C3.ai (AI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.73 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
C3.ai (AI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.73Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -377 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -101% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -377 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -101% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period (8/31/2025 to December 4, 2025) is in the future. Therefore, providing an explanation for a past -11.2% stock movement within this future period is not possible. However, there are past events that caused significant drops in C3.ai's stock price that can serve as examples of factors influencing its movement.
Here are potential reasons that could lead to significant stock price movements for C3.ai, drawing from past events where its stock experienced notable declines:
1. Disappointing Financial Results and Outlook: C3.ai's stock has previously experienced sharp declines, such as a 28.78% plunge, following the announcement of fiscal quarter results that revealed substantial shortfalls in revenue and increased losses, leading to a decrease in investor confidence. Weak preliminary sales figures, coupled with management's acknowledgment of unacceptable performance and a significant reduction in future revenue guidance, have also led to substantial drops.
2. Leadership Changes and Health Reasons of CEO: News regarding changes in leadership, such as the CEO stepping down due to health reasons, has impacted C3.ai's stock, causing declines. This can create uncertainty about the company's future direction.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AI Return | - | -77% | -64% | 157% | 20% | -58% | -90% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -8% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AI Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 40% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AI Max Drawdown | - | -79% | -67% | -3% | -29% | -63% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1546.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
C3.ai's stock fell -93.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -93.9% loss requires a 1546.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for C3.ai
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | -187 |
| FCF LTM | 163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 188 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -19.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | -14.3 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -38.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6232025 | 10-K 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3072025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6182024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2292024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6222023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3032023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6232022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3032022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
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