Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -114%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.7%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.5%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil
  Key risks
AFL key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the Japanese market and the associated currency fluctuations.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -114%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.7%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.5%
9 Key risks
AFL key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the Japanese market and the associated currency fluctuations.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AFL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat. Aflac reported third-quarter 2025 earnings that significantly surpassed market expectations, with earnings per share reaching $2.49 against a forecast of $1.77, and revenue of $4.74 billion exceeding the anticipated $4.37 billion. This robust financial performance immediately contributed to an after-hours stock increase.

2. Increased Dividend Payout. The company announced a 5.2% increase in its first-quarter 2026 dividend, setting the new dividend at $0.61 per share. This commitment to returning value to shareholders through a higher dividend can positively influence investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFL Return-14%35%26%17%28%8%139%
Peers Return-9%30%30%4%29%9%124%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFL Win Rate42%83%67%67%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate53%60%62%60%62%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFL Max Drawdown-52%-3%-8%-14%-8%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-3%-8%-20%-3%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNM, MET, CI, PRU, HIG. See AFL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven138 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven17.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven648 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven493.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2606 days1480 days

Compare to TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU


In The Past

Aflac's stock fell -20.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.4% loss requires a 25.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Aflac (AFL)

Better Bets than Aflac (AFL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aflac

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AFLUNMMETCIPRUHIGMedian
NameAflac Unum MetLife Cigna Prudenti.Hartford. 
Mkt Price110.5677.9182.57274.05115.69138.48113.13
Mkt Cap58.613.354.972.941.138.948.0
Rev LTM17,96212,98370,760261,22057,92627,69242,809
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM2,57368914,6273,9445,2745,8654,609
FCF 3Y Avg3,0571,00513,5457,7735,7814,9225,351
CFO LTM2,57381614,6275,2925,2745,9885,283
CFO 3Y Avg3,0571,13413,5459,1975,7815,1095,445

Growth & Margins

AFLUNMMETCIPRUHIGMedian
NameAflac Unum MetLife Cigna Prudenti.Hartford. 
Rev Chg LTM3.0%2.1%0.2%20.9%-21.0%6.9%2.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.5%3.2%1.3%13.6%1.9%8.6%2.6%
Rev Chg Q57.9%4.9%-7.7%11.2%-8.2%6.4%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.8%1.2%-2.0%2.7%-2.7%1.6%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM14.3%6.3%20.7%2.0%9.1%21.6%11.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.8%9.0%19.6%4.4%9.4%19.6%13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM14.3%5.3%20.7%1.5%9.1%21.2%11.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.8%8.0%19.6%3.8%9.4%18.9%13.1%

Valuation

AFLUNMMETCIPRUHIGMedian
NameAflac Unum MetLife Cigna Prudenti.Hartford. 
Mkt Cap58.613.354.972.941.138.948.0
P/S3.31.00.80.30.61.40.9
P/EBIT11.29.79.29.2-8.19.2
P/E14.214.514.315.314.110.514.2
P/CFO23.016.23.714.57.06.310.7
Total Yield9.0%9.2%9.8%8.6%12.3%11.1%9.5%
Dividend Yield2.0%2.3%2.8%2.1%5.2%1.6%2.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.7%9.2%25.3%9.0%15.0%15.8%12.1%
D/E0.10.30.40.40.60.10.3
Net D/E-1.1-2.4-1.70.3-1.3-0.5-1.2

Returns

AFLUNMMETCIPRUHIGMedian
NameAflac Unum MetLife Cigna Prudenti.Hartford. 
1M Rtn-1.5%2.6%9.3%1.6%11.8%5.3%4.0%
3M Rtn1.7%4.4%5.7%-7.1%13.8%6.5%5.0%
6M Rtn8.9%0.5%6.7%-11.9%14.0%11.8%7.8%
12M Rtn10.0%9.4%4.6%5.3%2.4%29.1%7.3%
3Y Rtn71.1%116.9%26.8%-11.6%37.2%97.8%54.2%
1M Excs Rtn-2.3%1.9%8.6%0.8%11.0%4.6%3.2%
3M Excs Rtn1.6%1.4%3.8%-7.5%11.5%4.5%2.7%
6M Excs Rtn-3.5%-11.9%-5.7%-24.3%1.7%-0.6%-4.6%
12M Excs Rtn-3.0%-3.1%-8.7%-11.9%-10.1%14.6%-5.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-1.7%42.5%-44.6%-83.2%-37.5%27.2%-19.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment18,841    
Accident 1,3141,362  
Adjusted net investment income 3,4243,7853,3643,216
Amortized hedge costs 112   
Amortized hedge income -68   
Cancer 4,7025,8297,3947,340
Corporate and other 267175384393
Critical care 1,7531,797  
Dental/vision 199188  
Disability 1,1711,162  
Hospital indemnity 722730  
Life insurance 2,1502,9563,2533,445
Medical and other health 2,7063,4003,5963,582
Net interest (income) expense from derivatives associated with certain investment strategies 90   
Net investment gains (losses) 363517-17351
Other 3943  
Other income 19616214467
Accident/disability   2,6142,665
Other health   1,5711,548
Total18,84119,14022,10622,14722,307


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,792,432
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.6%
Average Daily Volume2,662,454
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.55
Basic Shares Quantity530,050,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/20252.2%4.6%1.0%
8/5/20253.4%4.7%10.3%
4/30/2025-4.7%-1.6%-4.2%
2/5/2025-3.9%-4.1%1.6%
10/30/2024-4.8%-1.4%4.0%
7/31/20246.6%4.1%15.5%
5/1/2024-0.6%0.3%6.9%
1/31/2024-9.7%-6.5%-4.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131515
# Negative1199
Median Positive2.6%3.5%6.7%
Median Negative-3.9%-3.8%-5.0%
Max Positive6.6%6.9%29.8%
Max Negative-9.7%-12.5%-19.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021