Alumis (ALMS)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $23.5 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Alumis (ALMS)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $23.5Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, and Personalized Diagnostics. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.97 | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -451 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5364% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 348x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 719% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -90% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 582% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4478%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4487% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 720% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% Key risksALMS key risks include [1] the potential failure or adverse impact of its proposed merger with ACELYRIN, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, and Personalized Diagnostics. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.97 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -451 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5364% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 348x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 719% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -90% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 582% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4478%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4487% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 720% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% |
| Key risksALMS key risks include [1] the potential failure or adverse impact of its proposed merger with ACELYRIN, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alumis (ALMS) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Revenue Decline in Fiscal Q1 2026.
Alumis reported a substantial decrease in revenue for its fiscal first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with collaboration revenue plummeting to $1.7 million from $17.4 million in fiscal Q1 2025. This nearly 90% year-over-year reduction in revenue, primarily due to changes in collaboration and licensing agreements, likely signaled concerns about the company's short-term financial trajectory and contributed to the stock's decline.
2. Market Skepticism Regarding Profitability Timeline Post-Earnings.
Despite Alumis beating analyst expectations for EPS with a net loss of $0.74 per share against an estimated $0.78 for fiscal Q1 2026, the stock experienced a notable negative reaction, declining 7.15% on May 14, 2026, the day the earnings were announced. This market response, along with observations that investors are pricing in a longer timeline to profitability, suggests that the market remains cautious given the company's projected unprofitability for at least the next three years.
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Alumis (ALMS) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Revenue Decline in Fiscal Q1 2026.
Alumis reported a substantial decrease in revenue for its fiscal first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with collaboration revenue plummeting to $1.7 million from $17.4 million in fiscal Q1 2025. This nearly 90% year-over-year reduction in revenue, primarily due to changes in collaboration and licensing agreements, likely signaled concerns about the company's short-term financial trajectory and contributed to the stock's decline.
2. Market Skepticism Regarding Profitability Timeline Post-Earnings.
Despite Alumis beating analyst expectations for EPS with a net loss of $0.74 per share against an estimated $0.78 for fiscal Q1 2026, the stock experienced a notable negative reaction, declining 7.15% on May 14, 2026, the day the earnings were announced. This market response, along with observations that investors are pricing in a longer timeline to profitability, suggests that the market remains cautious given the company's projected unprofitability for at least the next three years.
3. High Cash Burn Rate and Funding Concerns for Pipeline Development.
While Alumis held $569.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of March 31, 2026, with an anticipated cash runway into fiscal Q4 2027, the substantial net loss of $93.1 million in fiscal Q1 2026 raised questions about the company's cash burn rate. The market appears to be scrutinizing the funding requirements for Alumis' extensive pipeline of experimental TYK2 inhibitors, especially as the company explores strategic alternatives for its lonigutamab program and trades at a significant premium to its book value.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.8% change in ALMS stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.69 | 23.50 | -20.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 22 | 8 | -62.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 139.7 | 349.8 | 150.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 125 | -16.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALMS | -21.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.4% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 206.4% change in ALMS stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 868.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.67 | 23.50 | 206.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 22 | 8 | -62.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 36.1 | 349.8 | 868.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 125 | -16.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 206.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALMS | 205.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 14.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.4% | 22.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 571.4% change in ALMS stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 3101.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.50 | 23.50 | 571.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17 | 8 | -51.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.9 | 349.8 | 3101.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 125 | -56.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 571.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALMS | 568.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.6% | 20.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALMS | ||
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 12.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.9% | 15.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALMS Return | - | - | - | -41% | 24% | 136% | 73% |
| Peers Return | 43% | -20% | 3% | 78% | -33% | -14% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALMS Win Rate | - | - | - | 29% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 50% | 46% | 58% | 75% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALMS Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -72% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -46% | -34% | -26% | -59% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRTX, ATYR, AVLN, CNXU, COAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALMS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Alumis's stock fell -38.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ALMS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Alumis's stock fell -38.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alumis (ALMS)
Alumis (ALMS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on transforming the treatment of immune-mediated diseases by developing targeted therapies to replace broad immunosuppression. The company utilizes a proprietary precision data analytics platform and deep biological insights to identify optimal drug targets, molecules, and indications, aiming to significantly improve patient outcomes.
