How Could Brexit Impact Schwab’s Stock In The Near Term?

-2.77%
Downside
75.01
Market
72.93
Trefis
SCHW: Charles Schwab logo
SCHW
Charles Schwab

The U.K.’s decision to exit the European Union will likely have profound effects on the U.S. economy. It could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay further interest rate hikes, with futures traders assigning a minimal chance of a rate hike in July or September, and just a moderate chance of a hike by year-end.

These potential developments could have a substantial impact on the financial services sector in the U.S. Following the Brexit vote, Charles Schwab’s stock fell by almost 20%. The sentiment is in line with the expectation of a delayed rate hike, as lower yields would likely suppress brokerages’ net interest income. Interest earning asset balances, in turn, may be negatively affected due to the higher opportunity cost of holding money in financial institutions. As a result, there could be a 13% downside to our price estimate for Schwab if rate hikes are significantly delayed.

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Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com

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