Same Intuit, Half the Price. What’s Actually Going On?

Intuit (INTU) keeps growing. In Q2 FY26 (Jan. 2026), the company reported $4.7 billion in revenue, expanding 17% year over year. Yet, the stock had already collapsed, falling from a mid-2025 peak near $786 per share to levels of around $370 currently.

That kind of 50% haircut demands an explanation. So is the market right, or is this an opportunity hiding in plain sight?

The Saasoclypse and The Big Reset

Investors are fleeing INTU over one core fear: AI-led software disruption.

The broader SaaS selloff is built on this logic –  if a cheap AI tool can handle your books, why pay Intuit at all? The most vulnerable customers are the small businesses on basic plans. These are the same customers who historically upgrade, grow with the platform, and become Intuit’s most valuable users over time. Agentic AI sharpens this threat further. If an AI agent can handle bookkeeping end-to-end, the software becomes less relevant.

This threat triggered a severe valuation reset prior to the recent earnings. At its peak, investors were willing to pay 39x forward earnings for Intuit. Today, that multiple has compressed to roughly 16x. (See Intuit valuation multiples)

The Nuance

Management expects only 10% growth in Q3. For a stock previously priced for high growth, that feels like a notable slowdown. The headline numbers also mask a notable drag from Mailchimp.

Global Business Solutions revenue grew 18% to $3.2 billion. The Online Ecosystem grew 21% to $2.5 billion. Strip out the 2021 Mailchimp acquisition, and the core tells a different story. Excluding it, Global Business Solutions grew 21%. The core Online Ecosystem surged 25%.

This means that the legacy business is still humming.

Separately, while generative AI is disrupting most software companies, Palantir stands to gain. See how Palantir is positioned in the agentic AI shift.

The Profitability Engine

Underneath the stock movement, Intuit’s fundamentals remain highly profitable.

Intuit generated $6.8 billion in free cash flow over the last twelve months. Operating margins expanded from 20.1% in 2022 to 27.1% in 2025.

The core is also incredibly sticky. QuickBooks Online revenue grew 24% in Q2, driven by a mix of new customers and mix shifts. QBO is the central hub for small business operations and creates high switching costs.

Intuit would not be hitting 24% growth in accounting if it were losing its base to free AI tools.

The Counter-Punch

Intuit is not just watching the AI disruption happen. Management is forcing AI into the workflow to make the software more resilient.

In Q2 FY26, over 3 million customers engaged with Intuit autonomous AI agents in a single quarter. The repeat engagement rate exceeded 85%.

The company is also successfully moving up-market to escape low-end churn. Revenue from the high-end tier, QuickBooks Online Advanced, and the new Intuit Enterprise Suite increased by approximately 40% year over year. To keep up with this demand, Intuit expanded its dedicated sales team capacity by nearly 30%.

The Bottom Line

The low-end AI threat is priced in, but the core business remains sticky. Organic retention should remain high, margins are expanding, and the enterprise pivot is working. The next phase for the stock depends on one thing: Can Intuit sustain its core momentum while scaling its high-end enterprise AI?

Is Your Portfolio Positioned For The SaaS Reset?

Intuit’s 50% drop proves that in the AI era, even the best moats can be mispriced. Long-term wealth is built by maintaining exposure to these opportunities while diversifying away the idiosyncratic risks that can permanently impair capital.

That is the exact principle behind the Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ) strategy. By cutting through the hype and focusing on fundamental quality, our HQ strategy has delivered over 105% returns since inception, consistently outperforming its S&P 500 and Russell 2000 benchmarks.