Tearsheet

Ambac Financial (AMBC)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $9.07 | Market Cap: $436.4 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Ambac Financial (AMBC)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $9.07
Market Cap: $436.4 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -164%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -164%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AMBC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

While the precise stock price for Ambac Financial (AMBC) on July 31, 2025, is not readily available to calculate the exact 7.5% movement, several significant events occurred between that approximate time and November 20, 2025, that could have influenced the stock's performance. The stock's closing price on November 18, 2025, was $9.08, and a previous close of $9.51 was noted for November 19, 2025. Here are five key points that likely contributed to Ambac Financial's stock movement during this period:

1. Better-than-Expected Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Ambac Financial Group reported its third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, 2025, showing an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.21, which surpassed the consensus estimate of -$0.23. The company also exceeded revenue expectations, reporting $66.61 million against an estimated $56.77 million. Despite a net loss, the insurance distribution segment experienced an 80% year-over-year revenue increase.

2. Corporate Rebranding and Strategic Focus: Effective November 20, 2025, Ambac Financial Group, Inc. announced its rebranding to Octave Specialty Group, Inc., accompanied by a change in its NYSE ticker symbol from AMBC to OSG. This move, reported on November 10, 2025, signifies a strategic shift following the sale of its legacy financial guarantee business, with a renewed focus on the growth and profitability of its specialty property and casualty (P&C) businesses.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AMBC Return-29%4%9%-6%-23%-29%-58%
Peers Return-8%36%12%10%24%3%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AMBC Win Rate42%50%58%42%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate53%68%57%58%63%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AMBC Max Drawdown-57%-13%-55%-35%-37%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-2%-12%-18%-4%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AFL, MFC, MET, PRU, PFG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAMBCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven152.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven142.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-100.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4820952.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to AFL, MFC, MET, PRU, PFG


In The Past

Ambac Financial's stock fell -60.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -60.4% loss requires a 152.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Ambac Financial (AMBC)

Better Bets than Ambac Financial (AMBC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AMBC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.2%-1.2%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.2%-8.2%-8.2%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.4%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.0%8.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.2%-1.2%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.2%-8.2%-8.2%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.4%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.0%8.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ambac Financial

Financials

AMBCAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameAmbac Fi.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
Mkt Price9.03109.4033.8574.76103.5683.1178.94
Mkt Cap0.458.057.949.736.818.543.2
Rev LTM14817,96247,46270,76057,92615,80132,712
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-372,57328,60814,6275,2744,1724,723
FCF 3Y Avg293,05723,42413,5455,7814,0294,905
CFO LTM-372,57328,60814,6275,2744,2524,763
CFO 3Y Avg293,05723,42413,5455,7814,1174,949

Growth & Margins

AMBCAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameAmbac Fi.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
Rev Chg LTM41.4%3.0%10.0%0.2%-21.0%12.3%6.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg118.6%-3.5%1.5%1.3%1.9%-4.1%1.4%
Rev Chg Q7.7%57.9%21.7%-7.7%-8.2%22.2%14.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%10.8%6.1%-2.0%-2.7%4.4%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-25.2%14.3%60.3%20.7%9.1%26.9%17.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg239.3%16.8%54.5%19.6%9.4%28.1%23.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-25.2%14.3%60.3%20.7%9.1%26.4%17.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg239.3%16.8%54.5%19.6%9.4%27.5%23.6%

Valuation

AMBCAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameAmbac Fi.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
Mkt Cap0.458.057.949.736.818.543.2
P/S2.93.21.20.70.61.21.2
P/EBIT-3.210.96.48.3--7.4
P/E-0.613.99.612.914.111.712.3
P/CFO-11.722.52.03.47.04.33.9
Total Yield-159.9%9.2%16.0%10.8%12.3%12.2%11.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%5.6%3.0%5.2%3.7%3.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.5%5.7%51.2%25.3%15.0%21.8%18.4%
D/E0.30.10.20.40.60.20.3
Net D/E-0.4-1.2-0.2-1.9-1.3-1.5-1.3

Returns

AMBCAFLMFCMETPRUPFGMedian
NameAmbac Fi.Aflac Manulife.MetLife Prudenti.Principa. 
1M Rtn8.4%1.1%6.3%-4.4%3.4%5.2%4.3%
3M Rtn6.4%1.9%12.5%-4.7%-2.1%6.6%4.1%
6M Rtn19.3%6.8%10.0%-2.6%4.4%9.6%8.2%
12M Rtn-26.7%1.1%7.0%-6.9%-12.6%2.5%-2.9%
3Y Rtn-39.8%64.8%120.0%8.7%13.3%1.7%11.0%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%3.0%7.8%-3.3%4.4%6.1%5.2%
3M Excs Rtn2.1%-2.6%8.3%-9.2%-6.4%2.4%-0.3%
6M Excs Rtn5.6%-6.9%-3.6%-16.2%-9.3%-4.1%-5.5%
12M Excs Rtn-40.0%-12.3%-6.4%-20.8%-26.8%-13.5%-17.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.3%3.3%52.8%-56.7%-55.5%-69.2%-56.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance64182  
Insurance Distribution523126  
Corporate & Other945  
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance  250  
Financial Guarantee   156496
Total12554283156496


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance Distribution644  
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance0-6-8  
Corporate & Other-31-33-17  
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance  4  
Total-25-36-17  


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Discontinued operations7,5167,292   
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance523316156  
Corporate & Other234226182  
Insurance Distribution15513893  
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance  11,871  
Total8,4287,97312,302  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,586,948
Short Interest: % Change Since 1015202516.3%
Average Daily Volume630,003
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.11
Basic Shares Quantity48,116,503
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/202516.0%5.5% 
8/7/2025-16.3%-3.3%10.7%
5/12/2025-19.8%-4.3%-18.0%
2/26/2025-10.8%-22.3%-23.8%
11/12/202410.2%5.3%13.0%
8/5/2024-10.9%-5.1%-2.3%
2/27/20242.4%-9.3%-8.3%
11/7/20237.4%20.0%20.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive897
# Negative151416
Median Positive7.7%5.5%20.0%
Median Negative-6.6%-4.7%-9.0%
Max Positive17.8%37.2%54.4%
Max Negative-19.8%-22.3%-39.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LeBlanc ClaudeChief Executive Officer8112025Buy7.0325,000175,7504,241,136Form
1Stein Jeffrey Scott5152025Buy6.4510,00064,500290,250Form
2PRICE MICHAEL D 5142025Buy6.4976,923499,2301,078,865Form
3LeBlanc ClaudeChief Executive Officer5142025Buy6.5040,000260,0003,758,892Form