Aflac (AFL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $108.71 | Market Cap: $57.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance
Aflac (AFL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $108.71Market Cap: $57.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AFL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information for Aflac (AFL) for the specified period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. It also provides stock price data and news, particularly regarding Q3 2025 earnings. This allows me to analyze potential reasons for stock movement.
Here are the key points for Aflac's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Aflac's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations. Aflac reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.49, significantly surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $1.77. Net earnings per diluted share soared to $3.08 in Q3 2025 from a loss in the prior year, primarily due to net investment gains. Total revenues also exceeded Wall Street's expectations, rising 10.6% year-over-year to $4.74 billion. This strong earnings beat likely contributed positively to the stock's performance.
2. Increased Share Repurchases and Dividend Growth. Aflac announced a record $1.0 billion in share repurchases for Q3 2025, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Additionally, the company increased its quarterly dividend rate from $0.58 to $0.61, a 5.17% increase, continuing its 43-year streak of dividend increases. These actions signal management's confidence in the company's financial health and can boost investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AFL Return | -14% | 35% | 26% | 17% | 28% | 8% | 138% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 39% | 13% | 5% | 25% | 9% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AFL Win Rate | 42% | 83% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 58% | 60% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AFL Max Drawdown | -52% | -3% | -8% | -14% | -8% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -2% | -10% | -21% | -1% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU. See AFL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AFL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 648 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 493.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2606 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU
In The Past
Aflac's stock fell -20.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.4% loss requires a 25.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aflac
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 18,841 | ||||
| Accident | 1,314 | 1,362 | |||
| Adjusted net investment income | 3,424 | 3,785 | 3,364 | 3,216 | |
| Amortized hedge costs | 112 | ||||
| Amortized hedge income | -68 | ||||
| Cancer | 4,702 | 5,829 | 7,394 | 7,340 | |
| Corporate and other | 267 | 175 | 384 | 393 | |
| Critical care | 1,753 | 1,797 | |||
| Dental/vision | 199 | 188 | |||
| Disability | 1,171 | 1,162 | |||
| Hospital indemnity | 722 | 730 | |||
| Life insurance | 2,150 | 2,956 | 3,253 | 3,445 | |
| Medical and other health | 2,706 | 3,400 | 3,596 | 3,582 | |
| Net interest (income) expense from derivatives associated with certain investment strategies | 90 | ||||
| Net investment gains (losses) | 363 | 517 | -173 | 51 | |
| Other | 39 | 43 | |||
| Other income | 196 | 162 | 144 | 67 | |
| Accident/disability | 2,614 | 2,665 | |||
| Other health | 1,571 | 1,548 | |||
| Total | 18,841 | 19,140 | 22,106 | 22,147 | 22,307 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Life & Health Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |