Alphabet (Google) Stock Lost 6.2% In One Week, What To Expect?

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Alphabet

Alphabet (Google’s) stock (NASDAQ: GOOG) has lost 6.2% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.9%). However, it has outperformed the broader markets over the last ten days (3.1% vs 2.1%) and one month (5.2% vs 3%). The stock markets have been volatile over the last few months due to record-high inflation figures, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Notably, the company completed its 20-for-1 stock split on Friday (last week) and will trade at a split-adjusted price today.

The global technology giant posted mixed results in the first quarter of 2022, with earnings missing the street estimates but revenues being in line. Its Google advertising segment, which contributes more than 80% of the top line, reported growth in each of the four metrics:  paid clicks, cost-per-click, impressions, and cost-per-impression. We expect the same momentum to continue in the second quarter. Overall, consensus estimates for Q2 revenues and earnings are around $70.4 billion and $26.46 respectively.

Now, is GOOG stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 59% chance of a rise in Alphabet stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last seven years. See our analysis on Alphabet (Google) Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: GOOG 5.2%, vs. S&P500 3%; Outperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Alphabet stock gained 5.2% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 3%
  • A change of 5.2% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 500 times out of 1705 in the last seven years
  • Of these 500 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 295 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: GOOG 3.1%, vs. S&P500 2.1%; Outperformed market

(32% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Alphabet stock increased 3.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 2.1%
  • A change of 3.1% or more over ten trading days is a 32% likelihood event, which has occurred 551 times out of 1707 in the last seven years
  • Of these 551 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 301 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: GOOG -6.2%, vs. S&P500 -0.9%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Alphabet stock lost 6.2% over a five-day trading period ending 07/15/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 0.9%
  • A change of -6.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 72 times out of 1707 in the last seven years
  • Of these 72 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 41 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how Alphabet (Google) Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jul 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 GOOG Return 3% -22% 192%
 S&P 500 Return 1% -20% 71%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 3% -21% 214%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/18/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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