Tearsheet

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $1.63 | Market Cap: $431.6 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $1.63
Market Cap: $431.6 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.18, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  Key risks
AKBA key risks include [1] the severely constrained market for its key drug Vafseo, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Renal Disease Therapeutics, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Renal Disease Therapeutics, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.18, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7%
5 Key risks
AKBA key risks include [1] the severely constrained market for its key drug Vafseo, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AKBA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Akebia Therapeutics (symbol: AKBA) experienced a significant decline in its stock price, moving by approximately -48.7% from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025. This downturn was primarily driven by a combination of disappointing financial results, strategic clinical trial setbacks, and broader concerns over the company's financial health and future prospects.

1. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss: On August 7, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) missing forecasts. Despite exceeding revenue expectations, the stock fell by 18.49% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over the earnings miss and the company's future outlook.

2. Abandonment of VALOR Trial: In late October 2025, Akebia announced its decision to discontinue plans for the VALOR trial. This trial was intended to expand the label for Vafseo (vadadustat) to include non-dialysis dependent chronic kidney disease patients. The company cited feedback from the FDA and high associated costs as reasons for the decision, which subsequently led to a decline in Akebia's shares.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AKBA Return-56%-19%-74%115%53%-15%-74%
Peers Return14%-27%38%4%5%28%61%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AKBA Win Rate50%42%33%58%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate55%40%53%48%52%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AKBA Max Drawdown-65%-19%-89%-12%-31%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-50%-28%-39%-29%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FGEN, ARDX, AMGN, TVTX, VRTX. See AKBA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAKBAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1924.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven511.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-83.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven522.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to EXEL, LIVN, LHI, LLY, JNJ


In The Past

Akebia Therapeutics's stock fell -95.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -95.1% loss requires a 1924.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)

Better Bets than Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AKBA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Akebia Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AKBAFGENARDXAMGNTVTXVRTXMedian
NameAkebia T.FibroGen Ardelyx Amgen Travere .Vertex P. 
Mkt Price1.618.655.79326.0333.88449.5221.27
Mkt Cap0.70.01.4175.43.0114.92.2
Rev LTM225839835,97143611,723417
Op Inc LTM18-38-388,671-90-92-38
FCF LTM32-17-5511,539-1073,3378
FCF 3Y Avg-27-165-629,067-2602,064-45
CFO LTM32-17-5413,126-593,7188
CFO 3Y Avg-27-164-6110,322-1982,419-44

Growth & Margins

AKBAFGENARDXAMGNTVTXVRTXMedian
NameAkebia T.FibroGen Ardelyx Amgen Travere .Vertex P. 
Rev Chg LTM32.5%117.5%58.1%10.6%114.2%10.3%45.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.7%4.4%512.0%11.2%70.5%10.5%10.8%
Rev Chg Q57.0%774.8%12.3%12.4%162.1%11.0%34.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.5%13.0%3.1%3.0%30.5%2.7%6.8%
Op Mgn LTM7.9%-458.6%-9.5%24.1%-20.6%-0.8%-5.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.0%--17.4%25.4%-161.3%26.2%-13.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.5%383.1%0.9%0.6%30.5%1.0%4.2%
CFO/Rev LTM14.4%-203.8%-13.5%36.5%-13.4%31.7%0.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-15.8%--29.4%32.7%-117.1%23.1%-15.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.3%-206.0%-13.9%32.1%-24.7%28.5%0.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-15.8%--29.7%28.8%-147.1%19.8%-15.8%

Valuation

AKBAFGENARDXAMGNTVTXVRTXMedian
NameAkebia T.FibroGen Ardelyx Amgen Travere .Vertex P. 
Mkt Cap0.70.01.4175.43.0114.92.2
P/S3.24.23.34.24.98.54.2
P/EBIT--0.8-46.213.7-27.622.4-0.8
P/E-45.60.2-23.621.7-24.127.2-11.7
P/CFO22.4-2.1-24.911.6-36.426.94.7
Total Yield-2.2%615.8%-4.2%7.9%-4.2%3.7%0.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%3.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--6,089.8%-5.2%5.9%-27.9%2.3%-5.2%
D/E-0.00.20.40.20.00.2
Net D/E--3.4-0.00.30.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

AKBAFGENARDXAMGNTVTXVRTXMedian
NameAkebia T.FibroGen Ardelyx Amgen Travere .Vertex P. 
1M Rtn-8.2%-0.6%-2.0%-4.6%-4.4%3.6%-3.2%
3M Rtn-42.3%-22.4%-6.5%19.5%43.3%16.1%4.8%
6M Rtn-54.6%67.6%60.4%14.3%135.1%0.2%37.3%
12M Rtn-13.6%-0.6%24.2%26.6%97.7%-4.2%11.8%
3Y Rtn265.5%-97.6%195.4%34.2%72.1%47.5%59.8%
1M Excs Rtn-9.0%-1.3%-2.8%-5.3%-5.1%2.8%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn-46.8%-25.3%-11.2%17.7%38.7%14.8%1.8%
6M Excs Rtn-67.1%55.3%48.0%1.9%122.7%-12.1%25.0%
12M Excs Rtn-23.8%-7.1%-0.2%13.3%84.5%-14.1%-3.6%
3Y Excs Rtn264.3%-165.9%119.6%-38.8%10.8%-25.4%-7.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics195    
License, collaboration and other revenue 11671166224
Product revenue, net 177142129111
Total195292214295335


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics-46    
Total-46    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics-52    
Total-52    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity35,918,701
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.6%
Average Daily Volume3,529,859
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.18
Basic Shares Quantity264,786,432
Short % of Basic Shares13.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-18.1%-18.1%-20.1%
8/7/2025-20.5%-12.8%-21.8%
3/13/2025-12.4%47.2%-19.7%
11/7/2024-6.8%-4.0%2.5%
8/8/20247.2%21.6%21.6%
3/14/202424.1%48.9%1.5%
11/8/2023-11.9%-5.5%7.3%
8/25/2023-8.0%11.2%-9.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive488
# Negative151111
Median Positive14.8%14.4%11.4%
Median Negative-8.0%-12.8%-21.8%
Max Positive24.1%48.9%26.6%
Max Negative-22.3%-37.5%-75.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023828202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Malabre Richard CSVP, Chief Accounting Officer6052025Sell3.5313,33447,069942,206Form
1Butler John P.CEO and President3042025Sell1.8346,40984,9284,680,995Form
2Burke Steven KeithSVP, Chief Medical Officer3042025Sell1.837,14413,0741,480,635Form