterly revenue increased by 37.8% year-over-year to $10.25 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $9.90 billion. Notably, the Data Center segment's revenue soared by 57% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, establishing it as the primary growth driver. For fiscal Q2 2026, AMD provided strong guidance, projecting revenue of approximately $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million, which implies a 46% year-over-year growth. This guidance, along with a projected non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 56%, exceeded the then-prevailing consensus of $10.52 billion and led to multiple analyst upgrades, including KeyCorp raising its fiscal Q2 2026 EPS forecast to $1.47.
2. Significant Expansion of AI Product Portfolio and Major Customer Commitments.
The "Advancing AI 2026" event on July 23, 2026, served as a pivotal moment, with AMD launching its next-generation AI infrastructure, including the 6th Gen AMD EPYC™ CPUs, AMD Instinct™ MI400 Series GPUs, and AMD Helios™ AI rack-scale solutions. The AMD Helios platform is positioned to offer up to 30% more inference tokens per dollar than competitors. Crucially, the company announced major customer commitments, including Anthropic's plan to deploy up to two gigawatts of AMD's MI455X GPUs through Helios systems, and OpenAI's partnership to optimize GPT models on Helios, with deployments starting in fiscal Q4 2026. Microsoft also committed to deploying the Helios platform in its Azure data centers, along with new Venice CPUs, for agentic AI workloads. Meta Platforms is validating AMD's latest processors and testing Helios systems for broader deployments.
Show more
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has gained about 155% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Outlook.
Advanced Micro Devices reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.37, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.29 by $0.08. Quarterly revenue increased by 37.8% year-over-year to $10.25 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $9.90 billion. Notably, the Data Center segment's revenue soared by 57% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, establishing it as the primary growth driver. For fiscal Q2 2026, AMD provided strong guidance, projecting revenue of approximately $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million, which implies a 46% year-over-year growth. This guidance, along with a projected non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 56%, exceeded the then-prevailing consensus of $10.52 billion and led to multiple analyst upgrades, including KeyCorp raising its fiscal Q2 2026 EPS forecast to $1.47.
2. Significant Expansion of AI Product Portfolio and Major Customer Commitments.
The "Advancing AI 2026" event on July 23, 2026, served as a pivotal moment, with AMD launching its next-generation AI infrastructure, including the 6th Gen AMD EPYC™ CPUs, AMD Instinct™ MI400 Series GPUs, and AMD Helios™ AI rack-scale solutions. The AMD Helios platform is positioned to offer up to 30% more inference tokens per dollar than competitors. Crucially, the company announced major customer commitments, including Anthropic's plan to deploy up to two gigawatts of AMD's MI455X GPUs through Helios systems, and OpenAI's partnership to optimize GPT models on Helios, with deployments starting in fiscal Q4 2026. Microsoft also committed to deploying the Helios platform in its Azure data centers, along with new Venice CPUs, for agentic AI workloads. Meta Platforms is validating AMD's latest processors and testing Helios systems for broader deployments.
3. Upward Revision of Long-Term AI Market Forecast and AMD's Strategic Ambition.
AMD CEO Lisa Su significantly raised the company's outlook for the AI chip market at the "Advancing AI 2026" conference, predicting the global AI chip market will reach approximately $1.4 trillion by 2030, a substantial increase from previous forecasts of $500 billion by 2028. Furthermore, AMD updated its CPU market total addressable market (TAM) to over $200 billion by 2030 and reiterated its goal to capture more than 50% of this market over the next three to four years. This expanded market opportunity, combined with AMD's aggressive market share targets, has fueled investor confidence in its long-term growth trajectory in AI and high-performance computing.
4. Robust Semiconductor Industry Growth Driven by AI Infrastructure Demand.
The broader semiconductor industry experienced strong momentum during fiscal Q2 2026, largely propelled by escalating demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The semiconductor sector is projected to account for a record 48% of the S&P 500's earnings growth in fiscal Q2 2026, a 17 percentage point increase from fiscal Q1 2026, with an anticipated 133% year-over-year earnings growth for semiconductor firms in the quarter. This significant macroeconomic tailwind, driven by accelerated deployment of AI servers, hyperscale data centers, and advanced networking equipment, has created a favorable environment for AMD as a key player in providing AI-optimized CPUs, GPUs, and full-stack AI solutions.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 156.6% change in AMD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 122.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 203.43 | 521.95 | 156.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,639 | 37,454 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.5% | 13.4% | 6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 76.4 | 170.0 | 122.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,627 | 1,631 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 156.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 156.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 67.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.3% | 81.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 143.7% change in AMD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 214.16 | 521.95 | 143.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,027 | 37,454 | 16.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 13.4% | 29.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 105.3 | 170.0 | 61.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,626 | 1,631 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 143.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 143.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 60.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.3% | 75.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 267.8% change in AMD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 141.90 | 521.95 | 267.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,750 | 37,454 | 35.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 13.4% | 66.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 103.2 | 170.0 | 64.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,620 | 1,631 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 267.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 267.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 55.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 39.5% | 69.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 358.2% change in AMD stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 681.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 113.91 | 521.95 | 358.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,067 | 37,454 | 62.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.7% | 13.4% | 681.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 464.6 | 170.0 | -63.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,611 | 1,631 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 358.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 358.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 60.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 106.1% | 71.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMD Return | 57% | -55% | 128% | -18% | 77% | 152% | 488% |
| Peers Return | 59% | -41% | 107% | 63% | 33% | 69% | 609% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMD Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 68% | 60% | 57% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMD Max Drawdown | -25% | -63% | -27% | -44% | -40% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -51% | -20% | -36% | -40% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: INTC, NVDA, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL. See AMD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Advanced Micro Devices's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AMD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2347 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 331.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 373 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3947 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Advanced Micro Devices's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a global semiconductor company that specializes in designing and producing a wide range of high-performance microprocessors and graphics processing units (GPUs). The company operates primarily through two segments: Computing and Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. AMD is a critical provider of the foundational computing technology that powers everything from personal computers to advanced data centers.
