Despite the setback that it faced in 2011 due to a change in the pricing structure, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) continues to flourish in the U.S. as far as its streaming business is concerned. The company’s domestic streaming subscriber increased from 21.7 million at the end of 2011 to 27.1 million by the end of 2012.  The growth in streaming subscribers is being driven by the broader trends of media consumption over the Internet, increasing broadband penetration, higher download speeds and growth in connected devices. In addition, Netflix has leveraged its content investment and good device reach to expand rapidly in the U.S. We expect the trend to continue and forecast Netflix’s U.S. streaming subscriber base to reach close to 45 million by the end of our forecast period.
Increasing Broadband Penetration & Demand For Internet Media
At the end of 2011, Internet penetration in the U.S. stood close to 80% with around 245 million Internet users.  Internet penetration is on the rise and customers are dropping their DSL Internet and shifting to high speed broadband connections. This is the reason why AT&T (NYSE:T) has been losing DSL subscribers and cable companies such as Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) are adding more and more broadband subscribers every quarter. The growth in broadband subscriptions is one of the factors that will drive the demand for video consumption over the Internet. Netflix will continue to benefit from this trend as there is still room for broadband penetration to grow.
In addition, smartphone and tablet sales are growing rapidly. Laptops are getting slimmer with the growing popularity of ultrabooks and demand for traditional desktop computers is dropping. There is value for Netflix in this shift. Having multiple devices that are connected to the Internet, easy to use, mobile and sleek, perks up the appetite and desire for streaming video content. As a result, Netflix now constitutes almost 30% of the peak Internet traffic in the U.S. 
The growing demand from streaming is evident from the fact that almost all pay-TV companies are making efforts to complement their traditional pay-TV packages with streaming. For instance, Comcast has started its streaming service Xfinity Streampix, which is available to its subscribers for an additional charge of $4.99 per month. Time Warner Cable is offering a live TV streaming app and Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) acquired Blockbuster to enter the streaming arena. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) (in partnership with Redbox) are also offering their streaming services for low prices. The expected growth in the streaming industry is huge and Netflix will be a key beneficiary.
Netflix’s First Mover Advantage & Content Investment
Although competition is increasing, Netflix has the first mover advantage as it pioneered the subscription streaming service. The company started the service as an add-on feature to its regular DVD by-mail rental service. However, the customer response was tremendous and the number of streaming hours grew exponentially. This prompted Netflix to launch a standalone streaming service in the U.S. ahead of its competitors. The number of titles that Netflix currently offers far exceeds that of its competitors. In addition, Netflix has been investing in original content along with striking some exclusive deals.
During its Q1 2013 earnings announcement, Netflix stated that its content advantage was the biggest driver of its U.S. streaming subscriber growth. The company has been adding some original and exclusive programming to its streaming library, which seems to be paying off. TV series such as House of Cards, Lilyhammer and Arrested development are drawing lot of audience and attracting customers to sign up. In fact, Netflix has effectively marketed these exclusive shows to maintain its subscriber momentum. Given this success, it appears that Netflix would rather pay a large sum for exclusive, original and popular series rather than buying a big programming package (older content) for the same amount.
Besides some of the exclusive shows that we mentioned above, Netflix also signed a deal with Disney (NYSE:DIS) last year to gain exclusive access to some of its content once the contract between Starz and Disney expires in 2015 (see What Are The Implications Of Netflix’s Deal With Disney?). During the first quarter of 2013, Netflix continued to expand its streaming content through deals with Turner Broadcasting, Warner Brothers Television Group, DreamWorks Animation and Hasbro Studios.
These efforts are leading to immense cost pressures on the company, and as a result its content acquisition costs (as % of revenues), have skyrocketed from close to 21% in 2011 to more than 40% in 2012. However, these investments are necessary for subscriber growth to continue, and Netflix’s margins should improve as the fixed content costs will be spread over a larger revenue base.
The Significance Of U.S. Streaming Subscriber Growth
We estimate that Netflix’s U.S. streaming service constitutes close to 60% of its value. The number of U.S. streaming subscribers is one of the most critical business metrics for the company and has dictated its stock performance in the past.
Let’s take a brief look at how its future performance can influence the company’s value. If Netflix is able to maintain its lead and no competitor matches the depth of its content, the company may cross 55 million U.S. streaming subscribers by the end of our forecast period. Such a growth trajectory would imply more than 10-15% upside to our current price estimate. However, if the competition moderates and Netflix’s subscriber growth stays flat at around 40 million, it would imply roughly 10% downside to our current price estimate.
Overall, we remain positive about Netflix’s subscriber growth even though we believe that the market may be overvaluing the company. There are still cost concerns and Netflix’s business in the international markets remains unprofitable while its DVD subscriber base continues to decline steadily.
Our price estimate for Netflix stands at $133, implying a discount of about 40% to the market price.Notes:
- Netflix’s SEC Filings [↩]
- Latest data available from Internet World Stats [↩]
- Netflix gobbles a third of peak Internet traffic in North America, CNET News, Nov 7 2012 [↩]