Is The 26% Drop In PRGS Stock, A Buying Opportunity?
Progress Software stock has fallen by 26.0% in less than a month, from levels of $64.56 on 6/24/2025 to $47.79 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Progress Software passes basic quality checks. However, it only has one past instance where it dipped sharply (>30% in 30 days), and returned 44% in one year and 58% as peak return subsequently.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 13.0% |
| 3M | 36.3% |
| 6M | 14.3% |
| 12M | 44.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
PRGS had 1 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 58% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 311 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -4.7% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | PRGS Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | PRGS | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 44% | 58% | -5% | 311 | ||||
| 3092020 | -33% | -17% | 44% | 58% | -5% | 311 | ||
Progress Software Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 12.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 13.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 26.0% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 2.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 2.9 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.