AMD's main product categories include central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs). For desktop and notebook personal computers, it offers CPUs under brands like AMD Ryzen and Athlon, and discrete GPUs under AMD Radeon graphics. Its powerful AMD EPYC microprocessors are designed for servers, while professional graphics products include AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro. Furthermore, AMD provides high-performance accelerators like Radeon Instinct and AMD Instinct for data centers and AI applications, and is a key supplier of semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products, notably for leading game consoles.
The company serves a diverse global customer base that includes major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for PCs and servers, public cloud service providers, and original design manufacturers (ODMs). AMD's technology is also integral to game console manufacturers. It reaches its markets through a combination of direct sales, independent distributors, sales representatives, system integrators, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers, ensuring its products are widely adopted across various computing and entertainment industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AMD is a semiconductor company that directly challenges Intel for computer processors (CPUs) and NVIDIA for graphics cards and AI accelerators (GPUs).
AI Analysis | Feedback
- x86 Microprocessors (APUs): Processors designed for desktop and notebook personal computers, often integrating CPU and GPU cores.
- Chipsets: Components that facilitate communication between the processor, memory, and other peripherals within a system.
- Graphics Processing Units (GPUs): Discrete and integrated graphics cards for a range of applications, including consumer PCs, professional workstations, and data centers.
- Server and Embedded Processors: High-performance processors specifically designed for use in servers, data centers, and specialized embedded computing systems.
- Semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) Products: Integrated circuits tailored to customer specifications, often combining CPU, GPU, and multimedia technologies, such as those used in game consoles.
- Development Services: Services that assist with the design and integration of AMD's CPU, GPU, and multimedia technologies into customer-specific solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) primarily operates on a Business-to-Business (B2B) model, selling its processors, graphics cards, and semi-custom solutions to other companies that integrate them into their final products or services.
The company's major customers include:
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): A significant customer for AMD's custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products used in Xbox game consoles, as well as for server processors (EPYC) and accelerators in its Azure cloud computing services.
- Sony Group Corp. (SONY): Another major customer for AMD's custom SoC products powering the PlayStation series of game consoles.
- Hewlett-Packard (HP) Inc. (HPQ): A leading Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) that incorporates AMD CPUs and GPUs into its desktop and notebook personal computers.
- Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL): A prominent OEM for personal computers and servers, utilizing AMD processors and graphics solutions in its product lines.
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): The parent company of Google Cloud, which deploys AMD EPYC server processors in its data centers to power its cloud computing services.
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, Amazon utilizes AMD EPYC server processors to deliver cloud infrastructure services.
- Lenovo Group Ltd. (HKG: 0992): A major global OEM for personal computers, workstations, and servers that integrates AMD's CPUs and GPUs into a wide range of its products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)
- GlobalFoundries (GFS)
- ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX)
- Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lisa Su, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Lisa Su joined AMD in 2012 and became President and CEO in October 2014, leading a significant turnaround of the company. Before AMD, she held senior leadership roles at Freescale Semiconductor, Inc., including Senior Vice President and General Manager of Networking and Multimedia, and Chief Technology Officer. Prior to Freescale, she spent 13 years at IBM in various engineering and business leadership positions, including Vice President of the Semiconductor Research and Development Center. At IBM, she was involved in developing silicon-on-insulator semiconductor manufacturing technologies and more efficient semiconductor chips, and she formed IBM's Emerging Products group, helping to transform industry standards by replacing aluminum interconnects with copper ones.
Jean Hu, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer
Jean Hu joined AMD in January 2023. Before joining AMD, she served as CFO of Marvell Technology Group Ltd. from August 2016 to January 2023. She also held CFO roles at QLogic Corporation from April 2011 to August 2016 and served as acting CEO of QLogic from May 2013 to February 2014 and from August 2015 to August 2016. Additionally, she was CFO and Senior Vice President, Business Development at Conexant Systems, Inc. from 2004 to 2011. She serves on the board of directors at Fortinet.
Mark Papermaster, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Mark Papermaster joined AMD in October 2011 and is responsible for the company's technical direction and product development, including leading the development of the "Zen" CPU architecture. Before AMD, he was the leader of Cisco's Silicon Engineering Group (2010-2011), Senior Vice President of Devices Hardware Engineering at Apple Inc. for iPod and iPhone products (2008-2010), and held multiple leadership roles at IBM for 26 years (1982-2008), involved in PowerPC technology development and the blade server division.
Rick Bergman, Executive Vice President of Computing and Graphics
Rick Bergman is currently AMD's Executive Vice President of Computing and Graphics, a role he returned to in 2019. He initially joined AMD in 2006 following its acquisition of ATI Technologies. From 2011 to 2019, he served as President and CEO of Synaptics. Before ATI, he held senior management positions at S3 Graphics, Texas Instruments, and IBM. He also served on the board of Maxwell Technologies from 2015 until its acquisition by Tesla in 2019 and was President and CEO of Kymeta Corporation from April 2024 to November 2025.