The company's main product candidates are two Tyrosine Kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitors. ESK-001, a second-generation TYK2 inhibitor, has demonstrated significant therapeutic effect in Phase 2 trials for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO), with Phase 3 trials anticipated to begin in the second half of 2024. ESK-001 is also in a Phase 2 clinical trial for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Their second candidate, A-005, is a central nervous system (CNS)-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor currently in Phase 1 development for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases.
Alumis primarily serves patients living with a range of immune-mediated diseases, including moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative conditions. These patients represent a market with significant unmet needs, as they often cycle through existing therapies seeking solutions that alleviate debilitating disease impacts without severe side effects. Alumis aims to address these needs by pioneering precise, next-generation treatments.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Alumis (ALMS):
A Bristol Myers Squibb focused on developing next-generation TYK2 inhibitors for autoimmune diseases.
A Vertex Pharmaceuticals for immunology, pioneering a precision approach to develop targeted therapies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ESK-001: A second-generation TYK2 inhibitor in Phase 3 development for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) and Phase 2 for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
- A-005: A CNS-penetrant, allosteric TYK2 inhibitor in Phase 1 development for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases.
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Major Customers of Alumis (ALMS)
Alumis (ALMS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies for immune-mediated diseases. As of the provided description, the company is conducting clinical trials (Phase 1, Phase 2, and preparing for Phase 3) for its drug candidates ESK-001 and A-005.
Given its current stage of development, Alumis is not yet commercializing or selling any products. Therefore, it does not have major customers in the traditional sense of companies or individuals purchasing its products or services.
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Martin Babler, President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Prior to Alumis, Martin Babler served as President and CEO of Principia Biopharma, until its acquisition by Sanofi in October 2020. Before Principia Biopharma, he was President and CEO of Talima Therapeutics from 2007 to 2011. He also held various positions at Genentech and Eli Lilly and Company.
John Schroer, Chief Financial Officer
John Schroer joined Alumis in May 2022. Previously, he served as CFO for ArsenalBio Inc. Before that, he was CFO of Translate Bio, which was acquired by Sanofi. Earlier in his career, he held Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst roles with Allianz Global Investors and founded Schroer Capital.
Roy Hardiman, Chief Business and Strategy Officer
Roy Hardiman joined Alumis in September 2021. Prior to Alumis, he was Chief Business Officer of Principia Biopharma, where he negotiated key collaborations with Sanofi and AbbVie. He also spent nearly two decades at Genentech.
Sanam Pangali, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Sanam Pangali joined Alumis in September 2024 as Senior Vice President, Legal, and was promoted to her current role in July 2025. Prior to Alumis, she held leadership roles at ACELYRIN, Inc., including Chief Legal Officer and Head of People, and was Senior Director & Associate General Counsel at Principia Biopharma Inc.
Mark Bradley, Chief Development Officer
Mark Bradley joined Alumis in March 2021. Before joining Alumis, he was Senior Vice President and South San Francisco Site Head at MyoKardia following its acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS). He also served as SVP and Project Team Leader for CAMZYOS® prior to the acquisition and held various roles at Biomarin and Genentech.
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Key Business Risks for Alumis (ALMS)
- Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval Risk: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Alumis's success hinges significantly on the successful completion of its ongoing and planned clinical trials, particularly the upcoming Phase 3 clinical trials for ESK-001 in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) in the second half of 2024. Despite favorable Phase 2 results, Phase 3 trials are expensive, lengthy, and carry substantial risk of failure due to unforeseen efficacy issues, adverse safety events, or other factors in a larger patient population. Additionally, even if clinical trials are successful, there is no guarantee that regulatory bodies will approve the product candidates. The earlier-stage program for A-005, currently in Phase 1, also faces a high risk of failure inherent in early drug development.
