ADSK Climbed 13% In A Week. How Confident Are You In The Stock?
Autodesk (ADSK) stock is up 13.1% in 5 trading days. Already own the stock or planning to buy? You might want to re-consider based on the valuation as the stock now looks expensive. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $70 Bil company with $6.6 Bil in revenue currently trading at $326.37.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 13.8% and operating margin of 22.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.2
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of 66.7 and P/EBIT multiple of 49.2
- Has returned (median) 94.5% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See ADSK Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to ride the momentum if the fundamentals check out – for ADSK, see Buy or Sell ADSK Stock – we are vary of bull traps. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and ADSK drops 20-30% to $228.46 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Autodesk (ADSK) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: ADSK provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software, including civil engineering solutions for land development, transportation, and environmental projects, distributed directly and via resellers worldwide.
2022 Inflation Shock
- ADSK stock fell 52.0% from a high of $342.27 on 25 August 2021 to $164.31 on 16 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $326.37 on 5 September 2025 $326.37
| ADSK | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -52.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- ADSK stock fell 35.5% from a high of $210.76 on 19 February 2020 to $136.00 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 June 2020
| ADSK | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.5% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 81 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- ADSK stock fell 24.7% from a high of $157.20 on 24 August 2018 to $118.32 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 12 February 2019
| ADSK | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -24.7% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 50 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- ADSK stock fell 76.9% from a high of $51.04 on 26 December 2007 to $11.78 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 January 2014
| ADSK | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -76.9% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1767 days | 1480 days |
Worried that ADSK could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.