Victor Peng, President, Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group
Victor Peng rejoined AMD in 2022 as President, Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group, following AMD's acquisition of Xilinx. He previously served as President and CEO of Xilinx from 2018 to 2022, and prior to that, was COO and Executive Vice President & General Manager of Products at Xilinx. Before joining Xilinx in 2008, Peng worked at AMD as Corporate Vice President of the graphics products group silicon engineering. He has held executive and engineering leadership roles at TZero Technologies, MIPS Technologies, Silicon Graphics (SGI), and Digital Equipment Corporation. He announced his retirement from his presidential role at AMD effective August 30, 2024, continuing in an advisory capacity. In February 2025, he joined the Board of Directors of Microchip Technology, and he has also served on the Board of Directors of KLA Corporation since 2019.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the highly competitive nature of the semiconductor industry, cyclical demand for certain products, and its manufacturing model.
- Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Obsolescence: AMD operates in highly competitive markets for microprocessors (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs), where it directly competes with established giants like Intel and NVIDIA. AMD's success relies heavily on its ability to continuously innovate and introduce new products with superior features and performance on a timely basis. Failure to keep pace with technological advancements, particularly in critical areas like AI accelerators where NVIDIA holds a dominant position with its CUDA software ecosystem, could lead to a loss of market share and reduced revenue. Intel's aggressive product roadmaps also pose a constant threat in the client and server CPU segments.
- Decline in Gaming Segment Revenue due to Maturing Console Cycles and Customer Concentration: A significant portion of AMD's semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) revenue is derived from providing processors for game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. These console markets are cyclical, and as current console generations mature, demand for these SoCs naturally declines, leading to a contraction in AMD's gaming segment revenue. AMD's reliance on a limited number of key customers for these high-volume semi-custom products makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in console sales and potential shifts in supplier choices by these manufacturers. For instance, the gaming segment experienced a significant year-over-year decline in revenue in early 2024 due to waning demand as consoles entered their fifth year in the market.
- Dependence on Third-Party Manufacturing and Supply Chain Disruptions: Advanced Micro Devices operates a fabless business model, meaning it relies on third-party foundries, primarily Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), for the manufacturing of its chips. This dependence exposes AMD to risks related to manufacturing capacity constraints, potential production issues at these foundries, and broader global supply chain disruptions. Such issues can lead to product shortages, delays in bringing new products to market, increased costs, and ultimately, an inability to meet customer demand, thereby negatively impacting revenue and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threats for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are:
- The increasing trend among major customers, particularly public cloud service providers, to design and develop their own custom silicon (CPUs and AI accelerators) for their data centers. This strategic shift directly threatens AMD's market share and revenue from its EPYC server processors and Instinct accelerators by reducing reliance on external vendors for these critical components.
- The growing adoption and performance capabilities of ARM-based processors in core AMD markets, specifically for desktop personal computers, notebooks, and servers. The success of ARM-based solutions like Apple Silicon and the push by other companies into Windows on ARM, alongside the increasing use of ARM server processors by cloud providers, presents a fundamental architectural challenge to AMD's predominant x86 offerings in these segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) participates in several large and growing addressable markets for its main products and services:
-
Computing and Graphics Segment:
- Processors for Desktop and Notebook Personal Computers (CPUs): The global PC Processor Market was valued at approximately USD 120.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 168.26 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.3%.
- Discrete and Integrated Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for PCs: The global discrete GPU market was valued at USD 11.71 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 18.67 billion by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 6.5%. The broader global Graphics Card Market, which includes both discrete and integrated, was valued at USD 23.57 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 97.4 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 17.0%. The overall global GPU market is projected to expand from USD 82.99 billion in 2025 to USD 325.96 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 25.61%.
-
Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom Segment:
- Data Center and Professional GPUs (Accelerators): AMD projects the overall data center total addressable market (TAM) to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030 globally, growing from an estimated USD 200 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of over 40%. Specifically for AI accelerators, AMD estimates this market will exceed USD 526 billion by 2028 globally. Other reports suggest the global data center accelerator market was estimated at USD 68.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 393.8 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 34.0%.
- Server and Embedded Processors: The global CPU for Server market was valued at USD 21.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 33.26 billion by 2031, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.2%. Another estimate for the global Server Microprocessor Market is USD 24.0 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 43.0 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 6.0%. For embedded solutions, AMD has secured over USD 50 billion in design wins since 2022 for its adaptive and embedded portfolio, which also includes semi-custom solutions.
- Semi-Custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products (Game Consoles): AMD provides custom chips for leading game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. AMD has powered over one billion gaming devices, including game consoles, with its processors and graphics from 2008 to 2025. The value of AMD's secured semi-custom designs for various customers, including those in gaming, has been reported as $15 billion since 2022.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- Accelerated Demand for Data Center AI Processors (Instinct GPUs): AMD anticipates significant growth from its Instinct MI300 series GPUs, including the MI350, MI450, and future MI500 series, which are designed for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The company expects its data center AI revenues to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 80% in the next 3-5 years. This growth is fueled by substantial multi-year deals with major hyperscalers, such as Meta Platforms, which is poised to deploy up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of Instinct GPUs, and a partnership with OpenAI to deploy 6 GW of chips starting in the second half of 2026. AMD's strategy to foster an open software ecosystem with ROCm 7 is also aimed at reducing developer switching costs from competitors.