- Competition: Alumis operates in a highly competitive landscape for immune-mediated diseases, with numerous established and emerging therapies. The company aims to provide alternatives to currently available treatments for conditions like psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative diseases. There is a risk that other companies may develop or market superior TYK2 inhibitors or other treatment modalities that are more effective, safer, or more cost-effective, thereby limiting Alumis's market potential and adoption if its drug candidates are approved.
- Limited Clinical-Stage Pipeline and Dependence on TYK2 Inhibitors: Alumis's current clinical-stage pipeline is primarily focused on two Tyrosine Kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitors, ESK-001 and A-005. While the company mentions additional preclinical programs, its near-to-mid-term prospects are largely dependent on the success of these two TYK2-targeted molecules. If the TYK2 mechanism of action proves to be less effective than anticipated across various indications, or if both lead candidates encounter significant development or commercialization setbacks, the company's business and financial condition would be materially and adversely affected due to the lack of diverse late-stage assets.
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- ESK-001 for Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis (PsO): The global plaque psoriasis market was estimated at USD 21.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 39.11 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the global psoriasis treatment market at USD 29.15 billion in 2025, with projections to grow to USD 72.99 billion by 2034. The plaque psoriasis segment constituted the largest share of this market, accounting for 41.31% in 2026. Furthermore, the psoriasis market across the top 7 markets (U.S., EU4, UK, and Japan) reached a value of US$19.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$35.8 billion by 2034.
- ESK-001 for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE): The global systemic lupus erythematosus market size was valued at USD 2.60 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4.26 billion by 2030. Other estimates show the global SLE drugs market size at USD 2.8 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 4.7 billion by 2033. In 2023, the systemic lupus erythematosus market in the seven major markets (7MM) was approximately USD 3.2 billion, with the United States accounting for around USD 2.6 billion of this.
- A-005 for Neuroinflammatory and Neurodegenerative Diseases (including Multiple Sclerosis): The global neurodegenerative disease market is projected to grow from USD 55.21 billion in 2024 to USD 98.54 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global neurodegenerative disease market size was valued at USD 59.06 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 109.73 billion by 2034. The global neurodegenerative diseases drugs market size was valued at USD 58.22 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 93.09 billion by the end of 2034.
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The following are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Alumis (ALMS) over the next 2-3 years:
- Commercialization of ESK-001 for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO): Alumis intends to initiate multiple Phase 3 clinical trials for ESK-001 in PsO in the second half of 2024, following favorable results in its Phase 2 program. Successful completion of these trials and subsequent regulatory approval would position ESK-001 for launch, representing a significant new product revenue stream.
- Advancement of ESK-001 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE): ESK-001 is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial for SLE, with results expected in 2026. Positive outcomes from this trial would validate ESK-001's potential in an additional large market, paving the way for further development and potential commercialization beyond psoriasis, thereby expanding the drug's revenue base.
- Progression of A-005 in neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases: Alumis initiated a Phase 1 program for A-005, a central nervous system (CNS) penetrant TYK2 inhibitor, in April 2024, with initial results anticipated by the end of 2024. Successful advancement of A-005 through early clinical stages would de-risk the program, enhance its value, and could lead to future revenue through partnerships, milestone payments, or eventual product launches in new therapeutic areas.
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Share Issuance
- Alumis raised $250 million through its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in June 2024, by offering 13,125,000 shares at $16.00 per share.
- A concurrent private placement with AyurMaya Capital Management Fund in June 2024 contributed an additional 2.5 million shares, bringing the total gross proceeds from the IPO and private placement to $260 million.
- In January 2026, Alumis completed an upsized underwritten public offering of 20,297,500 shares, including the full exercise of the underwriters' option, at $17.00 per share, generating approximately $345.1 million in gross proceeds.
Inbound Investments
- Alumis secured a $70 million Series A funding round in 2021.
- The company followed with a $200 million Series B funding round in 2022.
- In March 2024, Alumis closed a significant $259 million Series C financing round, co-led by Foresite Capital, Samsara BioCapital, and venBio Partners, with new investor Lilly Asia Ventures joining.
