Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AFL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results provide information for Aflac (AFL) for the specified period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. It also provides stock price data and news, particularly regarding Q3 2025 earnings. This allows me to analyze potential reasons for stock movement. Here are the key points for Aflac's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Aflac's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations. Aflac reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.49, significantly surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $1.77. Net earnings per diluted share soared to $3.08 in Q3 2025 from a loss in the prior year, primarily due to net investment gains. Total revenues also exceeded Wall Street's expectations, rising 10.6% year-over-year to $4.74 billion. This strong earnings beat likely contributed positively to the stock's performance.

2. Increased Share Repurchases and Dividend Growth. Aflac announced a record $1.0 billion in share repurchases for Q3 2025, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Additionally, the company increased its quarterly dividend rate from $0.58 to $0.61, a 5.17% increase, continuing its 43-year streak of dividend increases. These actions signal management's confidence in the company's financial health and can boost investor sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFL Return-14%35%26%17%28%8%138%
Peers Return-10%39%13%5%25%9%103%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFL Win Rate42%83%67%67%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate58%63%58%60%65%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFL Max Drawdown-52%-3%-8%-14%-8%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-2%-10%-21%-1%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU. See AFL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven138 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven17.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven648 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven493.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2606 days1480 days

Compare to TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU


In The Past

Aflac's stock fell -20.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.4% loss requires a 25.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Aflac (AFL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aflac

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AFLTRVMETAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameAflac Traveler.MetLife American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
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Growth & Margins

AFLTRVMETAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameAflac Traveler.MetLife American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
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Valuation

AFLTRVMETAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameAflac Traveler.MetLife American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
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Returns

AFLTRVMETAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameAflac Traveler.MetLife American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment18,841    
Accident 1,3141,362  
Adjusted net investment income 3,4243,7853,3643,216
Amortized hedge costs 112   
Amortized hedge income -68   
Cancer 4,7025,8297,3947,340
Corporate and other 267175384393
Critical care 1,7531,797  
Dental/vision 199188  
Disability 1,1711,162  
Hospital indemnity 722730  
Life insurance 2,1502,9563,2533,445
Medical and other health 2,7063,4003,5963,582
Net interest (income) expense from derivatives associated with certain investment strategies 90   
Net investment gains (losses) 363517-17351
Other 3943  
Other income 19616214467
Accident/disability   2,6142,665
Other health   1,5711,548
Total18,84119,14022,10622,14722,307


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,970,078
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.6%
Average Daily Volume2,272,360
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.07
Basic Shares Quantity530,050,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021