- Expansion and Market Share Gains in Server CPUs (EPYC Processors): AMD's EPYC server processors are a crucial driver, benefiting from strong demand and an expanding market. The company aims to achieve more than 50% server CPU revenue market share. The overall server CPU market is projected to grow by strong double digits in 2026, with AI-driven CPU workloads contributing significantly to this expansion, projected to fuel an 18% annual growth rate by 2030. Next-generation EPYC CPUs, such as "Turin" (based on Zen 5 architecture) and "Venice" (2nm), are expected to further bolster market share gains in cloud and enterprise environments.
- Growth in the Client and Gaming Segments: AMD expects to achieve a greater than 10% revenue CAGR across its Client and Gaming businesses. The client business, driven by AMD Ryzen processors, experienced 34% year-over-year growth in Q4 2025. AMD projects it will exceed 40% client revenue market share. The introduction of new Ryzen processors featuring integrated AI accelerators, such as the Ryzen 8000 series and upcoming "Strix Point," is set to capitalize on the emerging "AI PC" market, contributing to continued growth in 2026 despite potential broader market contractions.
- Diversification and Expansion in the Embedded Segment: The Embedded segment, encompassing adaptive SoCs, FPGAs, embedded x86 processors, and semi-custom silicon, returned to growth in Q4 2025. AMD anticipates a greater than 10% revenue CAGR for this segment and aims to exceed 70% revenue market share. The company plans to expand opportunities by growing its embedded x86 and semi-custom silicon markets, with automotive AI identified as a multi-billion dollar growth opportunity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In May 2025, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase program. This increased the total repurchase authority to approximately $10 billion, adding to the remaining balance of its existing program.
- AMD repurchased $1.3 billion in stock in 2025. As of December 27, 2025, approximately $9.4 billion remained available for future stock repurchases under the program.
- In February 2022, AMD approved a new $8 billion share repurchase program, building on a $4 billion program announced in May 2021. Under the May 2021 program, approximately $3 billion of shares had been repurchased.
Share Issuance
- As part of the ZT Systems acquisition in March and October 2025, AMD issued 9.1 million shares of its common stock.
- In February 2026, AMD issued Meta Platforms a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD common stock, structured to vest as specific milestones associated with Instinct GPU shipments are achieved under their strategic partnership.
- AMD issued a warrant to OpenAI in October 2025 to purchase up to an aggregate of 160 million shares of AMD's common stock at an exercise price of $0.01 per share, contingent on certain GPU purchase milestones and stock performance.
Outbound Investments
- AMD completed the acquisition of ZT Systems in March and October 2025, which involved a total of $2.0 billion in cash (net of cash acquired) and the issuance of 9.1 million shares of common stock, aimed at strengthening AI infrastructure.
- In February 2026, AMD announced a strategic investment of $150 million in Nutanix common stock and up to $100 million for joint engineering initiatives, as part of a multi-year strategic partnership to develop an open and scalable platform for enterprise AI.
- AMD made several acquisitions to bolster its AI capabilities, including Nod.ai (October 2023) for open-source AI software, Silo AI (July 2024, for $665 million) for AI model development, and Mipsology (August 2023) for AI inference software.
Capital Expenditures
- AMD's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $974 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- The average capital expenditures for fiscal years 2021 to 2025 was $581.4 million. Capital expenditures increased annually from $301 million in 2021 to $974 million in 2025.
- Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (2026) are projected to be approximately $1,371.6 million, supporting increased investments in product development, AI solutions, and go-to-market strategies.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 200.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 661.3 |
| Rev LTM | 50,760 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,879 |
| FCF LTM | 10,538 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,160 |
| CFO LTM | 14,610 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,818 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 33.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 71.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 130.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 661.3 |
| P/S | 19.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 81.9 |
| P/EBIT | 39.0 |
| P/E | 46.7 |
| P/CFO | 47.0 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 60.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 98.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 269.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 36.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 84.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 206.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 16,635 | 12,579 | 6,496 | 6,043 | 3,694 |
| Client | 10,640 | 7,054 | 4,651 | 6,201 | 6,887 |
| Gaming | 3,910 | 2,595 | 6,212 | 6,805 | 5,607 |
| Embedded | 3,454 | 3,557 | 5,321 | 4,552 | 246 |
| Total | 34,639 | 25,785 | 22,680 | 23,601 | 16,434 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 3,603 | 3,482 | 1,267 | 1,848 | 991 |
| Client and Gaming | 2,855 | 1,187 | |||
| Embedded | 1,243 | 1,421 | 2,628 | 2,252 | 44 |
| All Other | -4,007 | -4,190 | -4,419 | -4,979 | -409 |
| Client | -46 | 1,190 | 2,088 | ||
| Gaming | 971 | 953 | 934 | ||
| Total | 3,694 | 1,900 | 401 | 1,264 | 3,648 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1998 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core products | 5,619 | 5,647 | ||
| Core Products | 5,506 | |||
| AMD | 4,118 | |||
| Vantis | 135 | |||
| Total | 5,619 | 5,647 | 5,506 | 4,253 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $521.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 851.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/21/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $500.63 | $303.68 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.3% | 71.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 82.8% | 69.5% |
| Downside Capture | 421.71 | 291.14 |
| Upside Capture | 556.13 | 378.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 73.8% | 56.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.65 | 4.63 | 3.45 | 3.13 | 2.92 | 2.25 |
| Up Beta | 3.12 | 5.46 | 2.29 | 2.78 | 2.28 | 2.21 |
| Down Beta | 3.95 | 3.08 | 3.69 | 2.45 | 2.90 | 1.92 |
| Up Capture | 557% | 941% | 961% | 1068% | 1578% | 6599% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 42 | 71 | 138 | 389 |
| Down Capture | 263% | 329% | 256% | 200% | 171% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 21 | 54 | 113 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 230.6% | 69.4% | 2.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 35.9% | 24.8% | 1.19 | 70.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 55.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 28.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | 1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | -4.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.4% | 42.9% | -1.29 | 35.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 44.3% | 56.5% | 0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.4% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 73.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 64.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 16.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 9.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 29.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.7% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 30.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 59.1% | 57.1% | 1.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.88 | 64.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 18.6% | 26.2% | 47.3% |
| 2/3/2026 | -17.3% | -11.8% | -17.6% |
| 11/4/2025 | 2.5% | -5.0% | -12.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -6.4% | 0.4% | -7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.8% | 14.0% | 17.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -6.3% | -7.0% | -17.3% |
| 10/29/2024 | -10.6% | -14.8% | -18.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.4% | -6.0% | 5.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 8.3% | 14.2% | 19.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -6.1% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 26.2% | 47.3% |
| Max Negative | -17.3% | -14.8% | -18.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 18.6% | 26.2% | 47.3% |
| 2/3/2026 | -17.3% | -11.8% | -17.6% |
| 11/4/2025 | 2.5% | -5.0% | -12.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -6.4% | 0.4% | -7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.8% | 14.0% | 17.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -6.3% | -7.0% | -17.3% |
| 10/29/2024 | -10.6% | -14.8% | -18.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.4% | -6.0% | 5.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | -8.9% | -2.5% | 5.3% |
| 1/30/2024 | -2.5% | -2.4% | 11.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | 9.7% | 15.2% | 23.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | -7.0% | -3.7% | -9.4% |
| 5/2/2023 | -9.2% | 5.7% | 32.9% |
| 1/31/2023 | 12.6% | 14.3% | 7.0% |
| 10/6/2022 | -13.9% | -13.1% | -8.3% |
| 8/2/2022 | -1.2% | -3.8% | -14.5% |
| 5/3/2022 | 9.1% | -2.6% | 19.2% |
| 2/1/2022 | 5.1% | 9.8% | -4.1% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.5% | 3.8% | 28.4% |
| 7/27/2021 | 7.6% | 23.7% | 19.0% |
| 4/27/2021 | -1.4% | -7.7% | -8.1% |
| 1/26/2021 | -6.2% | -6.2% | -13.0% |
| 10/27/2020 | -4.1% | -9.2% | 3.5% |
| 7/28/2020 | 12.5% | 25.8% | 27.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 8.3% | 14.2% | 19.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -6.1% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 26.2% | 47.3% |
| Max Negative | -17.3% | -14.8% | -18.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/29/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 10.90 Bil | 11.20 Bil | 11.50 Bil | 14.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.80 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 56.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 55.0% for Q1 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 9.50 Bil | 9.80 Bil | 10.10 Bil | 2.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.60 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 55.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 54.5% for Q4 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 9.30 Bil | 9.60 Bil | 9.90 Bil | 10.3% | Higher New | Actual: 8.70 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 54.5% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 54.0% for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 556.43 | 6,000 | 3,338,580 | 686,460,457 | Form |
| 2 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 536.33 | 6,000 | 3,217,980 | 661,663,349 | Form |
| 3 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 460.69 | 125,000 | 57,585,715 | 1,334,559,991 | Form |
| 4 | Denzel, Nora | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 522.00 | 8,626 | 4,502,772 | 45,504,306 | Form | |
| 5 | Denzel, Nora | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 522.00 | 1,821 | 950,562 | 50,007,078 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 556.43 | 6,000 | 3,338,580 | 686,460,457 | Form |
| 2 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 536.33 | 6,000 | 3,217,980 | 661,663,349 | Form |
| 3 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 460.69 | 125,000 | 57,585,715 | 1,334,559,991 | Form |
| 4 | Denzel, Nora | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 522.00 | 8,626 | 4,502,772 | 45,504,306 | Form | |
| 5 | Denzel, Nora | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 522.00 | 1,821 | 950,562 | 50,007,078 | Form | |
| 6 | Norrod, Forrest Eugene | EVP & GM DESG | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 431.40 | 19,487 | 8,406,784 | 140,002,483 | Form |
| 7 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 433.79 | 6,000 | 2,602,740 | 535,161,084 | Form |
| 8 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 445.51 | 125,000 | 55,688,359 | 1,346,276,778 | Form |
| 9 | Grasby, Paul Darren | EVP & CSO | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 444.39 | 24,376 | 10,832,451 | 46,759,605 | Form |
| 10 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 350.00 | 31,320 | 10,962,000 | 432,612,950 | Form |
| 11 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 275.00 | 27,109 | 7,454,975 | 348,523,175 | Form |
| 12 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 255.54 | 6,000 | 1,533,240 | 330,787,842 | Form |
| 13 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 225.00 | 3,293 | 740,925 | 291,254,850 | Form |
| 14 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 198.77 | 85,000 | 16,895,157 | 625,320,780 | Form |
| 15 | Grasby, Paul Darren | EVP & CSO | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 204.87 | 7,500 | 1,536,525 | 26,550,742 | Form |
