Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, and Personalized Diagnostics.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -456 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2061%
1  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 266%
2  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 110%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, and Personalized Diagnostics.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -456 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2061%
2 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 266%
3 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 110%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALMS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

It is important to note that providing an exact breakdown of a 148% stock movement for Alumis (ALMS) between August 31, 2025, and December 14, 2025, with precise causation for each percentage point, is not feasible. Stock prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, and the specific impact of each event is difficult to quantify precisely. However, based on available information for the specified period, several key events and analyst sentiments likely contributed to significant stock movement.

1. Analyst Upgrades and Positive Price Targets. Alumis (ALMS) experienced several analyst upgrades and reiterated "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings throughout the period, with price targets significantly higher than its trading price. For example, on December 6, 2025, Alumis hit a new 12-month high following an analyst upgrade. On August 14, 2025, HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $14.00 target price, and on August 15, 2025, Morgan Stanley maintained an "overweight" rating with a $22.00 price target. These positive analyst sentiments and high price targets likely fueled investor confidence and contributed to the stock's upward trajectory. The average analyst price target for Alumis was $19.20, representing a forecasted upside of 67.10% from a price of $11.49.

2. Completion of Key Clinical Trial Enrollment and Upcoming Data Readouts. Alumis announced the completion of patient enrollment in significant clinical trials for its lead candidate, envudeucitinib (formerly ESK-001). Specifically, the company completed enrollment in the Phase 3 ONWARD clinical trials for envudeucitinib in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and the Phase 2b LUMUS clinical trial for envudeucitinib in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). These milestones, announced around August 13, 2025, highlighted progress in its late-stage immunology pipeline. The anticipation of topline data readouts—expected in early Q1 2026 for ONWARD and Q3 2026 for LUMUS—created optimism about future revenue streams and potential market approvals.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALMS Return48%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALMS Win Rate33%50% 
Peers Win Rate37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALMS Max Drawdown-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

ALMS has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Alumis (ALMS)

Better Bets than Alumis (ALMS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALMS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alumis

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALMSVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlumis Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price11.49452.682.530.9212.5518.0012.02
Mkt Cap0.4115.7--0.5-0.5
Rev LTM2211,7230-01313
Op Inc LTM-456-92-7--124-73-92
FCF LTM-3,337-7--87-78-43
FCF 3Y Avg-2,064-8---1,028
CFO LTM-3,718-7--87-78-43
CFO 3Y Avg-2,419-8---1,205

Growth & Margins

ALMSVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlumis Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.3%2.7%---333.3%10.3%
Op Mgn LTM-2,061.3%-0.8%----560.1%-560.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM128.1%1.0%---1,973.2%128.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----602.0%-285.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----602.0%-286.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

ALMSVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlumis Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.4115.7--0.5-0.5
P/S18.88.6----13.7
P/EBIT-22.5----22.5
P/E-1.727.3---4.4--1.7
P/CFO-27.0---5.8-10.6
Total Yield-59.0%3.7%---22.8%--22.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%--0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.3%----2.3%
D/E-0.0----0.0
Net D/E--0.0-----0.0

Returns

ALMSVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlumis Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn117.6%4.2%-29.4%1.4%-1.2%4.2%
3M Rtn162.9%14.7%--20.8%-20.8%
6M Rtn265.9%-0.6%----132.7%
12M Rtn36.9%-2.4%----17.3%
3Y Rtn-45.0%----45.0%
1M Excs Rtn119.6%4.6%-12.8%-0.3%-7.4%4.6%
3M Excs Rtn159.1%11.9%--25.8%-25.8%
6M Excs Rtn251.7%-14.9%----118.4%
12M Excs Rtn23.8%-16.7%----3.6%
3Y Excs Rtn--31.1%-----31.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,533,932
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.1%
Average Daily Volume1,323,306
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.67
Basic Shares Quantity104,109,243
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/13/20254.5%31.1% 
8/13/2025-0.7%-0.2%-1.1%
5/14/202518.6%6.0%-30.4%
2/6/2025-14.0%-22.6%-26.4%
11/13/2024-13.0%-10.8%-22.4%
8/13/20241.4%3.7%-10.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive330
# Negative336
Median Positive4.5%6.0% 
Median Negative-13.0%-10.8%-22.4%
Max Positive18.6%31.1% 
Max Negative-14.0%-22.6%-30.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024319202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
123120236282024424B4 12/31/2023