How Will Axsome Therapeutics Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AXSM) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $11 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $638 Mil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-169 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-183 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Axsome Therapeutics’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 4.6%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -3.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/12/2026 | 4.4% | 4.7% | 8.8% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 9.5% |
| 8/4/2025 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 19.9% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.8% | -4.0% | -1.9% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.3% | -0.3% | -4.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | 9.4% | 1.6% | 7.4% |
| 8/5/2024 | -1.4% | -1.6% | 6.2% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | -3.4% |
| 2/20/2024 | -12.6% | -11.3% | -17.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | -4.2% | -11.9% | 5.3% |
| 8/7/2023 | 2.0% | 0.8% | 14.7% |
| 5/8/2023 | 5.4% | 7.1% | 1.5% |
| 2/27/2023 | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| 11/7/2022 | -0.5% | 3.4% | 31.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | 10.2% | 2.6% | 39.8% |
| 11/8/2021 | 7.9% | -2.3% | -15.0% |
| 8/9/2021 | -46.5% | -55.3% | -48.1% |
| 5/10/2021 | 4.9% | 8.4% | 16.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 3.0% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.5% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 8.4% | 39.8% |
| Max Negative | -46.5% | -55.3% | -48.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 56.6% | 14.7% | -3.3% |
| 3Y History | -34.8% | -11.3% | -16.8% |
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