| 16 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 200.00 | 3,034 | 606,800 | 259,551,800 | Form |
| 17 | Hahn, Ava | SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 198.65 | 286 | 56,814 | 3,419,958 | Form |
| 18 | Hu, Jean X | EVP, CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 201.62 | 19,956 | 4,023,581 | 5,030,081 | Form |
| 19 | Norrod, Forrest Eugene | EVP & GM DESG | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 216.81 | 19,450 | 4,216,969 | 62,679,548 | Form |
| 20 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 214.36 | 125,000 | 26,794,875 | 675,761,605 | Form |
| 21 | Hahn, Ava | SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 234.42 | 2,442 | 572,454 | 3,834,877 | Form |
| 22 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 215.14 | 125,000 | 26,891,905 | 705,100,585 | Form |
| 23 | Grasby, Paul Darren | EVP & CSO | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 218.77 | 10,000 | 2,187,700 | 29,171,667 | Form |
| 24 | Hu, Jean X | EVP, CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 209.96 | 14,506 | 3,045,741 | 5,360,806 | Form |
| 25 | Norrod, Forrest Eugene | EVP & GM DESG | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 229.37 | 19,450 | 4,461,296 | 68,891,587 | Form |
| 26 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 240.12 | 17,108 | 4,107,935 | 411,683,151 | Form |
| 27 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 224.28 | 16,800 | 3,767,863 | 384,524,964 | Form |
| 28 | Hahn, Ava | SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 226.01 | 2,868 | 648,197 | 2,041,548 | Form |
| 29 | Norrod, Forrest Eugene | EVP & GM DESG | Direct | Sell | 9252025 | 165.01 | 2,250 | 371,272 | 51,416,786 | Form |
| 30 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 159.20 | 16,800 | 2,674,513 | 272,944,412 | Form |
| 31 | Norrod, Forrest Eugene | EVP & GM DESG | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 160.93 | 17,200 | 2,768,021 | 50,508,021 | Form |
| 32 | Hahn, Ava | SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 158.10 | 143 | 22,608 | 1,881,548 | Form |
| 33 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8232025 | 163.97 | 225,000 | 36,893,351 | 550,899,394 | Form |
| 34 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 178.11 | 16,800 | 2,992,244 | 306,592,843 | Form |
| 35 | Grasby, Paul Darren | EVP & CSO | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 173.21 | 10,000 | 1,732,100 | 21,738,721 | Form |
| 36 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 7162025 | 155.03 | 17,998 | 2,790,187 | 265,672,383 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 25, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ossiam | $808.3 Mil | 14.2% | 388 | ADD +39.7% | 13F |
| Dream Peak Capital Ltd | $91.5 Mil | 13.6% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Light Street Capital Management, LLC | $44.6 Mil | 9.0% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Once Capital Management, LLC | $25.5 Mil | 6.8% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $19.0 Mil | 6.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $36.5 Mil | 6.2% | 21 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $79.1 Mil | 5.8% | 20 | TRIM -25.3% | 13F |
| Estuary Capital Management LP | $34.5 Mil | 5.8% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $239.4 Mil | 5.5% | 33 | ADD +21.5% | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $15.5 Mil | 5.3% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Nepsis Inc. | $15.7 Mil | 5.3% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $28.5 Mil | 5.0% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $12.4 Mil | 4.7% | 28 | TRIM -42.0% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $183.1 Mil | 3.8% | 41 | ADD +50.0% | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $132.4 Mil | 3.6% | 41 | ADD +65.1% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $32.6 Mil | 3.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $11.0 Mil | 3.5% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $15.9 Mil | 3.3% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $293.5 Mil | 3.1% | 29 | TRIM -11.8% | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $21.6 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $12.4 Mil | 3.0% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Milestones Administradora de Recursos Ltda. | $10.4 Mil | 2.7% | 17 | ADD +15.6% | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $19.0 Mil | 2.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $18.9 Mil | 2.6% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $47.0 Mil | 2.6% | 49 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $107.2 Mil | 2.5% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Dream Peak Capital Ltd | $91.5 Mil | 13.6% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $32.6 Mil | 3.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $32.2 Mil | 2.6% | 25 | New | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $21.6 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $19.0 Mil | 2.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $19.0 Mil | 6.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $18.9 Mil | 2.6% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $47.0 Mil | 2.6% | 49 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $132.4 Mil | 3.6% | 41 | ADD +65.1% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $183.1 Mil | 3.8% | 41 | ADD +50.0% | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $36.5 Mil | 6.2% | 21 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Ossiam | $808.3 Mil | 14.2% | 388 | ADD +39.7% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $239.4 Mil | 5.5% | 33 | ADD +21.5% | 13F |
| Milestones Administradora de Recursos Ltda. | $10.4 Mil | 2.7% | 17 | ADD +15.6% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $77.1 Mil | 4.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $69.6 Mil | 1.0% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $28.8 Mil | 6.4% | 10 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Fund 1 Investments, LLC | $18.7 Mil | 2.7% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nationale-Nederlanden Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. | $10.9 Mil | 1.0% | 48 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $10.0 Mil | 1.1% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $7.5 Mil | 2.5% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| M & L Capital Management Ltd | $5.5 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Paloma Partners Management Co | $5.0 Mil | 1.7% | 47 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $12.4 Mil | 4.7% | 28 | TRIM -42.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $6.2 Mil | 2.0% | 40 | TRIM -39.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $51.8 Mil | 2.4% | 41 | TRIM -33.