Airbnb (ABNB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $120.0 | Market Cap: $73.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Airbnb (ABNB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $120.0Market Cap: $73.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ABNB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. **Airbnb's strategic investments in new businesses are anticipated to initially weigh on its EBITDA margins in 2025, as the company allocates $200-$250 million towards launching new travel-related services and expanding beyond accommodations.**
**2. **Analysts have indicated expectations for a moderation in Airbnb's overall growth, with specific challenges noted in scaling the experiences business due to stiff competition.**
**3. **The company has cautioned that currency fluctuations could adversely affect certain earnings metrics during this period.**
**4. **Airbnb is experiencing public backlash and negative sentiment concerning the impact of its short-term rental properties on the national housing crisis, with survey data showing low public favorability and calls for stricter regulations.**
**5. **The departure of Chief Technology Officer Aristotle Balogh in December 2025, without an announced successor, could introduce a degree of leadership uncertainty during a period of planned strategic expansion and AI integration.**
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABNB Return | - | 13% | -49% | 59% | -3% | -8% | -18% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 24% | -35% | 53% | 25% | -1% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABNB Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 60% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABNB Max Drawdown | - | -10% | -50% | -1% | -17% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -10% | -41% | -7% | -22% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, EXPE, HGV, TRIP, TZOO. See ABNB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABNB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 148 days |
Compare to MAR, EXPE, HGV, TRIP, TZOO
In The Past
Airbnb's stock fell -62.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -62.0% loss requires a 162.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ABNB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Airbnb
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 81.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.9 |
| Rev LTM | 8,470 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,264 |
| FCF LTM | 1,093 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,213 |
| CFO LTM | 1,523 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,580 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.9 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 25.5 |
| P/CFO | 11.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 29.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |