TMC Stock (+14%): Options Frenzy Squeezes High Short Interest

TMC surged +14% on 12/19/2025 with no direct news catalyst. The aggression was notable, but on lighter-than-average volume, primarily driven by a surge in call option activity. This texture suggests a mechanical move rather than a fundamental re-assessment by long-term holders. With the stock up over 475% YTD, is this the next leg up for the deep-sea mining narrative, or a classic, option-fueled liquidity grab before a reversal?

There was no discernible fundamental change on this date. TMC remains a pre-revenue, high-cash-burn entity entirely dependent on the future viability and regulation of deep-sea mining. The move was a continuation of a speculative narrative, not a reaction to new business data.

• The company remains pre-revenue, reporting a net loss of $184.5M in Q3 2025.
• The long-term bull case hinges on a feasibility study valuing its project at $23.6B.
• No new permits or major operational milestones were announced to justify the spike.

Trade Mechanics & Money Flow

Trade Mechanics: What Happened?

The ‘how’ of this move is clear: a technically-driven squeeze. Trading volume was relatively thin, indicating a lack of broad institutional participation. The aggression originated in the derivatives market, forcing shorts to cover.

• A ‘bullish options frenzy’ was reported, with surging call volume and rising implied volatility.
• Short interest is high, with over 30M shares (~11% of the float) sold short.
• Trading volume of ~2.96M shares was well below the ~9.5M daily average.

How Is The Money Flowing?

The footprint points heavily towards retail and momentum-chasing traders, not quiet institutional accumulation. The ownership structure is dominated by insiders and the public, making it susceptible to headline-driven volatility.

• Retail investors hold a significant stake, estimated at ~48% of the company.
• Institutional ownership is low at <12%, with recent filings showing mixed sentiment.
• The price action is characteristic of ‘dumb money’ chasing a narrative, squeezing shorts.

Understanding trade mechanics, money flow, and price behavior can give you and edge. See more.

What Next?

FADE. The move lacks the support of a fundamental catalyst and, more importantly, institutional-grade volume. This was a mechanically-driven squeeze ignited by the options market. Watch the $7.99 level, the high of the day. This now acts as a psychological resistance point. If the price cannot consolidate above this level, it signals the exhaustion of the squeeze. We expect short-term option holders to sell into strength, creating overhead supply and a high probability of a sharp reversal.

That’s for now, but so much more goes into evaluating a stock from long-term investment perspective. We make it easy with our Investment Highlights

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