TOL Stock Falls -14% With An 11-day Losing Spree On Insider Selling Fears
Toll Brothers (TOL) – a luxury home builder and developer of residential communities. – hit a 11-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -14%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $2.1 Bil over the last 11 days and currently stands at $13 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 1.3% compared to -1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Insider Selling by CEO
- CEO Douglas C. Jr. Yearley sold 45,116 shares
- Total transaction value of approximately $7.24 million
- Impact: Negative investor sentiment, Increased selling pressure
[2] Broad Homebuilder Sector Weakness
- Reports of a cooling housing market in February
- Median list price fell 2.1% year over year nationally
- Impact: Negative industry outlook, Concerns over rising mortgage rates
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is a near-equal mix of good and bad in TOL stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Considering stock’s Low valuation we think it is Attractive (For details, see Buy or Sell TOL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -14% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for TOL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | TOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.0% | 0.0% |
| 11D (Current Streak) | -13.8% | -1.9% |
| 1M (21D) | -15.3% | -2.4% |
| 3M (63D) | -1.2% | -1.6% |
| YTD 2026 | 1.3% | -1.0% |
| 2025 | 8.3% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 23.4% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 108.6% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: TOL Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 21.0 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 121 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 21 | 44 |
| 4D | 0 | 30 |
| 5D | 0 | 16 |
| 6D | 0 | 9 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 22 |
| Total >=3 D | 21 | 121 |
Key Financials for Toll Brothers (TOL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $10.8 Bil | $11.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $2.0 Bil | $1.7 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.6 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ4 | 2026 FQ1 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $3.4 Bil | $2.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $564.1 Mil | $219.1 Mil |
| Net Income | $446.7 Mil | $210.9 Mil |
The losing streak TOL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.