Capital Expenditures
- Alumis reported capital expenditures of -$4.5 million in 2022, -$1.73 million in 2023, and -$1.8 million in 2024.
- As of a recent period, the company's capital expenditures were -$1.02 million in the last 12 months.
- Management expects existing cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities to cover capital expenditure requirements until at least 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| ALMS Stock Surges 166% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Analyst Upgrades To $50 | 01/14/2026 | |
| Alumis Stock Pre-Market (+17%) : Anticipation of Phase 3 Psoriasis Data | 01/06/2026 | |
| Can Alumis Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.9 |
| Rev LTM | 8 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | -4 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 853 |
| CFO LTM | -4 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,066 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -20.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -41.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -31.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 593.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 364.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2,662.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1,738.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -2,221.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2,228.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of researching and developing medicines for autoimmune disorders | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Business of researching and developing medicines for autoimmune disorders | -454 | -301 |
| Total | -454 | -301 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Business of researching and developing medicines for autoimmune disorders | -243 | -294 |
| Total | -243 | -294 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business of researching and developing medicines for autoimmune disorders | 341 | 90 | 108 |
| Total | 341 | 90 | 108 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/28/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $22.98 | $16.59 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.9% | 41.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 78.0% | 122.5% |
| Downside Capture | 344.38 | 71.12 |
| Upside Capture | 161.52 | 299.41 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.3% | 15.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.65 | 1.87 | 1.97 | 1.88 | 1.53 | 0.27 |
| Up Beta | -1.21 | 0.19 | 1.32 | 0.19 | 1.87 | 0.14 |
| Down Beta | 0.34 | -0.10 | -0.71 | -0.89 | -0.44 | 0.11 |
| Up Capture | 156% | 164% | 194% | 872% | 750% | 81% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 31 | 63 | 126 | 232 |
| Down Capture | 817% | 616% | 349% | 183% | 99% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 17 | 31 | 60 | 118 | 241 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALMS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALMS | 677.0% | 122.4% | 2.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 14.0% | 15.0% | 0.66 | 20.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 14.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 8.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 2.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALMS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALMS | 11.8% | 116.6% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.4% | 14.7% | 0.19 | 15.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 12.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | -1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 12.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 6.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALMS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALMS | 5.7% | 116.6% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.4% | 16.6% | 0.46 | 15.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 12.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | -1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 12.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 6.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -7.1% | -10.0% | -6.6% |
| 3/19/2026 | -1.3% | 3.7% | -2.6% |
| 11/13/2025 | 4.5% | 31.1% | 115.9% |
| 8/13/2025 | -0.7% | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| 5/14/2025 | 18.6% | 6.0% | -30.4% |
| 3/19/2025 | -18.3% | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| 11/13/2024 | -13.0% | -10.8% | -22.4% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.4% | 3.7% | -10.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| # Negative | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 6.0% | 65.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -10.0% | -8.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 31.1% | 115.9% |
| Max Negative | -18.3% | -10.8% | -30.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -7.1% | -10.0% | -6.6% |
| 3/19/2026 | -1.3% | 3.7% | -2.6% |
| 11/13/2025 | 4.5% | 31.1% | 115.9% |
| 8/13/2025 | -0.7% | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| 5/14/2025 | 18.6% | 6.0% | -30.4% |