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $79.1 Mil | 5.8% | 20 | TRIM -25.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $293.5 Mil | 3.1% | 29 | TRIM -11.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $5.4 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | TRIM -11.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ossiam | $808.3 Mil | 14.2% | 388 | ADD +39.7% | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $293.5 Mil | 3.1% | 29 | TRIM -11.8% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $239.4 Mil | 5.5% | 33 | ADD +21.5% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $183.1 Mil | 3.8% | 41 | ADD +50.0% | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $132.4 Mil | 3.6% | 41 | ADD +65.1% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $107.2 Mil | 2.5% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Dream Peak Capital Ltd | $91.5 Mil | 13.6% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $79.1 Mil | 5.8% | 20 | TRIM -25.3% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $51.8 Mil | 2.4% | 41 | TRIM -33.5% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $47.0 Mil | 2.6% | 49 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Light Street Capital Management, LLC | $44.6 Mil | 9.0% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $36.5 Mil | 6.2% | 21 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Estuary Capital Management LP | $34.5 Mil | 5.8% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $32.6 Mil | 3.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $32.2 Mil | 2.6% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $28.5 Mil | 5.0% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Once Capital Management, LLC | $25.5 Mil | 6.8% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $21.6 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $19.0 Mil | 2.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $19.0 Mil | 6.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $18.9 Mil | 2.6% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $15.9 Mil | 3.3% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Nepsis Inc. | $15.7 Mil | 5.3% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $15.5 Mil | 5.3% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $14.2 Mil | 1.4% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
AMD Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high. Data Center revenue growth is accelerating, hitting 57% year-over-year, driven by AI demand. Management more than doubled its server CPU market forecast to over $120 billion. Multi-gigawatt GPU commitments from major AI firms provide strong visibility into a durable growth cycle, with key product ramps on track for H2 2026.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Performance Component Supplier(Number of Units Sold) x (Average Selling Price), driven by volume growth and mix shift to higher-value products. Mix shift towards the higher-margin Data Center segment, driven by the AI infrastructure build-out.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. Accelerating Data Center growth and multi-gigawatt AI accelerator deals with OpenAI and Meta signal a structural shift beyond just competing with Intel in CPUs.
- Data Center revenue growth accelerated to 57% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
- Management raised its server CPU market forecast to over $120 billion by 2030.
- The company secured agreements to deploy 6 gigawatts of GPUs each with OpenAI and Meta.
- Q2 2026 revenue is guided to grow 46% year-over-year at the midpoint.
- The production ramp of the Helios platform is on track for the second half of the year.
PRIMARY RISK
The second half ramp of the complex Helios platform is a critical execution test. NVIDIA, with an entrenched software ecosystem, remains the dominant AI player. A new partnership between NVIDIA and Intel could increase pricing pressure and competition across data center and client products, limiting AMD's ultimate share.
- NVIDIA's TTM revenue is $253.5 billion versus AMD's $37.5 billion.
- NVIDIA leverages a proprietary software ecosystem, creating high switching costs for customers.
- A partnership between Nvidia and Intel was announced in September 2025.
- Management plans for lower PC and Gaming shipments in H2 2026 due to component costs.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center Segment Revenue Growth | 57% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth in the Data Center segment has shown powerful and consistent acceleration over the last three quarters, nearly tripling from 22% to 57%. This indicates a structural inflection in demand, which management attributes to AI infrastructure build-outs for both its EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs. Sequential growth remains positive but has moderated. |
| Client and Gaming Segment Revenue Growth | 23% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Decelerating | The Client and Gaming segment's year-over-year growth is decelerating from a very high base in late 2025, though it remains robust at 23%. Management attributes the recent sequential declines to seasonality and lower semi-custom revenue at this stage of the console cycle. The company still expects the client business to outperform the market. |
| EPYC-powered cloud instances | nearly 1,600 (Q1 2026) | Indicates the adoption and market penetration of AMD's server CPUs within the major global cloud providers, a key growth vector. |
| Embedded Design Wins (Annual) | $17 billion (FY2025) | Represents future revenue potential in the Embedded segment, indicating long-term customer commitment and adoption of AMD's embedded product portfolio. |
AI Inflection vs. Consumer Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the accelerating Data Center, where growth hit 57% YoY. They believe the massive server CPU TAM revision to over $120 billion and huge AI deals with Meta and OpenAI signal a durable, high-margin growth cycle.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating 57% Data Center growth overcome the planned slowdown in PC and Gaming shipments for the second half of 2026?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The market is rewarding the AI inflection. The stock rose 23% on the Data Center acceleration, signaling that this structural trend currently outweighs the cyclical consumer weakness.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the consumer headwind, with management planning for lower PC and gaming shipments in H2 2026 due to rising component costs. They worry this cyclical drag will offset some of the AI-driven gains and disappoint high expectations.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/20/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Marvell Technology (MRVL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/2/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Broadcom (AVGO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/21/2026 | Competitive Read-Through Watch: Competitor data center revenue and guidance, particularly commentary on market share, pricing, and AI accelerator demand. |
