Android, Chrome Can Push Google Past $600

September 9th, 2011 by Trefis Team
+0.10%
Upside
168
Market
168
Trefis
GOOG: Alphabet logo
GOOG
Alphabet

Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) search market share slipped slightly in July to 65.1% from 65.5% in June going by ComScore estimates, [1] but it still commands the highest market share over competitors like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Bing and Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), both of which saw slight gains during the same period. Growing adoption of Android operating system (OS) for mobile devices, quicker searches through Google Instant, and increasing use of Google Chrome browser have all aided in maintaining Google’s leadership in the global online search space.

While we estimate Google’s search market share will increase from 69.5% in 2012 to 72.8% by the end of our forecast period, Trefis members expect an increase from 72.7% in 2012 to 74.4% during the same period. The member estimates imply an upside of 25% to the Trefis price estimate for Google’s stock.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $596 for Google’s stock, about 15% above the current market price.

Relevant Articles
  1. Beating S&P 500 by 37% Since The Start Of 2023, Where Is Alphabet Stock Headed?
  2. Beating The S&P 500 By 40% Since The Start Of 2023, What To Expect From Alphabet Stock In Q4?
  3. After 50% Move This Year Alphabet Stock To Outperform The Estimates In Q3
  4. Alphabet Stock Outperformed The Street Expectations In Q2
  5. What To Expect From Alphabet Stock ?
  6. Alphabet Stock Lost 10% In One Week, What’s Next?

Google Dominates Mobile Search Market

Google’s growth in the mobile search market is much faster than the overall search market. It unequivocally leads the mobile search market with a share of 97%, [2] while its overall market share is around 66%. Google has mainly Android OS to thank for this success which has brought a significant rise in advertising revenues for the firm. In the last quarter, Google reported increases in both aggregate paid clicks and cost-per-click, which grew by 18% and 12% respectively year-on-year. (See Google Shares Jump on Earnings, Fully Valued at $600) The rise is also partly attributable to faster searches through the Google Instant feature, which is designed to reduce 2 to 5 seconds in overall search query time.

Chrome Following Android Footsteps

Google is trying repeat the success it had with Android OS now with Chrome, which is slowly gaining ground in the browser market that is dominated by Microsoft’s Internet Explorer (IE) followed by Firefox. According to Pingdom’s analysis using StatCounter data, between June 2010 and July 2011, Chrome’s market share doubled from 10% to 20%, while IE’s share declined by 20% and Firefox saw a slight decline as well. [3] The analysis further forecasts that Chrome will outperform IE and Firefox in June 2012 and will lead the browser market with 50% share in November 2012. This prediction bodes well for Google’s overall search business.

Our complete analysis for Google’s stock is here.

Notes:
  1. comScore Releases July 2011 U.S. Search Engine Rankings, August 2011 [↩]
  2. Google Mobile has 97 percent search market share in The World today, Techleash sourcing Stat Counter Global Stat Results, Aug 21, 2011 [↩]
  3. Google Chrome Shows Serious Growth, MarketingCharts, July 2011 [↩]