Tearsheet

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.54 | Market Cap: $404.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.54
Market Cap: $404.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Renal Disease Therapeutics, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.4%
1   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
2   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Renal Disease Therapeutics, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.4%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AKBA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) experienced an approximate 50% decline in its stock price between late August 2025 and early December 2025, primarily due to significant regulatory and commercial challenges impacting its lead product, Vafseo.

1. FDA Setback on Vafseo Label Expansion: Akebia Therapeutics announced on October 28, 2025, that it would not pursue a broader U.S. label for its anemia drug, Vafseo, to treat chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients who are not on dialysis. This decision followed discussions with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) where the company could not reach an agreement on a feasible trial design.

2. High Cost and Time for Proposed Vafseo Trial: The FDA's feedback indicated that a trial for Vafseo in non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients would require a "significantly larger number of patients" than Akebia had proposed. This would make the trial too costly and time-consuming for the company to undertake, leading to the decision to abandon the pursuit of the broader label. Earlier in 2025, the expansion into the non-dialysis population was seen as a "potential multiple billion-dollar market opportunity."

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AKBA Return-56%-19%-74%115%53%-23%-77%
Peers Return11%25%-2%24%14%38%164%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AKBA Win Rate50%42%33%58%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate50%56%56%52%52%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AKBA Max Drawdown-65%-19%-89%-12%-31%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-8%-22%-14%-10%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EXEL, LIVN, LHI, LLY, JNJ. See AKBA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAKBAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1924.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven511.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-83.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven522.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to EXEL, LIVN, LHI, LLY, JNJ


In The Past

Akebia Therapeutics's stock fell -95.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -95.1% loss requires a 1924.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)

Better Bets than Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AKBA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Akebia Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AKBAEXELLIVNLHILLYJNJMedian
NameAkebia T.Exelixis LivaNova Living H.Eli LillyJohnson . 
Mkt Price1.5744.0163.29-1,033.56205.3363.29
Mkt Cap0.411.83.5-928.0494.511.8
Rev LTM2042,2881,349-53,25892,1492,288
Op Inc LTM1820194-22,88224,146820
FCF LTM-3744191--5018,679191
FCF 3Y Avg-25428103--15617,814103
CFO LTM-2791251-10,93824,204791
CFO 3Y Avg-25553150-7,23023,209553

Growth & Margins

AKBAEXELLIVNLHILLYJNJMedian
NameAkebia T.Exelixis LivaNova Living H.Eli LillyJohnson . 
Rev Chg LTM16.8%9.9%8.6%-36.8%5.1%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.4%11.8%9.9%-23.4%6.1%9.9%
Rev Chg Q43.1%10.8%12.5%-37.6%6.8%12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.2%2.6%3.0%-8.7%1.7%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM0.4%35.8%14.4%-43.0%26.2%26.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.3%22.5%8.3%-35.6%26.4%22.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM12.3%2.1%1.0%-1.8%1.7%1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.2%34.6%18.6%-20.5%26.3%20.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-13.6%26.5%11.6%-17.8%26.4%17.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.3%32.5%14.2%--0.1%20.3%14.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.6%19.8%7.9%-0.5%20.3%7.9%

Valuation

AKBAEXELLIVNLHILLYJNJMedian
NameAkebia T.Exelixis LivaNova Living H.Eli LillyJohnson . 
Mkt Cap0.411.83.5-928.0494.511.8
P/S4.74.82.1-12.94.84.8
P/EBIT-114.613.5-20.8-38.613.813.5
P/E-26.216.4-13.2-49.617.816.4
P/CFO-397.714.011.4-62.618.414.0
Total Yield-3.8%6.1%-7.6%-2.7%8.4%2.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.7%2.7%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-12.9%4.7%3.6%-0.1%4.4%3.6%
D/E0.10.00.2-0.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.1

Returns

AKBAEXELLIVNLHILLYJNJMedian
NameAkebia T.Exelixis LivaNova Living H.Eli LillyJohnson . 
1M Rtn-25.9%15.6%20.4%-15.5%10.9%15.5%
3M Rtn-49.7%19.1%11.8%-40.3%16.1%16.1%
6M Rtn-56.9%4.2%42.3%-35.5%35.9%35.5%
12M Rtn-23.0%24.8%22.6%-28.0%38.9%24.8%
3Y Rtn441.2%153.1%13.6%-182.4%25.7%153.1%
1M Excs Rtn-25.9%15.7%20.4%-15.5%11.0%15.5%
3M Excs Rtn-53.4%12.4%3.5%-34.0%10.2%10.2%
6M Excs Rtn-71.6%-10.5%27.6%-20.7%21.1%20.7%
12M Excs Rtn-37.3%7.2%7.0%-17.4%23.0%7.2%
3Y Excs Rtn452.9%89.3%-52.0%-116.6%-46.0%89.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics195    
License, collaboration and other revenue 11671166224
Product revenue, net 177140128111
Total195292212295335


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics-46    
Total-46    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics-52    
Total-52    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity35,344,201
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.5%
Average Daily Volume6,462,599
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.47
Basic Shares Quantity262,565,500
Short % of Basic Shares13.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023828202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Malabre Richard CSVP, Chief Accounting Officer6052025Sell3.5313,33447,069942,206Form
1Butler John P.CEO and President3042025Sell1.8346,40984,9284,680,995Form
2Burke Steven KeithSVP, Chief Medical Officer3042025Sell1.837,14413,0741,480,635Form