11/2/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Company is scheduled to report its next earnings. |
in the second half of the year | Meta Custom GPU Shipments Watch: Shipments of custom GPU accelerator for Meta are on track to begin. |
in the second half of the year | Helios Platform Production Ramp Watch: Company plans to ramp Helios production shipments. |
later this year | Venice Processor Launch Watch: Launch of 6th Gen EPYC 'Venice' processor is on track. |
in the second half of 2026 | OpenAI Capacity Deployment Watch: First gigawatt of MI450 series accelerators for OpenAI scheduled to start coming online. |
in the second half of the year | Consumer Demand Slowdown Watch: Weakness in PC or gaming results from peers or component suppliers, or downward guidance revisions on those segments. |
in the second half of the year | AI Platform Execution Watch: Any announced delays in the Helios or MI450 ramp, or negative commentary from launch partners like Supermicro. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-21 | Major GPU Agreement with Meta Details: The company amended a purchase agreement with Meta, which 'agreed to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs' and received a warrant to purchase up to 160 million shares. | +8.1% $503.57 -> $544.43 |
2026-07-16 | Exclusive Gaming CPU Launch Details: Partner Newegg launched the AMD Ryzen 7 7700X3D processor, a new gaming chip available exclusively in North America through the e-tailer. | -6.3% $529.14 -> $495.76 |
2026-06-02 | Helios Platform Showcase Details: Partner Supermicro showcased the next-generation AMD Helios rack-scale platform at the Computex trade show, highlighting a 72-GPU double-width rack powered by AMD Instinct MI455X GPUs. | +6.3% $510.13 -> $542.52 |
2026-05-21 | Venice CPU Production Ramp Details: AMD announced it began the production ramp of its 6th Gen EPYC CPUs, codenamed 'Venice,' on TSMC's 2nm process technology. | +4.5% $447.58 -> $467.51 |
2026-05-05 | Strong Q1 Earnings and Guidance Details: The company reported strong Q1 2026 results and raised Q2 revenue guidance by 14.3%, leading to a positive two-day stock reaction of 23.0%. | +23.4% $341.54 -> $421.39 |
2026-02-03 | Stock Falls After Earnings Details: Following the Q4 2025 earnings report, the stock had a two-day reaction of -19.0% as 'Wall Street Adjusts AI Revenue Expectations'. | -18.7% $246.27 -> $200.19 |
2026-01-29 | Analyst Upgrades Stock Details: An analyst upgraded AMD to 'Buy' ahead of Q4 earnings, citing robust AI accelerator demand and hyperscaler CapEx momentum. | -6.3% $252.74 -> $236.73 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AMD trades at roughly 82% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (5.5x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation
Dominant AI IncumbentNVIDIA offers dominant exposure to the AI accelerator market with 74.1% gross margins and an entrenched proprietary software ecosystem, representing a more established, scaled, and profitable play on AI infrastructure.
INTC - Intel Corporation
Value Turnaround PlayIntel provides exposure to the x86 CPU market with a much larger revenue base of $53.8 billion and an integrated manufacturing model, offering a value-oriented turnaround story if it can regain technological leadership.
AMD is a primary arms dealer for the AI infrastructure build-out, leveraging its leadership in high-performance server CPUs and a rapidly scaling AI accelerator business to capture a significant share of the data center market.
AMD's growth trajectory has inflected, driven by its Data Center segment. The company is capitalizing on the AI boom with both its EPYC CPUs, which are critical for orchestrating AI workloads, and its Instinct GPUs. This dual-pronged strategy, combined with share gains in the PC market, positions AMD as a key beneficiary of the increasing demand for high-performance compute across cloud, enterprise, and consumer markets.
Announcements of large-scale, multi-gigawatt deployments of Instinct GPUs with major AI players like OpenAI or Meta, or data showing continued market share gains for EPYC server CPUs.
Evidence of competitors' next-generation products significantly outperforming AMD's offerings, major supply disruptions from manufacturing partners like TSMC, or a sharp downturn in data center capital expenditures.
Minor desktop CPU product launches or news related to 'wet AMD' (age-related macular degeneration), which is an unrelated medical condition.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful ramp of the next-generation MI450 series GPUs and Helios rack-scale solutions in the second half of 2026, which is expected to significantly scale the Data Center AI business.
Data Center
$16.6B TTM (48% of Total) · 22% MarginWhat It Is
Sells server-class CPUs (EPYC), GPUs and AI accelerators (Instinct), DPUs, AI NICs, and FPGAs to hyperscale data centers, OEMs, ODMs, and system integrators.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscale cloud providers and enterprises pay for these components to meet the growing computational demands of AI, cloud computing, and large-scale data analysis, driven by the products' performance and efficiency.
Competition
Client and Gaming
$10.6B TTM (31% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
Sells CPUs and APUs (Ryzen) for desktops and notebooks, discrete GPUs (Radeon), and semi-custom SoCs for game consoles to PC OEMs, distributors, and game console manufacturers like Sony and Microsoft.
Who Pays & How
PC OEMs (like Dell, HP, a business partner) and consumers (via distributors) pay for processors for consumer and commercial PCs. Game console manufacturers pay for semi-custom chips that power their platforms.
Competition
Embedded
$3.5B TTM (10% of Total) · 36% MarginWhat It Is
Sells embedded CPUs, APUs, FPGAs, and adaptive SoCs to a wide range of markets including automotive, industrial, aerospace and defense, and communications infrastructure.
Who Pays & How
Manufacturers in various industrial and high-tech sectors pay for these components for applications requiring high performance, low power, and long lifecycles, such as automation systems and networking equipment.
Competition
Advanced Micro Devices — Investor Video Playlist








Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductors Resources |
| EE Times |
| Semiconductor Engineering |
| Semiconductor Digest |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