| 3/19/2025 | -18.3% | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| 11/13/2024 | -13.0% | -10.8% | -22.4% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.4% | 3.7% | -10.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| # Negative | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 6.0% | 65.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -10.0% | -8.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 31.1% | 115.9% |
| Max Negative | -18.3% | -10.8% | -30.4% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | Affirmed | Guidance: 2,028 for 2027 | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,028 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 1132026 | 17.00 | 588,235 | 9,999,995 | 31,509,296 | Form | |
| 2 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 1122026 | 17.00 | 411,764 | 6,999,988 | 96,943,112 | Form | |
| 3 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 1122026 | 17.00 | 411,764 | 6,999,988 | 96,943,112 | Form | |
| 4 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 1122026 | 17.00 | 411,764 | 6,999,988 | 96,943,112 | Form | |
| 5 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12092025 | 9.84 | 186,377 | 1,833,760 | 12,448,803 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 1132026 | 17.00 | 588,235 | 9,999,995 | 31,509,296 | Form | |
| 2 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 1122026 | 17.00 | 411,764 | 6,999,988 | 96,943,112 | Form | |
| 3 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 1122026 | 17.00 | 411,764 | 6,999,988 | 96,943,112 | Form | |
| 4 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 1122026 | 17.00 | 411,764 | 6,999,988 | 96,943,112 | Form | |
| 5 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12092025 | 9.84 | 186,377 | 1,833,760 | 12,448,803 | Form | |
| 6 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12042025 | 8.18 | 66,027 | 540,101 | 8,825,206 | Form | |
| 7 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12042025 | 7.75 | 100,000 | 775,000 | 7,849,580 | Form | |
| 8 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12042025 | 7.55 | 96,000 | 724,800 | 6,892,010 | Form | |
| 9 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12012025 | 7.46 | 86,350 | 644,171 | 6,093,694 | Form | |
| 10 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12012025 | 7.64 | 38,702 | 295,683 | 5,581,012 | Form | |
| 11 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 12012025 | 7.64 | 48,537 | 370,823 | 5,285,329 | Form | |
| 12 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11252025 | 7.38 | 72,212 | 532,925 | 19,292,907 | Form | |
| 13 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 11252025 | 7.38 | 72,212 | 532,925 | 19,292,907 | Form | |
| 14 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11252025 | 7.38 | 72,212 | 532,925 | 19,292,907 | Form | |
| 15 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 11242025 | 7.20 | 125,743 | 905,350 | 4,631,472 | Form | |
| 16 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 6.56 | 190,500 | 1,249,680 | 16,675,540 | Form | |
| 17 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 6.56 | 190,500 | 1,249,680 | 16,675,540 | Form | |
| 18 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 6.56 | 190,500 | 1,249,680 | 16,675,540 | Form | |
| 19 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 11192025 | 6.56 | 137,772 | 903,784 | 3,394,912 | Form | |
| 20 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 6.19 | 117,374 | 726,545 | 14,555,804 | Form | |
| 21 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 6.19 | 117,374 | 726,545 | 14,555,804 | Form | |
| 22 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 6.19 | 117,374 | 726,545 | 14,555,804 | Form | |
| 23 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 11192025 | 6.05 | 102,652 | 621,045 | 2,297,457 | Form | |
| 24 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 5.59 | 200,000 | 1,118,500 | 12,494,366 | Form | |
| 25 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 5.59 | 200,000 | 1,118,500 | 12,494,366 | Form | |
| 26 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 5.59 | 200,000 | 1,118,500 | 12,494,366 | Form | |
| 27 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 11192025 | 5.51 | 914 | 5,036 | 1,526,782 | Form | |
| 28 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara Opportunity Fund, L.P. | Buy | 11172025 | 5.25 | 276,179 | 1,449,940 | 1,449,940 | Form | |
| 29 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 5062025 | 4.34 | 20,000 | 86,800 | 18,434,888 | Form | |
| 30 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 5062025 | 4.34 | 20,000 | 86,800 | 18,434,888 | Form | |
| 31 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 5062025 | 4.34 | 20,000 | 86,800 | 18,434,888 | Form | |
| 32 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara BioCapital, L.P. | Buy | 5062025 | 4.67 | 160,370 | 749,676 | 16,767,031 | Form | |
| 33 | Tananbaum, James B | See Footnote | Buy | 5062025 | 4.62 | 25,000 | 115,500 | 19,531,835 | Form | |
| 34 | Foresite, Labs, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 5062025 | 4.62 | 25,000 | 115,500 | 19,531,835 | Form | |
| 35 | Foresite, Capital Management VI Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 5062025 | 4.62 | 25,000 | 115,500 | 19,531,835 | Form | |
| 36 | Akkaraju, Srinivas | Samsara BioCapital, L.P. | Buy | 5062025 | 4.55 | 159,920 | 727,636 | 15,590,202 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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