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C3.ai (AI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.73 | Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

C3.ai (AI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.73
Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -377 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -101%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -377 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -101%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period (8/31/2025 to December 4, 2025) is in the future. Therefore, providing an explanation for a past -11.2% stock movement within this future period is not possible. However, there are past events that caused significant drops in C3.ai's stock price that can serve as examples of factors influencing its movement. Here are potential reasons that could lead to significant stock price movements for C3.ai, drawing from past events where its stock experienced notable declines:

1. Disappointing Financial Results and Outlook: C3.ai's stock has previously experienced sharp declines, such as a 28.78% plunge, following the announcement of fiscal quarter results that revealed substantial shortfalls in revenue and increased losses, leading to a decrease in investor confidence. Weak preliminary sales figures, coupled with management's acknowledgment of unacceptable performance and a significant reduction in future revenue guidance, have also led to substantial drops.

2. Leadership Changes and Health Reasons of CEO: News regarding changes in leadership, such as the CEO stepping down due to health reasons, has impacted C3.ai's stock, causing declines. This can create uncertainty about the company's future direction.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AI Return--77%-64%157%20%-58%-90%
Peers Return13%13%-38%33%-9%-8%-11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AI Win Rate 33%33%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate23%40%30%45%45%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AI Max Drawdown--79%-67%-3%-29%-63% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-1%-42%-20%-26%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1546.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

C3.ai's stock fell -93.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -93.9% loss requires a 1546.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About C3.ai (AI)

Better Bets than C3.ai (AI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for C3.ai

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AIGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameC3.ai Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Price15.0127.1914.8616.96-9.8015.01
Mkt Cap2.016.78.05.6--6.8
Rev LTM3724,4731,497907--1,202
Op Inc LTM-3771,697-46-328---187
FCF LTM-861,30031017--163
FCF 3Y Avg-1011,463268-44--112
CFO LTM-831,32433541--188
CFO 3Y Avg-721,480282-22--130

Growth & Margins

AIGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameC3.ai Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Rev Chg LTM14.3%16.2%8.3%25.4%--15.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.1%16.5%14.6%45.6%--15.5%
Rev Chg Q-19.4%25.3%14.4%21.7%--18.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.4%5.8%3.1%5.0%--4.1%
Op Mgn LTM-101.2%37.9%-3.1%-36.2%---19.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-101.7%36.7%-12.6%-53.2%---32.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-17.8%-1.3%5.8%2.1%--0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-22.3%29.6%22.4%4.5%--13.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-22.3%37.1%20.7%-5.5%--7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-23.1%29.1%20.7%1.8%--11.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-32.5%36.7%19.6%-8.7%--5.5%

Valuation

AIGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameC3.ai Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Cap2.016.78.05.6--6.8
P/S8.93.94.66.7--5.6
P/EBIT-8.810.9-148.1-19.8---14.3
P/E-9.730.7340.3-14.1--10.5
P/CFO-40.113.220.5148.8--16.9
Total Yield-10.3%5.0%0.3%-7.1%---3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.7%9.5%3.6%-1.0%--1.3%
D/E0.00.50.00.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.20.5-0.2-0.1---0.2

Returns

AIGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameC3.ai Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
1M Rtn-12.4%3.9%-6.4%-4.1%-11.4%-4.1%
3M Rtn-10.0%-7.9%36.6%-5.9%---6.9%
6M Rtn-42.8%-5.7%13.9%-5.6%---5.7%
12M Rtn-59.2%-10.3%3.3%-38.4%---24.4%
3Y Rtn12.7%21.7%2.3%14.7%--13.7%
1M Excs Rtn-12.4%4.0%-6.3%-4.0%-11.4%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn-8.3%-12.8%31.6%-11.9%---10.1%
6M Excs Rtn-57.6%-20.4%-0.9%-20.3%---20.4%
12M Excs Rtn-73.2%-23.9%-9.0%-52.9%---38.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.6%-47.0%-49.8%-67.2%---50.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Subscriptions278230   
Professional services3236462621
Subscription  207157135
Total311267253183157


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity40,541,795
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.8%
Average Daily Volume7,349,227
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.52
Basic Shares Quantity135,375,000
Short % of Basic Shares29.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025909202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025623202510-K 4/30/2025
1312025307202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241210202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024905202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024618202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024229202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231207202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023907202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023622202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023303202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221208202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022901202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022623202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022303202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211202202110-Q 10/31/2021